New strain stuff.....

[MistressoftheDarkSide]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain

So,it's just a variant, nothing to see here, blah blah blah..... I'm pretty sanguine about this stuff but dropping this late at night as a headline right now..... I'm getting mightily pissed off with the uncertainty and the subtle fear mongering......

Any thoughts?

^As an aside since they talk about the immunocompromised patient that had the mutation then we know where it originated? It might be better not to say for some reason but it is known I suppose?*

No, it’s just a theory.

It’s a very unusual thing to have happened and a definite explanation hasn’t been reached.

I've run through the whole thread but haven't been able to grasp why or how the new strain may be more easily transmitted.

The data has shown how its fairly quickly accounting for a higher % of cases. This means it's has an advantage over the previous one. plus the way it attaches and gets into cells has changed. It's an assumption I think? Possibly also larger clusters have been found?

If you look at slides for the south east and London on the flu report; there's a striking blue line (age 10-19) that's shooting up sharply, higher than anywhere else.

I suspect (but don't know) That was the issue over the Greenwich etc schools wanting to close. The local phe teams would have had info that concerned them hence the councils decided to act. We had a similar scenario play out in the NE in September but that was mainly due to university students all arriving at once; different restrictions came in for a few weeks, basically teir 4 but the shops were open.

Place marking

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/20/fast-spreading-covid-variant-in-england-uk?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

This is just a musing; a couple of places, including Whitty, suggest it may cause more of a cold like response. So slightly different initial symptoms. (Not necessarily a wider worse or lesser immune response thereafter though.)

If that's the case could the increase in cases be because our criteria for testing is based on other symptoms?

So those with the mild cold symptoms, haven't been tested and so have passed it on? The greater transmission is because it's camouflaged as a cold?

Thanks @NeurotreeWenceslas. Worries me that on other threads people think the government are playing politics on this mutation.

Been musing since yesterday about selection pressure.
Haven’t reached any conclusions yet, but is it possible that we’ve ‘selected’ for a virus that spreads ‘like a cold’ in the young by keeping them in schools together and not taking the same mitigation measures as other places?

Just thinking of what happens with antibiotic resistance - don’t know if viruses would be the same but I don’t see why not.

@GalOopNorth latest thinking is that this virus mutated in an immunosuppressed patient who has chronic Covid and couldn’t get rid of the virus thereby creating the perfect breeding ground for the high number of mutations we now see in this new strain.

As a simplistic theory it would make sense. Especially if a mutation trended to cause more cold like symptoms.

I don't know if the two days unsymptomatic but highly contagious part would cancel out the selection pressure?

had not has

Thinking about it again, no we haven't "selected" because it's so contagious pre symptoms. We might miss some cases but in others they might be caught.

However, if a more contagious strain, which would automatically gradually gain traction, were also to produce slightly different initial symptoms (whitty indicated it was more like a cold) and exponential number would slip through the net.

Seems a lot of hoo haa for a contagious cold.

Let’s not derail this thread.

That's the thing though. It's always caused cold symptoms in some people. Especially, apparently, children.

A cold isn't the virus, it's the immune response.

New variant or no new variant, keeping schools going since September and through the November lockdown without any meaningful mitigation measures, not even the wearing of face coverings in classrooms, and with no hope of social distancing (and consistently insisting schools were safe and schoolchildren didn’t either get infected or spread the virus), did the damage.
The release of lockdown and people’s (perfectly understandable) behaviour over the last couple of weeks in the run up to Christmas only added to it.

@bornatXmastobequiet this isn’t a schools thread. It is a science thread. There are plenty of other schools threads out there.

[quote Nc135]@bornatXmastobequiet this isn’t a schools thread. It is a science thread. There are plenty of other schools threads out there.[/quote]
And? I believe I’m allowed to post where I like on Mumsnet.
A very Merry Christmas to you.

@bornatXmastobequiet yes you can indeed but if you have a point about schools then post it on the relevant thread. Merry Christmas back.

Excellent prolonged derail @Nc135. Keep it up. I’ll continue to post what I want, where I like.

Interesting that on here I've heard people who are positive mention having backache and headaches on here recently. Certainly don't remember backache as a symptom before. That's just a few people on here recently fwiw.

Sorry poor editing by me.

Backache was the only symptom of someone I know who tested positive m.

however the cynical part of me thinks it might come in handy if you wanted to do something unpopular like cancelling Christmas meetings.
Same here!
Scare tactics worked the first time -here’s more just when people are thinking with the vaccine things can ease up.
Except it’s handed Macron a wonderful unexpected Christmas bonus do he can grandstand to his voters at the point when the rest of the EU are telling him ‘feck the fish, Manu -we 26 don’t care about that’

No, they'd be silly economically and from a long term behavioural POV to create a media scare storm without reason.

They don't have all the data and answers yet.