New strain stuff.....

[MistressoftheDarkSide]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain

So,it's just a variant, nothing to see here, blah blah blah..... I'm pretty sanguine about this stuff but dropping this late at night as a headline right now..... I'm getting mightily pissed off with the uncertainty and the subtle fear mongering......

Any thoughts?

How much bad news can people cope with at the busiest time of year for families and people in general?

I think Red, people are trying to absorb the first shock and now the effects of the travel ban will sink in...

It terrifies me more than the virus due to medicines, food etc that will be on those lorries.

The number of new cases reported today is astronomical. I think it was 35,000. That is do scary because in about 1 month to 5 weeks the deaths will shoot up. It will be s miserable New Year for some.

@TheRubyRedshoes

How much bad news can people cope with at the busiest time of year for families and people in general?

I think Red, people are trying to absorb the first shock and now the effects of the travel ban will sink in...

It terrifies me more than the virus due to medicines, food etc that will be on those lorries.

I have a horrible feeling that people will be stroppier and angrier on MN about undelivered christmas presents before the penny about food and medicine properly starts to drop...

Guardian reporting that millions will be lost just from seafood not being able to be sold in France. It's all in lorries at the moment

@sparkle17 I can’t read the guardian anymore. Just makes me more and more depressed.

@NeurotreeWenceslas I’ve read the links. I can’t see where it says they all arose at once.

@bumbleymummy www.newscientist.com/article/2263077-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-new-variant-of-coronavirus-in-the-uk/

This new scientist article discusses it in relative layman's terms.

Thank you science bods - your collective knowledge has enlightened me more than any other source.

It’s interesting that they’re saying that we don’t have any evidence it’s more contagious. It may be that recent surges are due to super spreader events where the new variant got lucky.

It sounds like Boris and co. have been somewhat irresponsible in their communication of it and what it means.

Thanks @79andnotout but I don’t need it in layman’s terms. I just haven’t seen where the idea that all the mutations arose at once came from.

@bumbleymummy

Thanks *@79andnotout* but I don’t need it in layman’s terms. I just haven’t seen where the idea that all the mutations arose at once came from.

I was just reading this article that addresses the potential origin of the multiple mutations at once. Really interesting reading. virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563

@bumbleymummy I'm not sure any press releases have said they've happened all at once, but this is the first stain they've sequenced that has a lot of mutations in it. Usually there are only a small number. And I believe there is a lot of sequencing going on and has been since the beginning of the pandemic, so this virus is highly unusual. That's my gist of it anyway.

That article is several days old by now though so they should know more about how it behaves already. I'm assuming they are more worried about its contagion now after mapping the growth of it in the population.

Thanks @PurpleDaisies yes, I read that one this morning but again, it doesn’t say that 17 mutations all arose in one go. I was wondering if there was something else I had missed.

paperscissorsrock
“Yes, but by comparison, this arose with ~17 mutations all in one go. This is unusual and worrying.
Is there a precedence for this to happen? How would there be so many mutations in one go?”

This is the first one with so many mutations in one go that has survived.

The leading hypothesis right now is that it arose in an immunocompromised patient who had it chronically. They couldn’t shift the virus so it just went through a lot of replications and evolved to “escape” whatever immuno response the patient could mount.

This gave it a lot of opportunities to develop mutations at multiple sites.

The worry now is that when you have an extremely infectious form of a virus which is running rapidly through a population, it has more and more opportunities to mutate.

It did arise all at once.
It is seen as a “long arm” on the phylogenetic tree.

I'm in Herts bordering North London and for the first time since March I'm now hearing of lots of positive test results. I have family members with it, my children's schools are reporting daily positive tests over all year groups, it is rife in both my kids primary and secondary schools. I now know lots of people personally with it.

In March, April, May I knew no one affected.

However, children are suffering headache and upset tummy and adults mild flu symptoms so IMO the new strain, although more virulent is not more serious and there are no breathing difficulty reports.

More like bad cold/flu in the worse case.

In fact my FIL who is at 75 quite vulnerable would never have known had he not had to take a test as a close contact. 11 days in and he feels weak and has an annoying cough

Thanks @79andnotout. I was replying to a PP who said they were concerned because 17 mutations had arisen in one go. I was just wondering if I’d missed something.

RedToothBrush
APF have tweeted in the last hour that the German government has said the new strain is fine with the vaccine. Which is good at least.

The only thing I can think of here is that it has been sent straight to the vaccine manufacturers and don’t forget that the Pfizer vaccine is with BioNtech, who are German-based.

If this is true it will be a massive relief, although I’d love to hear them say it has not reduced efficacy of the vaccine.

Thread by the statistical geneticist leading the Covid-19 genomics initiative at the Sanger Institute genomics research centre.

One of the key questions about the new variant (B.1.1.7) is whether there is conclusive evidence that it is more transmissible. I don't think we are absolutely certain yet, but I am pretty confident that it is more transmissible.

...there are three clear differences with B.1.1.7. First, it appeared with 17 coding mutations compared to its most recently observed ancestor, see Figure 2 in virological.org/t/preliminary-genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-the-uk-defined-by-a-novel-set-of-spike-mutations/563. This is unprecedented in the pandemic: it isn't just any old lineage.

Full thread: mobile.twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1340716901610172416

Absolutely brilliant science journalist
Kai kumpferschmidt.

You can follow him on Twitter.

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/mutant-coronavirus-united-kingdom-sets-alarms-its-importance-remains-unclear

I've run through the whole thread but haven't been able to grasp why or how the new strain may be more easily transmitted.

I realise maybe no one knows for sure but are there any educated guesses which may or may not play out as more data is available?

My DH currently has Covid and I can't help but be so worried about him transmitting it to DC and I once his isolation in our room is over. He also has a very public facing job who want him back as soon as isolation ends , he wears PPE but him and 95% of his workforce caught it all at once despite this PPE and other measures. He feels sure him and his colleagues follows all their procedures.

We provide support for the my frail dad and he's having to manage without us atm but I need to get back to him soon and again I'm terrified of passing it to him. We socially distance and wear masks but I'm concerned this won't be enough if I unknowingly catch it from DH.

Sorry to make this about me and my situation.....

Ah, I see where you got that from. It doesn’t mean they arose all at once though.

[quote everythingthelighttouches]Absolutely brilliant science journalist
Kai kumpferschmidt.

You can follow him on Twitter.

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/12/mutant-coronavirus-united-kingdom-sets-alarms-its-importance-remains-unclear[/quote]
This is interesting

As an aside since they talk about the immunocompromised patient that had the mutation then we know where it originated? It might be better not to say for some reason but it is known I suppose?