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New strain stuff.....

734 replies

MistressoftheDarkSide · 18/12/2020 23:43

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain

So,it's just a variant, nothing to see here, blah blah blah..... I'm pretty sanguine about this stuff but dropping this late at night as a headline right now..... I'm getting mightily pissed off with the uncertainty and the subtle fear mongering......

Any thoughts?

OP posts:
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12
userxx · 20/12/2020 19:44

@RedToothBrush Hmmmm. Interesting and slightly depressing. Family are going to a pub in Cheshire east on Xmas day. I'll tell them to be extra vigilante.

everythingthelighttouches · 20/12/2020 19:58

coffeeandcroissant

Also see

www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/threat-assessment-brief-rapid-increase-sars-cov-2-variant-united-kingdom

The discussion in the reports about viral load are worrying.

B3ttyBoop · 20/12/2020 20:00

@everythingthelighttouches

Yes, it’s real. I’ve been looking at the structures all week while we wait to hear on the cell biology (I presume some preliminary evidence from cell assays has just been presented to the Prime Minister).

Yes, there are mutations in tiny parts of the virus all the time. Most are inconsequential and you only really hear about something because it has been a change making the virus more able to pass between people (transmissible). Even then , it doesn’t necessarily need to be a worry.

However, I don’t like the look of this at all. It has 17 mutations and are in the spike protein . That is a lot.

One mutation in particular, called N501Y, is a change in the receptor binding domain, which is crucial for the virus to lock onto our cells. There are a couple of other mutations which are a worry which may also improve the viruses ability to get into cells.

Doubtful it would be more deadly/dangerous ( virulent). Possibly it may reduce vaccine efficacy but we really have to wait for the cell biology.

I expect we’ll hear tomorrow.

Oh sod. It's going to take months for the vaccines to reach the majority and in the meantime there are folk who are ignoring self isolation rules. And there are those who are willing to take risks over the holidays.
MarshaBradyo · 20/12/2020 20:04

@RedToothBrush

APF have tweeted in the last hour that the German government has said the new strain is fine with the vaccine. Which is good at least.
This is very good?
MarshaBradyo · 20/12/2020 20:04

I mean really very good as I’m we can put that concern away now. ? Because I’m not an expert in any way

Gothamgirl1970 · 20/12/2020 20:06

Not trying to be a skeptic but how does Germany know?

Poorlykitten · 20/12/2020 20:10

Was died this mean for freight coming in from abroad (food and goods)?

Poorlykitten · 20/12/2020 20:10

*does!?

PaperScissorsRock · 20/12/2020 20:20

Thank you for all these informative posts.

@everythingthelighttouches
Yes, but by comparison, this arose with ~17 mutations all in one go. This is unusual and worrying.
Is there a precedence for this to happen? How would there be so many mutations in one go?

itsgettingweird · 20/12/2020 20:21

France have more reasons than the virus to stop all transport.

Every decision is politics.

TheKeatingFive · 20/12/2020 20:24

Yes, but by comparison, this arose with ~17 mutations all in one go. This is unusual and worrying.

Why is it worrying?

NeurotreeWenceslas · 20/12/2020 20:37

If it's changed that dramatically;

  1. Could it again? (I guess yes)
  1. The spikes, are they now finding other ways to get into cells that aren't just to do with the Ace receptor cells?
  1. Could that be an issue in schools?
One reason children are supposed to be less affected is fewer ace receptors in the nose (?)
  1. Do I have the above assertions right?
FingonTheValiant · 20/12/2020 20:38

Em777, yes it’s passengers and merchandise.

Nellodee · 20/12/2020 20:43

Hmm... how could anyone know about the efficacy of the vaccine on the new strain, unless they'd run tests on the vaccine in the country that the new strain was in? So how would Germany know if say, Oxford, didn't?

I suppose they could say that it should work "theoretically", but I can't see how they could say it would work in practise unless they had a data set collected in the UK in the last couple of months.

Chaotic45 · 20/12/2020 20:43

@Gothamgirl1970

Not trying to be a skeptic but how does Germany know?
I know what you mean. I'm not clear how they could possibly know that at this stage. Maybe the nuance of what was said has got lost in translation- as our experts have said they feel it's 'unlikely to affect vaccines' .
79andnotout · 20/12/2020 20:53

They've probably modelled the binding site of the antibody against the anticipated changes in the shape/chemical properties of the mutations of the virus and predicted whether it has an affect on the efficacy of the vaccine. That would be my (educated) guess.

KatySun · 20/12/2020 20:53

It is the fact that goods and freight are now not going to get across the Channel that is worrying me. I mean, with a No Deal Brexit, the worry was delays. But basically this lets nothing through.

Anyway, I need to stop reading as getting freaked out. I think the next few weeks and possibly months will be challenging.

willsantausesantatize · 20/12/2020 21:11

@KatySun

It is the fact that goods and freight are now not going to get across the Channel that is worrying me. I mean, with a No Deal Brexit, the worry was delays. But basically this lets nothing through.

Anyway, I need to stop reading as getting freaked out. I think the next few weeks and possibly months will be challenging.

Agree ! It's scary times.
bumbleymummy · 20/12/2020 21:12

@TheKeatingFive

Yes, but by comparison, this arose with ~17 mutations all in one go. This is unusual and worrying.

Why is it worrying?

Where does it say they arose all in one go?
RedToothBrush · 20/12/2020 21:13

@KatySun

It is the fact that goods and freight are now not going to get across the Channel that is worrying me. I mean, with a No Deal Brexit, the worry was delays. But basically this lets nothing through.

Anyway, I need to stop reading as getting freaked out. I think the next few weeks and possibly months will be challenging.

Yep. This should be freaking people out as much as the new strain. If not more.

The fact its clearly not....

NeurotreeWenceslas · 20/12/2020 21:17

Where does it say they arose all in one go?

In the paper linked up thread. (First one I think?)

NeurotreeWenceslas · 20/12/2020 21:18

Red if feels like fucking Armageddon tbh.

Lex345 · 20/12/2020 21:25

I have a question, sorry if it is stupid...

Does COVID bind to the same receptors as the target receptors for ACE inhibitors like Ramipril? As Ramipril doesn't work for some people (I am not clear on why this is, whether it is issues with ACE binding or resistent hypertension-the latter renders my question mute), are there any studies on correlation between COVID severity/resistance to ACE inhibitors? I know some studies were done as to whether taking ACE inhibitors increased disease severity, but it was found that it did not increase the risk.

Just curious...

Gothamgirl1970 · 20/12/2020 21:26

@Chaotic45.

I agree with you but speculation and the hypothesises that all the leaders of many countries have made with regard to this pandemic have been proven inaccurate time and time again. I won’t bore everyone and insult anyone’s intelligence by pointing out all that every one of us already knows and has lived through but the fact that most countries in Europe and also America’s governments knew/ had information about the pandemic way before the public was informed and did nothing, wash your hands, masks, no masks, work from home, the economy is dying get into your offices and spend. For the rest of my life I will never forget Cummings interview, I’d love anyone to remind me of one edict or solid information that has been correct.
I’m no scientist and there are many more informed, educated and intelligent people on this thread who are graciously helping me understand in plain English what the hell we are facing here.
What I do know is I don’t know if the government of the U.K. and many other countries are completely and utterly in the dark or misleading us but whatever it is to me it is gross incompetence at best and the equivalent of corporate man slaughter at worst.
Things I can work out are the simple maths of how fast they can vaccinate and at the rate they are going (and I am considered high risk) using the vaccine calculator I won’t get it until April and there seem to be 12million people ahead of me.

Combine that with the recent revival of free tuition plus bursaries as an incentive for people to go to university to become nurses on a “fast track” which means they would qualify in circa 3 years when we need nurses NOW to administer the vaccine faster says to me (rightly or wrongly) that someone in government expects a huge need for nurses not only now but for some time to come.

I’m usually the friend that is called when someone close to me has some kind of issue that is chaotic or life changing because I’m a steady Freddie in a crisis and can take charge when they are crumbling emotionally and can’t cope, and know that I will do all I can to help with no judgement.

But this time, we are all in the same boat facing the same thing without in my opinion adequate information, assistance, leadership, or plan. I’m scared, really scared, and it seems like as the hours go by today the U.K. is being cut off, the list of countries that will refuse us growing and growing.

I have learned more today from this thread than I have since I was first aware of the virus in February.

Thanks to all who have generously shared their information and thank you for making me feel less alone.

BreadSaucery · 20/12/2020 21:28

I know of one craft market organiser company that arranged alternative markets in the Wrexham area when they weren’t permitted in England. So stallholders from the Wirral, Cheshire, Lancashire etc were encouraged over the Welsh border at the end of Nov as “businesses are permitted to travel and trade”.
Not a huge jump to come to the conclusion that any strains already circulating in that area were transmitted that way. As soon as markets opened up again in the NW of England the same traders were back on craft/food markets.