New strain stuff.....

[MistressoftheDarkSide]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain

So,it's just a variant, nothing to see here, blah blah blah..... I'm pretty sanguine about this stuff but dropping this late at night as a headline right now..... I'm getting mightily pissed off with the uncertainty and the subtle fear mongering......

Any thoughts?

I do agree its worth trying to slow it down. But the expectation that you can stop it is unrealistic. The horse has bolted.

That's what I think @Red. All the evidence is showing very strongly that we cannot hold it back via even the strictest of lockdowns. Unless we go for something even stricter than the spring (and enforce it??) the horse has indeed bolted and the likely outcome for most of us who aren't at the front of the queue for the vaccine is that we catch it and cross our fingers that we don't need hospital care because they're not going to be able to cope. Which is quite scary.

I think Matt Hancock knew this in his interview on the BBC earlier today. He looked stressed and like he knew there was no good way forward.

I'm not sure if this twitter thread helps at all, but it seems like a good thread to leave it on and I thought it was an interesting read.

twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1340359989395861506

"On average, the coronavirus accumulates about two changes per month in its genome"

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/pandemic-virus-slowly-mutating-it-getting-more-dangerous

Seems it mutates all the time...

Perhaps we need something akin to the old TB sanatoriums?

My then boyfriend spent 12 weeks on a TB ward in this country in the mid 1970s. It was a very pleasant place, and there were quite a few other patients (we thought he picked it up in North Africa - I didn’t get it).

Well my daughter and her dad were only just allowed into his home country an hour ago. They flew there and everyone onboard the flight who didn't hold a German passport were put back on the flight and returned back to the UK. This happened 2 hours ago.

“ most of us who aren't at the front of the queue for the vaccine is that we catch it and cross our fingers that we don't need hospital care”

I’m happy enough with taking that risk. The vast vast majority of younger people with no underlying conditions have it mildly or with no symptoms at all.

Do we know where it started?

Did it come into U.K. via Kent or start there?

@MarshaBradyo I have been wondering myself. If this originated in, say the north west, then likely it originated there. But as it is Kent and the South East how do we know if it originated there or came in from mainland Europe?

I think looking at the twitter thread that I posted it the data currently suggests it has originated in the UK.

Denmark, which also does a lot of genome sequencing only has a few cases, which suggests it probably spread there from the UK. Might need a bit of time to look at what is happening in the rest of Europe.

@RedToothBrush What are your suspicions?

*Orangeblossom77777

"On average, the coronavirus accumulates about two changes per month in its genome"
Seems it mutates all the time...*

Yes, but by comparison, this arose with ~17 mutations all in one go. This is unusual and worrying.

RedToothBrush

Yes, the report from COG ( which I posted this morning) shows it is already present in 50 locations around the U.K.

coffeeandcroissants

That NERVTAG report is very interesting. Quite a lot of new information in there.

[quote userxx]@RedToothBrush What are your suspicions? [/quote]
New strain in Wrexham has been spreading into NW England. Cases are going to skyrocket in the next week or two in Cheshire. Its current T2 but I'm expecting it to probably go to T4 next week. It will lucky if it gets away with T3.

APF have tweeted in the last hour that the German government has said the new strain is fine with the vaccine. Which is good at least.

Hi Mumsnet minds

Sorry if this is a stupid question but all I see are reports about flights. What about coaches, cars, ferries etc?

I am a bit hmm though at how fast the EU is shutting flights down. This virus strain has been around since September and has already been detected in at least the Netherlands. And why on earth did we not do this back in Feb when it was rife in Italy

Interesting that some of the travel bans are only 48 hours. Its not like its going away if its this easily spread. Wonder if they need more information on how dangerous it is.

France has closed the border (from midnight), not just flights. So no trains or ferries either. Belgium has stopped trains. Not sure about the others, sorry.

@FingonTheValiant

France has closed the border (from midnight), not just flights. So no trains or ferries either. Belgium has stopped trains. Not sure about the others, sorry.

I’m reading their stopping accompanied freight too — so this means the lorries going through the tunnel? Really bad news if true.

Sorry follow on question. What if you are a permanent resident card holder trying to get back to the U.K.? Can that work or must you have a British passport?

Following

Thanks for this thread. I'm really struggling to get my head around so much of this and the simple explanations help.

Mind if I ask a q, but feel free to tell me if not appropriate here as this thread is excellent and I don't wish to derail it. We have a DS at nursery and no other contacts with anyone. We pop to shops briefly when necessary and are very careful with masks, hand gel then washing when back home. With great nervousness we sent DS back to nursery after the first lockdown but he's been fine and they haven't had to send any whole groups home to isolate. We see my 76yo DM in a support bubble and are due to see her for Xmas. Should this new news affect what we are doing? Has the risk changed with DS at nursery? I have that fear all over again.

@everythingthelighttouches

Thank you for all your information.

@FingonTheValiant

France has closed the border (from midnight), not just flights. So no trains or ferries either. Belgium has stopped trains. Not sure about the others, sorry.

And this is what you should be more worried about... not the new strain....