New strain stuff.....

[MistressoftheDarkSide]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain

So,it's just a variant, nothing to see here, blah blah blah..... I'm pretty sanguine about this stuff but dropping this late at night as a headline right now..... I'm getting mightily pissed off with the uncertainty and the subtle fear mongering......

Any thoughts?

Sorry to be adding more worrying stuff to this thread but Ravi Gupta tweeted today that they have first in-vitro (meaning, in the lab not in real people) evidence that one of the mutations in the new variant helps escape antibodies from people who have had Covid with the "old" strain.

twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1337373686874198016

The good news here I guess is that it's only "reduced susceptibility" which means you still get some protection from it.

To summarise, if you had Covid with the old strain, you can still get ill again if you catch the new strain, but it is likely possible that the illness is going to be less severe (my conclusion, remains to be shown).

Ah @NeurotreeWenceslas I didn't realise that. I left academia a decade ago and I'm a bit rusty!

@tobee ah did we stop travel to and from Denmark with the mink scare?

I just cannot help thinking that this new strain must be rife across the continent. The Netherlands already say that have it. So why now closing travel. I am upset because my kids are currently flying back from Italy having seen their grandparents for 24 hours (they all had negative test certificates). My DH lives in the Netherlands and I have no idea when will see him again. I know it pales into insignificance but my nerves are just jingling now. It’s like one thing after another.

Oh and we have brexit to look forward to too

Nellodee

OK. Reassurances.

The variant described in the mouse model is not the same as the one which has just arisen in humans in England.

It was designed specifically to infect mice so they could be used as a model for us to study covid. It does share this same mutation N501Y but there are other differences.

Sorry to be adding more worrying stuff to this thread but Ravi Gupta tweeted today that they have first in-vitro (meaning, in the lab not in real people) evidence that one of the mutations in the new variant helps escape antibodies from people who have had Covid with the "old" strain

The Tweet you linked isn't from today though. It's from 9 days ago, a long time in current circumstances.

Nellodee

Second point.

The variant in South Africa is not the same as ours either. Again, it shares this one mutation: N501Y.

In South Africa right now, the young people are having something a bit like the American Spring Break (the Rage?) so they are out partying hard. It is not surprising that suddenly they have a lot more cases in that age group. But like our lot going back to Uni in September.

I can’t comment on severity in that age group because I haven’t seen any proper evidence of it. It could be an artifact of just a lot more cases..

I’m afraid on this question we just have to wait for the data

Keep you eyes on what happens next in Cheshire East, Cheshire West, Trafford and Warrington.

They have % increases I would not expect to be occurring based on demographics.

Could be wrong, but I have my suspicions...

Will there be a review of the tiers this week? Or will they leave it till after Christmas?

Many thanks for responding. Presumably, if this variant was as bad news on the virulence front as as it may be on the contagion front, we'd be aware of it by now.

@79andnotout

Ah *@NeurotreeWenceslas* I didn't realise that. I left academia a decade ago and I'm a bit rusty!

Well, that was based on wiki. It must be v recent. I was still working off the lichen theory.

@RedToothBrush just off a call with my DH in the Netherlands and he says that they had 13,000 new cases today. The highest since the start. I have my suspicions too.

@willsantausesantatize

Will there be a review of the tiers this week? Or will they leave it till after Christmas?

30th December is the next review.

Summary of NERVTAG view on new SARS-CoV-2 variant, from 18 Dec, with link to full document in tweet.
mobile.twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1340694809997160452

RedToothBrush

Interesting about Cheshire, will keep a look out. To be honest, I expect us all to see a shift in numbers across the UK by Christmas Day ( depressingly).

Whoever said it’s probably across Europe, I agree. It’s probably only because we have the best surveillance system that we’ve picked it up.

@IcedPurple

The Tweet you linked isn't from today though. It's from 9 days ago, a long time in current circumstances.

Haha, true, you're right. Don't know why it was showing up as from today for me.

In any case, still useful info for those who haven't seen it yet.

I've a Covid positive husband isolating in our bedroom and due to be 'released' on Christmas Day.

We are worried that maybe he has the 'new strain' and that he will still be infectious .

He's just called me and asked if he's ok to wrap my Christmas presents bless that man! I told him to hold off for now- I worry about him infecting the gifts and paper. Oh this is all so horrible!

I should add I don't give a fig about Christmas presents or wrapping I just want my husband back .

Whilst everyone is looking at London

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55384502
Covid: New coronavirus variant 'in every part of Wales'

Have a look at
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

That purple spot in Wrexham is brand new.

Then zoom in. The ward closest to it in the English side in Cheshire West is also a significant hotspot. This is T2.

Its already probably too late to stop the new strain spreading...

Cases in Cheshire West are up 70% in a week....

@RedToothBrush

Whilst everyone is looking at London

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55384502
Covid: New coronavirus variant 'in every part of Wales'

Have a look at
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

That purple spot in Wrexham is brand new.

Then zoom in. The ward closest to it in the English side in Cheshire West is also a significant hotspot. This is T2.

Its already probably too late to stop the new strain spreading...

It's still worth containing the worst areas so that if we can't curtail the spread then at least not all areas are in the shit at the same time.

Say Glasgow has 10 cases and it doubles every week:

Week 0: 10
Week 1: 20
Week 2: 40
Week 3: 80
Week 4: 160

If 150 people bring the new strain for Christmas then that loses them a month to prepare, bring in measures and vaccinate the elderly.

The 30th seems late if the mutant virus gets really bad in tier 2 or 3 places. Reviews not till then? Seems daft but I guess they know what they are doing! ..
🤔

@everythingthelighttouches

Nellodee

Second point.

The variant in South Africa is not the same as ours either. Again, it shares this one mutation: N501Y.

In South Africa right now, the young people are having something a bit like the American Spring Break (the Rage?) so they are out partying hard. It is not surprising that suddenly they have a lot more cases in that age group. But like our lot going back to Uni in September.

I can’t comment on severity in that age group because I haven’t seen any proper evidence of it. It could be an artifact of just a lot more cases..

I’m afraid on this question we just have to wait for the data

This is great and backed up by another

Dr Emma Hodcroft
@firefoxx66
·
19 Dec
Is the new UK variant the same as the new South African variant (501Y.V2)?

No.

They both share the same mutation in spike: N501Y (N->Y at position 501). However, the 2 variants have arisen separately.

Hah! They haven't a clue. They made the wrong call by leaving any of East Sussex in tier 2 - if Eastbourne continues on it's current trajectory it will have the same number of cases per 100,000 as the current 10th worst borough.

In a week, that is.