Page 10 | New strain stuff.....

MistressoftheDarkSide · 2020-12-18T23:43:12+00:00

[[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain]] So,it's just a variant, nothing to see here, blah blah blah..... I'm pretty sanguine about this stuff but dropping this late at night as a headline right now..... I'm getting mightily pissed off with the uncertainty and the subtle fear mongering...... Any thoughts?

NeurotreeWenceslas · 20/12/2020 12:05

That's what I thought 79, but apparently the theory has been rearranged to include mutualism, commensalism and parasites.

As my kids are not living in symbiosis right now it's a rabbit hole I'm having limited success with.

This is interesting and easy to read though.

www.livescience.com/53272-what-is-a-virus.html

Viruses are useful to humans as they've helped us develop technology such as vaccines etc. Not symbiosis though.

NeurotreeWenceslas · 20/12/2020 12:07

Rotavirus vaccine, which is live, has been shown to protect against the development of coeliac disease.

Nellodee · 20/12/2020 12:09

I have a lot of questions about this new mutation. I know no-one can answer them, but I want to know:

How much more contagious is it?
Does it have a higher hospitalisation rate?
How does it affect the death rate?
Are it's effects still as dependent on age?
How long will it take to find these things out?
Does "There is no evidence that it's got any more dangerous" mean "We don't have any data" or "We have a bit of data and it looks like it hasn't got substantially more dangerous."
If we don't have any data, how long will it take to get a vague idea of whether we should be worried or not?
What studies are being done to figure these things out?
If we have no idea whether this is substantially more dangerous than before, is the government planning on
a) being cautious until we do know or
b) treating it as though it was the same virulence as before and hoping they're right?

tobee · 20/12/2020 12:13

Just been catching up on here this morning.

Thank you to the posters for taking the time to answer questions. Also to those asking questions, and generally keeping this thread going.

userxx · 20/12/2020 12:35

@Nellodee From what someone told me working at a hospital in the north of England, it's a lot more contagious but seems weaker in terms of making people ill.

everythingthelighttouches · 20/12/2020 13:11

How much more contagious is it? 70%
Does it have a higher hospitalisation rate? too early to say
How does it affect the death rate? too early to say
Are it's effects still as dependent on age? too early to say
How long will it take to find these things out? i’d guess 2-6 weeks, different time for different types of info
Does "There is no evidence that it's got any more dangerous" mean "We don't have any data" yes or "We have a bit of data and it looks like it hasn't got substantially more dangerous." no, but it would be unlikely it’s got more dangerous from what we already know
If we don't have any data, how long will it take to get a vague idea of whether we should be worried or not?
What studies are being done to figure these things out? i listed a load on about page 3 of this thread
If we have no idea whether this is substantially more dangerous than before, is the government planning on
a) being cautious until we do know yes, tier 4 or
b) treating it as though it was the same virulence as before and hoping they're right? no

MarshaBradyo · 20/12/2020 13:17

Everything thank you!

QueenStromba · 20/12/2020 13:21

@Nellodee

I have a lot of questions about this new mutation. I know no-one can answer them, but I want to know:

How much more contagious is it?
Does it have a higher hospitalisation rate?
How does it affect the death rate?
Are it's effects still as dependent on age?
How long will it take to find these things out?
Does "There is no evidence that it's got any more dangerous" mean "We don't have any data" or "We have a bit of data and it looks like it hasn't got substantially more dangerous."
If we don't have any data, how long will it take to get a vague idea of whether we should be worried or not?
What studies are being done to figure these things out?
If we have no idea whether this is substantially more dangerous than before, is the government planning on
a) being cautious until we do know or
b) treating it as though it was the same virulence as before and hoping they're right?

Quite. I have no evidence that there are squirrels in Hyde Park but that's only because I haven't gone looking for squirrel poo in Hyde Park yet.

Yohoheaveho · 20/12/2020 13:31

seems weaker in terms of making people ill
Maybe we will look back on this as a turning point ...in a good way 🤔

vdbfamily · 20/12/2020 13:46

chaotic
It is generally thought that people shed for a few days per symptoms and a few days after which is why there has been the 10 day isolation. After that, what you asked is dead virus so not harmful but will still test positive. For people who have been in trials where they are testing regularly it has been noted that you can still test positive 3 months later so no, your husband will not be contagious for all that time but might still get a positive reading. In the NHS, for staff who are testing twice a week, once you have had Covid you are told not to test again for 3 months for this reason. But this is why there is such a problem in hospitals because we cannot shift people out either during our after their isolation period unless they are fully independent.

Yohoheaveho · 20/12/2020 13:48

Perhaps we need something akin to the old TB sanatoriums?

IrmaFayLear · 20/12/2020 14:07

I don’t understand why all the old cottage hospitals were closed. They would be perfect for covid recoverers.

Agree, Yohoheaveho - the book “The Plague and I” by Betty Macdonald describes her stay in a TB hospital in Washington State. (it’s a comedy!)

Chaotic45 · 20/12/2020 14:08

@vdbfamily thank you so much for your reply, I am so very grateful to have that information.

Where might I read more about this?

Any thoughts as to whether husband might be ok to join the rest of our household on Christmas Day or earlier? His 10 days ends at midnight on Christmas Day.

Having said that, that date runs from his NHS test, he had a positive lateral flow the day before.

I'm just mindful that until recently those with a positive test only had to isolate for 7 days.

He will of course be sticking to the full time wrt leaving the house.

He is due back to work on 29th after a relentless work slog since March and we would really love to have Christmas Day with him.

Having said that his employer has been talking about booking him a private test that needs to be negative before he goes back- sounds like they may have a long wait

Squiffany · 20/12/2020 14:13

Is @everythingthelighttouches Chris Witty in real life?

Nc135 · 20/12/2020 14:16

@Squiffany

Stircrazyschoolmum · 20/12/2020 14:17

If the virus did become milder as it becomes more transmissible then
wouldn’t it in some sense be doing the job of a vaccine by creating widespread immunity? (This is pure speculation so more than happy to be corrected!)

Following on from this logic, it would then have to mutate again to find more hosts?

everythingthelighttouches · 20/12/2020 14:18

No, I’m afraid not, although having a good chuckle at the idea of Chris Whitty having a secret mumsnet account and posting at all hours!

Nc135 · 20/12/2020 14:50

@Stircrazyschoolmum that did pass through my head too. Issue is there still will be people who get very ill with this strain too. Even if milder.

I am a bit though at how fast the EU is shutting flights down. This virus strain has been around since September and has already been detected in at least the Netherlands. And why on earth did we not do this back in Feb when it was rife in Italy.

BlueBlancmange · 20/12/2020 15:20

[quote userxx]@Nellodee From what someone told me working at a hospital in the north of England, it's a lot more contagious but seems weaker in terms of making people ill. [/quote]
Let's hope that turns out to be the case.

Orangeblossom77777 · 20/12/2020 15:25

Can anyone help me understand the spread of this please?

Apparently it is 'seeded throughout Wales' but mainly in SE England, I'm a bit confused about therefore why it seems not to be in other areas such as the SW, which have just been changed from level 3 to 2 such as Bristol.

DecemberDiana · 20/12/2020 15:27

It will probably be everywhere to some degree. They have detected it in Glasgow. It's dominating in those areas of England put into level 4.

Nellodee · 20/12/2020 15:39

EverythingTheLightTouches - The report you linked stated that "N501Y has been associated with increased infectivity and virulence in a mouse model". Reports from South Africa say that a possibly unrelated strain there has the same N501Y mutation and this is causing more severe cases in teenagers and young adults.

You say that it would be unlikely to have become more dangerous given what we already know - can you clarify on this, please? I'd love some reassurance. So long as I know children are still relatively safe, I won't be too worried.

tobee · 20/12/2020 16:08

[quote Nc135]@Stircrazyschoolmum that did pass through my head too. Issue is there still will be people who get very ill with this strain too. Even if milder.

I am a bit though at how fast the EU is shutting flights down. This virus strain has been around since September and has already been detected in at least the Netherlands. And why on earth did we not do this back in Feb when it was rife in Italy.[/quote]

Didn't we do the same with Denmark with the mink concern?

tobee · 20/12/2020 16:11

It's so hard to try and be patient, isn't it, when we're all so desperate for news? Looking for the possibility of silver linings. 😑 Been doing it for so long now.

userxx · 20/12/2020 16:41

@BlueBlancmange I doubt it, the hospital was overrun with people testing positive, nearly all of them symptom free. It will be everywhere.