New strain stuff.....

[MistressoftheDarkSide]

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/boris-johnson-calls-crisis-meeting-to-discuss-response-to-new-covid-strain

So,it's just a variant, nothing to see here, blah blah blah..... I'm pretty sanguine about this stuff but dropping this late at night as a headline right now..... I'm getting mightily pissed off with the uncertainty and the subtle fear mongering......

Any thoughts?

If a virus happens to mutate to become milder, this will generally give it an advantage because its hosts will alter their behaviour and spread it more (they'll say "I've just got a mild cold" and go to work, or not even notice they have it) which can, in turn, make it more transmissible. But I don't think that's what's happened here - scientists seem to have identified changes in the shape of the virus which make it better at getting a hold on our bodies when it gets in. That change doesn't make it likely to be any more or less serious a disease if you catch it. Ie getting milder means more transmissable (due to the way we respond) But more transmissible doesn't mean milder.

If it turns out that this does affect the vaccines' effectiveness, I wonder how easy it will be to adapt the vaccines. Flu vaccines get adapted each year to new strains, without large-scale trials, so I hope they will be able to do the same with these vaccines if needed...

Worrying in case it means the vaccine is not going to be effective against this new strain

@Thimbleberries

If it turns out that this does affect the vaccines' effectiveness, I wonder how easy it will be to adapt the vaccines. Flu vaccines get adapted each year to new strains, without large-scale trials, so I hope they will be able to do the same with these vaccines if needed...

A former medical officer (Sir something or other) was interviewed on the BBC at 9, and he said they are '99% sure' the vaccines will still be effective. He also said that if adjustments need to be made, that would be a relatively straightforward job as the real hard work of creating the vaccines has already been done.

I've been following this thread but not posted before. I just wanted to say it's been a refreshing and a measured thread compared to the mass hysteria on other CV-19 threads.

If vaccine roll out included staff in educational settings, wouldn't that curb the virus spread in the wider community a lot more quickly? I understand the need to protect front line staff & the clinically vulnerable. However, the clinically vulnerable aren't as active in the community & are less likely to spread it to others. If a two pronged approach was adopted for the vaccine rollout, we might be more successful in curbing the spread. I'm not a scientist though, these are just my own observations.

All organisms acquire mutations in their genetic code. This can mean you develop a selective advantage over others in your species - take melanin for example. You can read about how skin colour changed to be a selective advantage depending on how much uv light is in your day here: evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/news/140305_skincolor

These evolutions in humans take a long time as our life cycle is so long. The life cycle of virus' and bacteria are so short that this evolution happens rapidly and new strains pop up all the time and they thrive if these conditions are right and they have a better advantage over their peers.

When the amino acid block changes you can get different properties of the protein - a bit like a game of Tetris where you bang on a different shaped block. If this shape is in the area of the virus that acts as the key to unlock the door of the human cell membrane, and the key now fits the lock better than before which is a rusty old lock that doesn't work very well, it will open the door more often and let more virus in.

The amazing thing about sequencing dna is you can see where the mutations are exactly and relate this to the amino acid chain, and map this onto the atomic resolution models of the 3D protein shape, and hypothesise what impact it has.

@TheRubyRedshoes

Does anyone know if I and right in saying that this is almost a good sign, I am sure I read that virus's don't like to kill people, so they often become more infectious, but less deadly.

A virus's aim is not to kill. They just aim to exist and multiply.

This is just anecdotal but in the last couple of weeks, 5 of my team of therapists have tested positive for Covid. Main symptoms seemed to be fatigue and nausea but not too unwell and all due back this week. We are South East but still tier 2. The other strange thing is that in our hospital, many patients are being admitted Covid free but testing positive later, some may have been incubating but I suspect many have caught it in hospital, however....a large proportion are remaining asymptomatic or very mild symptoms. Even those very frail with multiple underlying conditions. They are all astonished to be told they have Covid and so many I saw last week were rejoicing to have survived it as were so convinced they would die if they got it. The problem for the hospital's now are that anyone who has tested positive, even after their 10 days in isolation, often cannot be discharged because care agencies and care homes will not have people back until they test negative which for some can be over 3 months later. Our hospital declared a critical incident last week, not due to number of admissions but just lack of beds as we cannot move people out.

I should add that when I say 5, that is a third of our team and all but 4 of the rest of us have already had Covid. It does seem to be spreading much more easily even with all the PPE and cleaning we do

Has anyone got a link to Prof Ravi Gupta talking about this? Or anyone currently involved in researching the new mutation discussing it?

@vdbfamily my DH has Covid atm. He's isolating in the spare room. He was one of 18 of his colleagues who tested positive this week out of a total of 20, so a huge proportion of them. At work they were social distancing, using PPE and had lots of measures in place. Natural ventilation was lacking and is perhaps the issue.

He is isolating in the bedroom but DC and I have not caught it so far (we've been tested) so I'm really torn as to whether I feel it's the new strain.

His ten day isolation ends at midnight on Christmas Day, but I'm sorely tempted to have him downstairs for Christmas Day- I can't help thinking that not long ago his isolation would have been just 7 days.

He absolutely won't leave the house though and neither will the rest of us.

BUT reading your post has made me think, especially where you say your patients are testing positive weeks later. Could DH then be infectious for much longer than his 7/10 days?

We have some lateral flow tests at home but maybe he will test positive for months? Will that ten mean he is technically still infectious?

I have tried to find out more about this but without any luck.

@everythingthelighttouches

Sorry, that should have said and about 10 are in the spike protein.

Please can you post more about what you know .

. If a two pronged approach was adopted for the vaccine rollout, we might be more successful in curbing the spread.

I have wondered that but I think it's more about an emergency situation, making sure those who are most vulnerable don't fill up the hospitals which impacts other treatments.

We don't yet have enough vaccines to do that.

Ultimately surely the aim of any virus is to live in harmony with its host.... let's hope covid is on a journey to symbiosis😶

Viruses don't have conscious thought. They're not like bacteria and fungi (who don't have conscious thought but can evolve into symbiotic relationships.)

They're not exactly alive nor dead either.

Sorry, it's not as clear cut as that.

Viruses don't have conscious thought
Obviously!
When we say the virus 'wants' to do this or that we are speaking metaphorically

Ok google says, in very complex papers, they can, but it's not v common and would take thousands of years in humans.

Parasitic wasps are a good example.

I think my A level biology may have been still operating under the mutualism theory for symbiosis.

Unfortunately they're more likely in humans to cause lasting damage eg cancers and immune issues.

Another anecdotal one. I have known lots of people who have had Covid and at the beginning they were definitely more poorly than the people I know getting it now. I am really hoping this strain is less virulent. It’s too early to say right?

hugocat

“Please can you post more about what you know”

I’ve posted a lot on this thread, that should keep you going for a while! Take a look at the report I linked to early this morning. It explains all the mutations in detail.

@vdbfamily

This is just anecdotal but in the last couple of weeks, 5 of my team of therapists have tested positive for Covid. Main symptoms seemed to be fatigue and nausea but not too unwell and all due back this week. We are South East but still tier 2. The other strange thing is that in our hospital, many patients are being admitted Covid free but testing positive later, some may have been incubating but I suspect many have caught it in hospital, however....a large proportion are remaining asymptomatic or very mild symptoms. Even those very frail with multiple underlying conditions. They are all astonished to be told they have Covid and so many I saw last week were rejoicing to have survived it as were so convinced they would die if they got it. The problem for the hospital's now are that anyone who has tested positive, even after their 10 days in isolation, often cannot be discharged because care agencies and care homes will not have people back until they test negative which for some can be over 3 months later. Our hospital declared a critical incident last week, not due to number of admissions but just lack of beds as we cannot move people out.

That's a really interesting insight, and one that surprisingly hasn't been picked up much by the media. I wonder if the nightingales could be turned into sort of giant care homes to put these people in while they wait in limbo for their negative result? Wouldn't require nursing staff, just care agency workers presumably. Could be a way to free up beds if these people are otherwise well enough to be discharged?

A relative is getting more convinced they had covid in January. Very ill with lingering cough and weakness.

They tested positive recently despite very slight symptoms , only tested in fact because it was offered widely in their area. They had not even had an heightened temperature, (they have been monitoring twice daily! )

We may well be getting to the stage of people having been exposed and infected twice. With the confirmation it was in Europe far earlier than first thought.

@Nc135

What a great thread. Finally some real science on here. Super interesting read. Thanks.

I agree. Please keep posting all you people with knowledge who can explain it in layman terms.

@Yohoheaveho

Viruses don't have conscious thought Obviously! When we say the virus 'wants' to do this or that we are speaking metaphorically

Can you explain more what you mean?

They exist as micro parasite in us currently, which is a type of symbiosis.

For it to be a symbiotic relationship there needs to be a benefit to both organisms - having covid doesn't seem to confer any advantage as far as we know, I believe, so it's not symbiotic.