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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

999 replies

NoGoodPunsLeft · 17/12/2020 20:09

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
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22
littleowl1 · 20/12/2020 11:47

Folks - I have added a sortable county column to the council table on www.covidmessenger.com

Numerous ppl I have been speaking to are eager to monitor tier 3 and tier 2 counties. Which I appreciate was hard without the county column as one isn't always familiar with the names of the councils in various counties.

The thinking is that if this strain transmits far more readily that we may see some tier 2's and 3's changing quickly - as we saw in counties in tier 4 in the last week.

If you do take a look at the table could I ask a HUGE favour.

Geography has never been my strongest point, and I know there are numerous councils that straddle two counties. So in some cases I have had to make a best guess at which is the "most correct" county. So I may have got a couple "misclassified".

If you spot one, please can you let me know with @littleowl1 in the post so I don't miss it. Thank you so much!

Hmmph · 20/12/2020 11:57

Thank you! I will check my local places.

If the pandemic has been good for anything, it’s learning Geography. I hadn’t even heard of places like Swale before, now I can find them on a map!

Witchend · 20/12/2020 12:02

Going back to the Zoe app. I use it for me, but I don't report my children, because they would be useless at reporting. This would be every day in my house:
DD1: I'm fine don't fuss
DD2: Yes! I have everything. Tick every box for me... I feel terrible!
Ds: I'm fine.

So I don't think they'd be much help!
But also I think at one point it said cases "between 16 and 65" so would they count them?

The thing about teenagers being hospitalised may just be an effect of so many having Covid. If 0.1% need hospitalisation, then if 1000 teenagers are ill, then 1 is in hospital. If 50 000 teenagers are ill then there's 50, which stops looking quite so "no worries". Add to that the number of teenagers with health concerns: Remember that health concerns include diabetes, asthma, obesity and other conditions that many teens have. And the fact that children who should be shielding were told to go back to school. Angry

My ds had his appendix out in June. I'm told by the consultant he is at risk still if he gets it. Not a major risk, but it was enough to give him the flu jab and I've been told if he gets it, first sign of breathing issues to get him to A&E.

What proportion of teens have underlying health conditions? I don't know, but isn't diabetes and asthma both less than 1 in 10 children? Say that's 3 in 20 have one or both... out of 50k, that's 7500 children. Children's departments often aren't very big, and with covid the capacity has been brought down at our local one at least, because they're only using every other bed, it's basically halved.
I'm also not sure how they would, barring using the 6 private rooms, be able to separate the covid patients from the others in the children's department, as the wards are very open, and you walk past them to get anywhere. It may be they've taken a separate ward from elsewhere in the hospital where they can be segregated more easily. But that may also reduce capacity simply on trained paediatric staff who can't be in two places at once.

I think this new strain has really caught them on the hop. There was clearly something up by Friday's figures. I was hoping we were on the way out a week ago. A lot of change in a week.

But I'm really looking forward to pointing out to the rest of my family that they go into tier 3 and stick. We go in, and come out again within a few days. They even create a new tier for us. We are truly privileged Grin

Witchend · 20/12/2020 12:06

@littleowl1
Brilliant. Thank you for that; it will be really helpful.

I doubt I will be able to help with geography though. I always confuse Manchester and Birmingham. I've managed 20 miles in the wrong direction on the M4...

MRex · 20/12/2020 13:27

I didn't think there was ever overlap; district findings would be a subset of one county. The issue is people not knowing or not agreeing with changes of local authority (Somerset/Avon for example). Details are here, so you can check them:
www.gov.uk/guidance/local-government-structure-and-elections

MRex · 20/12/2020 13:28

*district councils, that should say.

MRex · 20/12/2020 13:34

Sorry @littleowl1, you're right there is one council that splits (always one, right?!): "Each district is contained within one ceremonial county, except Stockton-on-Tees, which is split for this purpose."
Wikipedia's list includes all types, so may be easier to copy for you: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_districts

cathyandclare · 20/12/2020 13:43

Love the sort function @LittleOwl, all correct for Yorkshire as far as I can see. The change over the past month or so is stark. The northern Tier 3 areas that were at the top for so long have dropped right down. The levels are fairly steady at the moment but we can see looking at Kent how quickly things can turn around.

Chaotic45 · 20/12/2020 13:43

@littleowl1 I just wanted to say a very big thank you for everything that you are doing.

I've no idea what you look like, or what you do for a living but I have an image of a tiny, dainty bespectacled owl sitting in-front of several computer monitors pulling lots of data together.

Thanks
lonelyplanet · 20/12/2020 13:46

@littleowl1

Folks - I have added a sortable county column to the council table on www.covidmessenger.com

Numerous ppl I have been speaking to are eager to monitor tier 3 and tier 2 counties. Which I appreciate was hard without the county column as one isn't always familiar with the names of the councils in various counties.

The thinking is that if this strain transmits far more readily that we may see some tier 2's and 3's changing quickly - as we saw in counties in tier 4 in the last week.

If you do take a look at the table could I ask a HUGE favour.

Geography has never been my strongest point, and I know there are numerous councils that straddle two counties. So in some cases I have had to make a best guess at which is the "most correct" county. So I may have got a couple "misclassified".

If you spot one, please can you let me know with @littleowl1 in the post so I don't miss it. Thank you so much!

Very helpful feature, thank you. My county is correct.
littleowl1 · 20/12/2020 14:40

In case my message was a bit ambiguous, there is no overlap/duplication in data/figures. Just to be clear on that.

I think some of the issue is that there are different types of counties - not only ceremonial so it all gets a bit confusing.

I learnt this the hard way(!) - the first iteration of Covid Messenger caused some fierce debate amongst some users up in arms they couldn't find their council in the right county.

Bromley - is it Greater London or is it Kent? You could argue either. Or both. What about councils in Middlesex - most would also be considered Greater London. It's a bit of a pickle really as neither answer is wrong and sometimes people have differing and strong views on which it should be. Bristol caused a spin too.

@Witchend love that image. Made me giggle!!!

And everyone is very welcome. I hope it is useful to everyone. The best thanks is jsut to share it and tell people about it. It's a shame to have the resource there but not used to the extent it could be. So feel free to share, share, share!

MRex · 20/12/2020 15:15

@littleowl1 "Bromley - is it Greater London or is it Kent? You could argue either. Or both. What about councils in Middlesex - most would also be considered Greater London."
Those are just two more examples of people not agreeing with county changes. Bromley, Brent, Teddington etc are all Greater London.
Middlesex hasn't existed for many decades; it's nice to recall it for historical purposes, as much as it's nice to know Bromley is Kentish - but everyone living in the area knows very well that those places are Greater London, they simply don't like it. Just ignore them if they're being dicks about it.

oneglassandpuzzled · 20/12/2020 15:25

[quote Witchend]@littleowl1
Brilliant. Thank you for that; it will be really helpful.

I doubt I will be able to help with geography though. I always confuse Manchester and Birmingham. I've managed 20 miles in the wrong direction on the M4...[/quote]
If you were trying to get to either Manchester or Birmingham on the M4 you were in even more trouble than you knew.😉

cathyandclare · 20/12/2020 15:49

I thought this projection was interesting from @RP131:

I don't really understand this change in xmas rules outside of this new tier 4 area. My initial reaction is we'll likely have more people together in our house on a single day now. Our previous plans would have spread out the interactions.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread
MarshaBradyo · 20/12/2020 15:50

@cathyandclare

I thought this projection was interesting from *@RP131*:

I don't really understand this change in xmas rules outside of this new tier 4 area. My initial reaction is we'll likely have more people together in our house on a single day now. Our previous plans would have spread out the interactions.

Is that the norm? Usually people come together all at once
MarshaBradyo · 20/12/2020 15:51

Ie travel to the house and stay for the few days stay all together centred around Christmas Day.

MarshaBradyo · 20/12/2020 15:52

And if they can’t make it anymore as too far that markedly cuts down interaction.

cathyandclare · 20/12/2020 16:18

I'd guess he's talking about areas where families live nearby, so one family on Xmas day and another on Boxing Day.

I think he's based in Yorkshire.

MarshaBradyo · 20/12/2020 16:19

Do people do that generally?

I always thought the point was to celebrate Christmas Day together!

Stilltalkstotrees · 20/12/2020 16:20

36k 😳

Em777 · 20/12/2020 16:23

Jesus, that’s a big jump. And over 200 for the day in my town. :(

Phyzzy · 20/12/2020 16:28

@MarshaBradyo

Do people do that generally?

I always thought the point was to celebrate Christmas Day together!

Most people I know keep families separate. So my family Christmas day and DH's family Boxing day. Or vice versa
Piggyinblankets · 20/12/2020 16:30

Lots of people have very fragmented families marsha (especially more socially mobile people) and/or wouldn't necessarily have ILs and parents on same day : small houses, people who are divorced, people who don't get on, different family branches etc etc.

I am more surprised always by this Christmas vision that is created of about 20 people round one table! Only my aunt in America does that.

MarshaBradyo · 20/12/2020 16:30

Oh yes each side sure.

I have a big family it would exceed the minimum even before you added another side.

I suppose if you are only seeing one other household from each side you could split it.

wintertravel1980 · 20/12/2020 16:31

From the twitter of Francois Balloux:

NERVTAG meeting report on the new UK #SARSCoV2 variant released

Available data points to:

- Increased growth rate 71% (67%-75%) relative to other lineages in circulation

- Increased viral load (~4x based on RT-PCR; ~5x based on genome reads)

1/
khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608470511452

- No evidence for increased disease severity (4 deaths reported for ~1000 cases)

- 4 probable reinfections / ~915 infections. This feels quite high but would need to be compared to reinfection rates for other lineages.

2/

In summary, the new strain indeed appears to transmit more easily and potentially leads to a higher number of reinfections in comparison to other lineages.