Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

We are very much a big style get together. Sadly I have none of it anyway as they are all o/s

But yes I can see it might be different, hadn’t thought of it.

we usuallywould have ond day at my parent's, one at the inlaws and one travelling round to various family and friends for a cuppa and presents.

I don't think that's very unusual.

Don’t siblings get together? Ie grown up ones

35K cases for a Sunday, thats worrying

Thanks for that link @winter. 4 deaths in 1,000 cases detected via tests feels quite low - aren't we currently running with deaths are around 1-2% of detected cases. Or is that 1000 cases detected via something like the ONS random testing study? Either way it's a low figure so they clearly need more data

@oneglassandpuzzled

I wasn't going to either Manchester or Birmingham. I was trying to get home, late one Sunday night in the pouring rain, having been up at 4am to get dd to her greenpower racing event.
That's my excuse. Unfortunately for some reason and took the wrong turning on, but then didn't realise my mistake for a long time.

@littleowl1

Folks - I have added a sortable county column to the council table on www.covidmessenger.com

Numerous ppl I have been speaking to are eager to monitor tier 3 and tier 2 counties. Which I appreciate was hard without the county column as one isn't always familiar with the names of the councils in various counties.

The thinking is that if this strain transmits far more readily that we may see some tier 2's and 3's changing quickly - as we saw in counties in tier 4 in the last week.

If you do take a look at the table could I ask a HUGE favour.

Geography has never been my strongest point, and I know there are numerous councils that straddle two counties. So in some cases I have had to make a best guess at which is the "most correct" county. So I may have got a couple "misclassified".

If you spot one, please can you let me know with @littleowl1 in the post so I don't miss it. Thank you so much!

Hi Little Owl

You have Bristol in Gloucestershire rather than South Gloucestershire/Avon & Somerset. I don't think Bristol has been counted in Gloucestershire in other county groupings? I could easily be wrong though!

[quote Witchend]@oneglassandpuzzled

I wasn't going to either Manchester or Birmingham. I was trying to get home, late one Sunday night in the pouring rain, having been up at 4am to get dd to her greenpower racing event.
That's my excuse. Unfortunately for some reason and took the wrong turning on, but then didn't realise my mistake for a long time. [/quote]
I have done the same thing on the M4--missed my junction. I've only lived in this part of the world for 25 years.

Interesting statistic: Kent has 51,779 officially recorded cases for the whole pandemic, of which 10,054 have occurred in the past 7 days.

@Jenasaurus

35K cases for a Sunday, thats worrying

This really is the gift that just keeps giving isn’t it?

I was wondering if those 35k cases included the 11k that Wales left off a few days ago. Does anyone know?

@TimeForLunch

I was wondering if those 35k cases included the 11k that Wales left off a few days ago. Does anyone know?

No, they were included a few days back.

They were added a few days ago.

Thanks for clarifying

No, the Wales cases were the ones that made it go over 30k a couple of days ago (Thursday?)

Thanks for the new counties feature @littleowl1, it makes it a lot easier to see geographical patterns now. Now I can see that what I was saying about a Eastbourne and Crawley yesterday (remaining in tier 2 despite cases increasing very rapidly) actually applies to all of East Sussex and half of West Sussex.

@Firefliess

Thanks for that link *@winter*. 4 deaths in 1,000 cases detected via tests feels quite low - aren't we currently running with deaths are around 1-2% of detected cases. Or is that 1000 cases detected via something like the ONS random testing study? Either way it's a low figure so they clearly need more data

That stood out to me too.

72% of the cases added in England today from London, South East and East of England.

If you break down the 7 day case average by Tiers 2, 3 and 4 council areas it gets even more stark.

I'd imagine my graph is similar to that from yesterday's DSt brief, just based on today's numbers. It runs from 1st November. In absolute case number terms, so the picture would be worse again when we consider close to 23m in Tier 3 and about 15m in Tier 4.

The table of councils is now up to date with todays data on www.covidmessenger.com

Regarding the four probable reinfections. I would love to know how they identified them - even if they're just counting a previous positive test as a probable reinfection (rather than having sequence data available as has been the previous scientific standard) then that's still the tip of the iceberg since we didn't test the vast majority of cases in the spring and we're still missing plenty. That's nearly 0.5% of infections and could easily be off by a factor of ten. Even if that's not higher than the reinfection rate for other strains that's very concerning.

And yes MRex, you are right!

@QueenStromba

Thanks for the new counties feature *@littleowl1*, it makes it a lot easier to see geographical patterns now. Now I can see that what I was saying about a Eastbourne and Crawley yesterday (remaining in tier 2 despite cases increasing very rapidly) actually applies to all of East Sussex and half of West Sussex.

Im in Crawley and my sons are both in Redhill, so Tier 2 and Tier 4 who all share the East Surrey Hospital so its confusing why Crawley isnt in Tier 4 as well as if we are out and about risk having to go to hospital and make the situation worse.

I visited Wakehurst place today, wanted to go all year to see the bench I got in memory of my parents, and kept putting it off, had to book tickets and just after the announcement yesterday about the Tier 4 I got a ping on my phone to say we could still go, they were quick of the mark.

That makes even less sense that I thought. Your numbers aren't sky high yet but they're doubling in a week so at the current trajectory you'll be at 400/100,000 in a week. That's enough for tier 4 in my eyes even without being reliant on a tier 4 hospital that's already cancelling operations.
Eastbourne's numbers are now up more than 200% in the last week from 150% yesterday. If they rise another 200% by next week then they'll have about 750/100,000 in a week which is about Barking's current rate - Barking is the 10th worst borough.

@QueenStromba

Regarding the four probable reinfections. I would love to know how they identified them - even if they're just counting a previous positive test as a probable reinfection (rather than having sequence data available as has been the previous scientific standard) then that's still the tip of the iceberg since we didn't test the vast majority of cases in the spring and we're still missing plenty. That's nearly 0.5% of infections and could easily be off by a factor of ten. Even if that's not higher than the reinfection rate for other strains that's very concerning.

I read some where that 10% of positive tests are sequenced. I think that would be a way to identify re-infection with a different strain, if so.

@Queen re the "probable reinfections" - There have been about 2m Covid cases altogether identified by tests (according to government dashboard) - so that's about 3% of the population. If those who'd had it were as likely as everyone else to catch it again, we'd expect at least 3% of new cases to be people who'd had a previous positive test (probably more in practice as those who catch it once are likely to be more at risk though their lifestyle/job of catching it again).

But there's also several million more who believe they had Covid in the spring when they couldn't get tested, though they won't all be correct. So depends what they count as a "probable" reinfection. If it's just the people whose infections have been confirmed by tests, then those figures suggest that previous exposure does make you much less likely to catch the new strain (and be sufficiently ill that you get tested) though not the risk isn't zero