Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Wow @BigWoollyJumpers . Thanks

Explains the Cardiff health board who took to social media last night to appeal for medical students with experience in proning patients to come forward.

@BigWoollyJumpers

Wales Data in:

4,142 new cases of Covid in Wales since Christmas Eve
There have been a further 4,142 cases of coronavirus in Wales, taking the total number of confirmed cases to 139,642.

Public Health Wales reported another 70 deaths, taking the total in Wales since the start of the pandemic to 3,368.

Officials said the data was for a 48-hour period from 9am on Christmas Eve to 9am on Boxing Day.

On the dashboard it gave Wales figures yesterday as 2237, and deaths as 35. Is the 4142/70 on top of that?

The BBC's article on this says that they had warned that no cases would be reported on Christmas Day? I'm now confused.

Looks like the 4k is on top of what has already been announced on boxing day, as the total for Wales on the dashboard is 135 500.

Wales didn't report on Christmas Day. Looking at specimen dates, what it reported on Boxing day was essentially what it would have reported on Christmas Day, had they been at work. Pretty much nothing for the 24th, very low for the 23rd.

So today's reporting covers those cases that were identified as positive from 9am Christmas Eve to 9am Boxing Day - 2 days worth of reporting, and the matching data from England's reporting on Boxing Day and today.

Oxford data for those who have asked for it:

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext#tbl2 The key figures are in table 2.

I share the concerns on messiness of the data, and reduced efficacy compared with the Pfizer. But it is none the less effective enough to make a real difference, and I welcome it's roll-out.

@Motorina

Oxford data for those who have asked for it:

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext#tbl2 The key figures are in table 2.

I share the concerns on messiness of the data, and reduced efficacy compared with the Pfizer. But it is none the less effective enough to make a real difference, and I welcome it's roll-out.

Is that the latest? Ie what the press are talking about now

Published Dec 8

Marsha I don't think any new data has been released.

It was just what the Astra CEO was saying.

The MHRA though will have it though I suspect.

Todays cases are nearly 10k lower than Christmas Eve and deaths are almost half too, could it be the measures are working or is the weekend figure lag?

@Motorina my issues are the fact that I think we all need to look at the detail. Yes it “works” but does it work well enough for the most vulnerable?! Also the CEO comments today with zero data to substantiate are again another example of poor communication. Like anyone I’d welcome a way out of this I just question, quite rightly, if Oxford is it? With the increased transmissibility of the new variant the % required to achieve herd immunity is likely unachievable even with 100% take up. Hopefully the comments today won’t fall flat when the data is actually released.

Maybe a lag or maybe because many schools broke up 2 weeks + ago for Xmas or at least 9 days ago.

@Wakeupin2022

Marsha I don't think any new data has been released.

It was just what the Astra CEO was saying.

The MHRA though will have it though I suspect.

Wake yes I’d thought that too. Hopefully we get official approval / data soon.

@Jenasaurus

Todays cases are nearly 10k lower than Christmas Eve and deaths are almost half too, could it be the measures are working or is the weekend figure lag?

The numbers are going to be all over the place till we get into the start of January aren't they. Some because of lag, some because people's behaviour over testing will be different over Christmas. I don't think Scotland are even reporting deaths till the 28th are they?

7 day average of deaths by actual date of death for the UK have actually just inched to their highest since the end of November. Reported deaths are always lower on a Sunday, due to reporting lag (last Sunday was 326, today 316).

Cases will be artificially low for a few days as we are now getting into cases from specimen days 24/25/26 - when I suspect a lower than normal number of people would go for testing, after a high peak on 22/23.

Cases 30,501, Deaths 316
Low, but I suspect weekend/bank holiday lag.

To see how quickly things have changed, I just looked back to see when the UK hit one million cases. It was 31st October. Two million was hit on 19th December, less than two months.

@Witchend

Cases 30,501, Deaths 316 Low, but I suspect weekend/bank holiday lag.

To see how quickly things have changed, I just looked back to see when the UK hit one million cases. It was 31st October. Two million was hit on 19th December, less than two months.

That really does put things in perspective.

[quote Oaktree55]@Motorina my issues are the fact that I think we all need to look at the detail. Yes it “works” but does it work well enough for the most vulnerable?! Also the CEO comments today with zero data to substantiate are again another example of poor communication. Like anyone I’d welcome a way out of this I just question, quite rightly, if Oxford is it? With the increased transmissibility of the new variant the % required to achieve herd immunity is likely unachievable even with 100% take up. Hopefully the comments today won’t fall flat when the data is actually released.[/quote]
Yes, I agree. Hence me posting a link to the research data which is in the public domain.

@PatriciaHolm

7 day average of deaths by actual date of death for the UK have actually just inched to their highest since the end of November. Reported deaths are always lower on a Sunday, due to reporting lag (last Sunday was 326, today 316).

Cases will be artificially low for a few days as we are now getting into cases from specimen days 24/25/26 - when I suspect a lower than normal number of people would go for testing, after a high peak on 22/23.

Plus there won't be any postal tests with Royal Mail not doing collections.

The Oxford vaccine prevented all severe disease/hospitalisations - I don’t mind getting covid with mild symptoms. Personally I can’t wait to have the Oxford vaccine.

@Crumpetycrump

The Oxford vaccine prevented all severe disease/hospitalisations - I don’t mind getting covid with mild symptoms. Personally I can’t wait to have the Oxford vaccine.

Weren't there no severe cases in the control arm either?

Weekends always seems to be lower, and with Christmas as others have said many people probably wouldn't of got tested.
Our case rate has gone sky high and the highest level of cases was recorded yesterday.
We are in tier 3, surrounded by tier 4 and a lot of tier 4 has been shopping in our outlet.
I wonder if a lot more areas will be put into tier 4 this week?
Also if there will be anymore on schools do you reckon?

We know the published interim. I’m more interested in why the CEO is saying what he is.

People in another thread were saying Amazon collections and deliveries of tests were still happening? Or should that just be deliveries, am not sure how postal test system works?

Surely the biggest cause of lowere figures is lack of reporting by the 3 smaller nations as explained upthread.

I’d put money on the CEO bigging up the potential for different dosing regimes. However this requires a new trial. It’s school boy announcements yet again. Watch the share price that’s very telling. Far more so than Mumsmet comments.

Share price says nothing if it’s built on hot air. It can fall on the other side equally rapidly.

No one knows more on here because they can see a share price rise.