Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Ah I see, you are linking to a couple of people with opinions on twitter, rather than any peer reviewed papers or actual research data.

Yes actually I take a lot of time reading up on expert opinion. Those are two. Read up yourself there’s a lot of concern/frustration over the Oxford data and its efficacy. Read up on the modelling of what a vaccine with

Oak how do you know what the efficacy is now?

Have you read / heard the news this morning?

Oak it may not be perfect and the mishaps have been unfortunate but its what we are most likely going to get.

I know I will go and get the vaccine whenever I am offered it whether it is Pfizer / Oxford or anything else (well might worry about Sputnik).

@MarshaBradyo the mainstream news isn’t very reliable. The data is normally published before it makes the news and I haven’t seen any. As far as I’m aware they need to run another trial re half:full dose and the US data isn’t due for a few weeks. AZ share price is always a good quick check on how good the news is.

What I want to know is why the possible issues of ADE and increased inflammatory response to infection with coronavirus vaccines have been completely memory holed. The trials simply weren't large enough to preclude either of those phenomena as even fairly common effects in vaccinated patients infected with a covid variant highly similar to the vaccine strain let alone a variant different enough that it appears to have different infection dynamics.

@Wakeupin2022 yes I know it’s all we will get but I’m entitled to be disappointed. Have relatives in UAE for example. Brilliant efficient rollout of both Sinopharm and now Pfizer, phone up book an appointment at your convenience (prioritised) but it shows what a mess we’re in. Oxford is showing the lowest efficacy so far, Sinopharm showing 87%. My worry is what happens next, say immunity wanes and we all need a booster next Autumn. It won’t be with Oxford so who’s tested safety of taking day Pfizer a few months after Oxford. These are just questions we all need to think about surely.

@QueenStromba yes that’s something else I’ve been following. From what I’ve read there doesn’t seem to be concern over ADE hopefully.

Oak So will all the immigrant workers get the same priority with UAE nationals?

Yes, it's very interesting how the stories isn't Singapore's triumph over the virus miss out the fact that it's running rife through migrant worker populations.

I think a vaccine is better than no vaccine. I trust the MHRA to decide well. If the Oxford vaccine wears off, then we will get something else instead. Which will have been looked at properly. There is no point coming up with scenarios that we can't judge the likelihood of. I would have any vaccine, I trust the decision on Pfizer as well, but that is brand new as a concept. No point worrying what might happen if you took both, right now. (Although I can only think vaccine 1 might think vaccine 2 was the virus, and fight it, but if you still had immunity why would you take a second vaccine? And if you didn't, are you not starting from scratch again? (Those questions are rhetorical, and the product of a brain with only GCSE science)

@Wakeupin2022 I’d assume so?! It’s for all residents with a visa so I’d assume that includes all workers. I’d imagine February/March time it’ll be available to purchase as they’ll have worked through residents by then.

www.ft.com/content/538db451-b165-4754-be53-da29b268e227

It does sound as is they would get it. Although probably not very feasible for them logistically unless their employers bused them there.

I would be careful quoting the 87% efficacy for the Sinopharm vaccine though as it doesn't seem the data has been released to back this up.

Yes the Brazil data is due early January. The UAE are generally pretty good though and it’s from their trial data I believe. Yes agree though devils in the detail, I can’t point out the inconsistencies with Oxford then claim Sinopharm is great!

The percentages are difficult to compare because of different age groups and different test protocols for asymptomatic cases; MHRA and other regulators will want to compare details based on similar groups; as the full trial data isn't available to the public I don't think the Twitter commentary is knowledgeable. I trust that MHRA will only approve the Oxford vaccine if it's useful. If they don't then that's bad news, but we then need focus on buying more of other vaccines and extra support for Imperial if its trial does well.

As I understand it, the main risk with the Oxford vaccine is actually that a booster may be ineffective. I'm hopeful that the Imperial vaccine will swoop in to save us. This is a nice article on it: www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-imperial-oxford-latest-covid-b1639456.html.

Anyway I’d be interested in debate re Oxford. If I’m understanding correctly the numbers in the trial (even full dose:full dose) over 55 are lower than the Pfizer/Moderna. Also I believe less minorities. If I’m correct and the vaccine is approved at 62% efficacy for (mostly) under 55’s then aren’t we at risk of the elderly/vulnerable not getting enough protection? Before people say I’m negative if I were in charge I’d be ordering more Pfizer/Moderna (as other countries are doing). If the rumour is to be believed after January there’s unlikely to be more Pfizer arriving till March. Will our Government make another catastrophic error by using Oxford in haste in groups that probably might be better off with a different vaccine? None of us know the answer to this until it plays out but it’s a possibility worth considering and the implications are huge.

@MRex I think the Novavax one looks very promising.

Yes, Novovax is very exciting new tech. The antibody treatment is also fascinating and just entering trials. If it weren't for covid we could all really enjoy watching this huge global leap in scientific achievement that's happening before our eyes.

I don't know where the 62% under 55 figure comes from, because that doesn't align with any figures I've seen, please can you post the official scientific source for any figures you have as we like on this thread for everyone to have a look in case something is missed and to verify the credentials of whoever supplies the data. Just to reiterate though that personally I'll happily leave detailed analysis for drugs approval to MHRA; we don't have the data and most of us don't have the skills to analyse and compare vaccines in sufficient depth.

Does anyone have any insight from the last two days of (partial) reporting on coronavirus.data.gov.uk?

I was trying to make sense of it - what has been reported on Cases (Positive tests) on 25th and 26th looks quite flat, but is this only the numbers for England? I think I saw that on one day (23rd or so?) in the graph by test date for just England there were 40k new cases? But I wasn't sure if I was reading it right.

@anappleadaykeeps

Does anyone have any insight from the last two days of (partial) reporting on coronavirus.data.gov.uk?

I was trying to make sense of it - what has been reported on Cases (Positive tests) on 25th and 26th looks quite flat, but is this only the numbers for England? I think I saw that on one day (23rd or so?) in the graph by test date for just England there were 40k new cases? But I wasn't sure if I was reading it right.

From the "about this data"- England's current specimen data for the 21st is 40k, with an additional 4k for the other nations so far.

"UK cases and deaths will be updated every day throughout the holiday period, with the following service changes:

England: data updated daily
Northern Ireland: no data on 24–28 December
Scotland: no deaths data on 25–28 December and 1–4 January
Wales: no data on 25 December and 1 January
UK totals for each day will reflect the sum of the nations which reported data. Cases and deaths that would have been reported during these periods are likely to instead be reported on the following days. As a result, any changes to published data should be interpreted with caution during this period, as they may be a result of changes to reporting schedules.

Testing and capacity metrics will be updated on working days. This means they will not be updated 25–28 December 2020, and data for this period will instead be updated on 29 December 2020."

So to be clearer, sorry - cases reported on 25th excluded Wales and N Ireland, and on 26th N Ireland.

Also, I think testing will be down over the past few days as people delay testing over holidays (always lower numbers over weekends and bank hols) and there may be some confusion as to when test centres are open.

So the numbers this week are likely to be a bit off, with a backlog incoming at the end of the week, I suspect.

The Oxford/AZ trial has further arms which haven't been reported but may have reached inter or endpoints since their data was frozen in Nov 4th.

The USA and SA arms have very diverse populations ( as does Brazil). The team said that lots more data was given to the MHRA last Monday.

www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-12-17-oxford-vaccine-stimulates-broad-antibody-and-t-cell-functions

This all sounds good? No?

So, in other words, we'll all need a stiff drink ready for 4pm (5pm? 6pm? 8pm??) on the 29th.

Wales Data in:

4,142 new cases of Covid in Wales since Christmas Eve
There have been a further 4,142 cases of coronavirus in Wales, taking the total number of confirmed cases to 139,642.

Public Health Wales reported another 70 deaths, taking the total in Wales since the start of the pandemic to 3,368.

Officials said the data was for a 48-hour period from 9am on Christmas Eve to 9am on Boxing Day.