Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

The point is, that frontline staff are included in the call out when vaccines are left over. If you look at other threads running, there are plenty of occassions when calls have gone out, and MN's on the front line have got vaccinations. Would you rather they went in the bin, or that other NHS staff, involved in running the hospital were off sick. Have a look at "Hospital" on BBC2, and decide whether you think all the staff running these large hospital trusts have no input into the care of patients and staff. Did you look at the bbc link? It was a general shout out in Birmingham, execs and office staff got offered the vaccine before front line staff. Maybe have a look at what actually happened.

That should be it wasn't a general shout out, it was execs and admin first.

@RhubarbFizz Perhaps they need a reserve list so that ECV people, teachers say, can sit in their cars ready for spare vaccine if admin staff and bosses are getting it as not able to give it to the frontline nhs staff? I doubt over 80’s would be happy sitting in their cars but some might. Brilliant idea.

Perhaps they need a reserve list so that ECV people, teachers say, can sit in their cars ready for spare vaccine if admin staff and bosses are getting it as not able to give it to the frontline nhs staff? I doubt over 80’s would be happy sitting in their cars

Are you envisioning that teachers take their class with them while they wait?!

A ‘reserve list’ seems sensible but the teaching population needs a full roll out of their own.

Herefordshire has really shot up.

It was madness! Especially when it borders Monmouthshire which is really high.

They were having a lot of visitors for the pubs I heard, some travelling hours.

BUT I think we have the new strain about. I live in a neighbouring county and it really seems to have increased a lot in the last few days. I know the knew strain has been found locally.

We are still relatively low in the grand scheme of things but the rate of increase is worrying.

Throw in open pubs and its a recipe for disaster.

We'll jusrpt have to agree to disagree on this one ancientgran

Hospitals need admin and support staff and, shock, horror, managers, to keep services running. Just a thought.

I've been keeping an eye on the North Kent areas too @wintertravel - to see what might be in store for the rest of us. Swale was the area that stood out first with inexplicably high cases - we discussed it on this thread with various theories around prison outbreaks, especially contagious Kent schools, or mass non-compliance with distancing rules. We now know that these were the new strain of course. But Swale was definitely the first area to see the rapid rise, followed by Medway. So it's interesting to see today that of all the high rate areas (see the list that rp131 posts on twitter each day) Swale stands out as the one area that is now falling. This can't be to do with schools or tiers (because there's nothing unusual about Swale's schools, and it was one area among many that went of lockdown into tier 3). There seem two possible explanations for this to me. One is an element of herd immunity where the people at most risk of catching it have mostly had it. The other is a change in behaviour because people have become more scared of catching it - as most people will know people who've caught it, and many of them will know someone who's been very ill or died. Either way it does suggest we might see a fall in transmission in a few weeks (even if we don't close schools), though there's a big, bad number of people would need to catch it first.

I'm afraid that what's going to happen is: numbers fall due to xmas (less admin, less testing, less reporting) + ppl don't go out that much. So schools again will be deemed "safe" and open. Then school start will coincide with potential new infections from new year's parties creating a perfect mix to drive numbers up.

CompleteCobblers well vaccines are currently happening now, most schools do not start back TIL Jan 4th, private schools often later, so plenty of time for ECV teachers to sit in their cars waiting. I imagine some teachers may work a 4 day week say and be part time. Same as dentists - or anyone who is face to face but not yet got the vaccine. I only gave teachers as an example due to the problems keeping schools open. My childminder for example works a 4 day week.

A reserve list sounds a good idea - once all admin, exec, hospital staff vaccinated would be awful for it to be wasted . I imagine they have worked out timings so know when the end of a planned vaccination slot is - I doubt they are finishing at 4 pm each day as sounds like a massive task, so many people can go near the end of the predicted vaccination clinic.

As a previous poster said - gym instructors and lifeguards got spare vaccine in one area. Which means they now get the second dose. And with Tier 4, they are unable to work unlike postal delivery people, supermarket staff, teachers, dentists etc etc.

.

@Thesun. I don't think they'll be a big drop off over Christmas - my friend who works in a testing center says he's been really busy today. And in England at least reporting is continuing daily.

@Firefliess
may thy name be Cassandra :) (wrt testing, not numbers!)

When you have your first vaccine you also have to solidly commit to getting your second dose at the right time in a very narrow timeframe, so people with random work patterns or caring responsibilities aren't all necessarily going to be able to commit at extremely short notice.

I think there will be a drop over Christmas with schools closed, plus people not wanting to have to isolate.
At the same time there may be some people who may think that they might as well get a test seeing as they're at home anyway and are surprised to find they're positive.

This might be a good point to see if the new variant does prefer transmission in children, or if it was simply that schools allowed it to spread easily.
If we continue over the holidays seeing the increase in numbers, especially over the primary school ages, then that will be much more certain.
If however it drops it will be highlighting the problem of transmission in schools.

The Liverpool asymptomatic testing sites had their busiest ever day on Christmas Eve, with thousands of people queueing up to use them for hours. Despite public health warning to the contrary people were using them as a “licence to see relatives” on Christmas Day.

@TheSunIsStillShining

I'm afraid that what's going to happen is: numbers fall due to xmas (less admin, less testing, less reporting) + ppl don't go out that much. So schools again will be deemed "safe" and open. Then school start will coincide with potential new infections from new year's parties creating a perfect mix to drive numbers up.

This is my fear too.

I know an nhs exec (lovely guy I may add!) who was volunteering with the vaccine coordination last week.

Wasn't given the vaccine but they joked he might hang around for the extra left over bits (wouldn't be surprised if that happened though.)

I'm seeing another friend who's Gp/ clinical lead today so am going to ask lots of qs.

Specifically this: another hcp friend, front facing, had the vaccine the week before last.

She has since tested asymptomatically positive from a research swab done last week.

Is she immune and caught it? Hence no symptoms? Is she not yet immune and caught it asymptomatically? If she's had the jab is she less likely to pass it on?

TheSun exactly what happened in sept in university areas, eg Newcastle.

@Neuro -the paper in the Pfizer trial showed no protection at all for the first 11-12 days, and after that a sharp drop off in the group who got the vaccine compared to the control group. So depending on the timings it sounds like your friend could have picked it up before she was protected. Especially as with an asymptomatic infection you don't really know how long you've had it at the time you're tested. But I think one of the criticisms of the Pfizer trial is that they only tested people who developed symptoms - which is why they don't know for certain that it stops people catching it asymptomaticly and passing it on.

I read this thread by Christina Pavel, it isn't very cheering but is very clear I thought

mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1342943424585064448

In my area there has been considerable vaccine confusion which isn't reassuring.

Apparently the Oxford Vaccine only shows a 3% drop in asymptomatic transmission. We are in danger of creating a population of vaccinated asymptomatic spreaders if we’re not careful so I hope this is being considered and vaccinated people don’t throw caution to the wind and stop mask wearing etc.

@Oaktree55

Apparently the Oxford Vaccine only shows a 3% drop in asymptomatic transmission. We are in danger of creating a population of vaccinated asymptomatic spreaders if we’re not careful so I hope this is being considered and vaccinated people don’t throw caution to the wind and stop mask wearing etc.

I've not look at the data and i guess for Pfizer they have no clue.

BUT getting the vaccine does not mean you can stop social distancing and following guidelines etc.

It may once enough of the population is vaccinated.

If it stops people getting seriously ill and dying, and health services overwhelmed then surely thats what we are aiming for at the moment?

I would much rather a asymptomatic ECV person than a dying one.

@oaktree. I'm not sure that's right - isn't the problem that they can't measure transmission? Could you link to the source on that though? - I'm interested. And can't understand why they'd be prioritising young fit NHS staff over older people if they weren't at least fairly sure they'd reduce transmission from them - as the risks from an army of vaccinated asymptomatic superspreaders sounds horrendous!