Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@MRex yes we will all get it eventually but I think the Birmingham Trust that offered it to execs and office staff before front line staff are out of order. That has nothing to do with it being difficult. Unions and frontline staff are upset and understandably so, currently absence rates are very high due to illness and self isolation, if we want medical staff on the wards they have to come before admin staff.

@ancientgran - There is no suggestion that it was done due to bribery or malice, so I think it's very unfair to criticise those vaccinating for just trying to ensure there's no wastage. It can't be easy to pull staff off wards who aren't scheduled and effectively rostered time to get the vaccine, there rarely seem to be enough staff as it is with staff off. Hospitals are big places, who would look after the patients for an hour while they go to get vaccinated and go back to the ward? What if the team had wasted day 5 doses instead, surely then they face criticism of why they couldn't just jab any available arm walking past? Can't win.

@PatriciaHolm

Re hospital capacity - the numbers currently in hospital are currently closed to peak in April. But the numbers in ICU are quite a lot lower

I think there are a few things going on there - firstly as you say we have been admitting people who are less sick that those admitted in the first wave, earlier in their illness, and we have a better idea of how to treat.

Also there is a significant amount unfortunately of "hospital acquired" infections; looking at the data it's around 20%. It may be that many of these cases are mild, and are only being picked up because of the now widespread testing in hospital (so the numbers in April/May are likely to have been higher in terms of "those in hospital with covid" as we weren't testing in such a widespread, cautionary manner so didn't pick them up).

We were testing patients routinely in hospital in April,at least where I was working. Every admission.

If there is a new variant,70% more effective, it will be even harder to prevent spread in hospital, sadly.

[quote MRex]@ancientgran - There is no suggestion that it was done due to bribery or malice, so I think it's very unfair to criticise those vaccinating for just trying to ensure there's no wastage. It can't be easy to pull staff off wards who aren't scheduled and effectively rostered time to get the vaccine, there rarely seem to be enough staff as it is with staff off. Hospitals are big places, who would look after the patients for an hour while they go to get vaccinated and go back to the ward? What if the team had wasted day 5 doses instead, surely then they face criticism of why they couldn't just jab any available arm walking past? Can't win.[/quote]
As someone who has worked in hospitals, I think it would be relatively straightforward to page frontline staff off wards in order of clinical vulnerability, There will be even fewer staff on busy wards if these workers get ill and they are high risk in terms of exposure, unlike managers.

I would be inclined to listen to what the unions are saying on this.

@ancientgran

There is absolutely nothing wrong with this. This is going on in every hospital and centre in the UK. People don't turn up, or change their mind, and there are always excess vaccines which need to used up, otherwise they get binned. Not corruption or underhand in any way whatsoever. It is making 100% use of a precious resource.

So you think the office staff and execs should get it while staff in the frontline are left out? I don't know other hospitals involved but I do know the Birmingham hospitals they are talking about, there would be no issue finding 300 staff on the front line to get it.

The point is, that frontline staff are included in the call out when vaccines are left over. If you look at other threads running, there are plenty of occassions when calls have gone out, and MN's on the front line have got vaccinations. Would you rather they went in the bin, or that other NHS staff, involved in running the hospital were off sick. Have a look at "Hospital" on BBC2, and decide whether you think all the staff running these large hospital trusts have no input into the care of patients and staff.

We were testing patients routinely in hospital in April,at least where I was working. Every admission.

Good to hear that - though what I was really referring to was the number of people who are being diagnosed 7 days or more into their stay (so clearly were admitted for something else and caught covid whilst in hospital). And yes I agree, a more transmissable virus is going to be more likely to run around environments like hospitals (and care home), even with strong mitigation.

Based on cases reported today, it looks like the numbers in previous hot spots (e.g. Swale, Thanet in Kent, Havering, Redbridge, Barking and Dagenham in London) are now going down.

The numbers in adjacent areas may still be on the rise. Looks like the lockdown/Tier 4 restrictions do not impact all areas equally and boroughs that were effected earlier are now more likely to see drops in cases.

Perhaps they need a reserve list so that ECV people, teachers say, can sit in their cars ready for spare vaccine if admin staff and bosses are getting it as not able to give it to the frontline nhs staff? I doubt over 80’s would be happy sitting in their cars but some might.

@wintertravel1980

Based on cases reported today, it looks like the numbers in previous hot spots (e.g. Swale, Thanet in Kent, Havering, Redbridge, Barking and Dagenham in London) are now going down.

The numbers in adjacent areas may still be on the rise. Looks like the lockdown/Tier 4 restrictions do not impact all areas equally and boroughs that were effected earlier are now more likely to see drops in cases.

I'm reserving judgement over the next few days tbh - I suspect there are a fair number of people who haven't gone to get tested over the last couple of days who should have, either because they didn't want to "spoil christmas" or (more charitably.....) didn't think the testing centres would be working over Christmas Eve/Day/Boxing day.

I think the numbers for the next week or so will be a bit unreliable and skewed towards the back of the week....and that's even before you allow for the other nations other than England not reporting every day over this period.

@RhubarbFizz

Perhaps they need a reserve list so that ECV people, teachers say, can sit in their cars ready for spare vaccine if admin staff and bosses are getting it as not able to give it to the frontline nhs staff? I doubt over 80’s would be happy sitting in their cars but some might.

I completely agree with this, loads of my friends leisure centre colleagues were vaccinated last week with surplus vaccines where people didn't turn up.

While it's great that they weren't wasted I don't think a group of lifeguards and gym instructors were very high up the priority list!

Been thinking, with 5 day incubation we won't begin to see effects of yesterday's mixing until after 30th at the earliest. People then have to test and get results. Obviously hospitalisations and sadly, deaths, follow on after.

Don't know if incubation period is thought to be the same with the two new variants?

Yes @PatriciaHolm , today's death figure of 210 tells us how unhelpful the Daily stats are going to be for a week or so. Which we could really do without at this stage.

.

@AnyFucker
I was wondering where you were :)

(Whispers) I saw @AnyFucker write something on another thread!

@wintertravel1980

Based on cases reported today, it looks like the numbers in previous hot spots (e.g. Swale, Thanet in Kent, Havering, Redbridge, Barking and Dagenham in London) are now going down.

The numbers in adjacent areas may still be on the rise. Looks like the lockdown/Tier 4 restrictions do not impact all areas equally and boroughs that were effected earlier are now more likely to see drops in cases.

It's too early to see any effect from tier 4 - it only came into effect on the 20th and we've only reliable data til the 21st.

It's too early to see any effect from tier 4 - it only came into effect on the 20th and we've only reliable data til the 21st.

Yes, it is fair and it was sort of my point regarding cases in East London. Numbers in areas like Barking and Dagenham or Havering had started going up fast before the lockdown 2.0 ended and they seem to be plateauing / going down before we see any impact of Tier 4.

Places with lower cases (e.g. Richmond in London or Tunbridge Wells in SE), on the other hand, seem to be going through the same period of rapid growth that occurred in East London a week ago. In other words, the trends are not entirely driven by COVID restrictions and there may be other factors at play (e.g. the new strain may hit susceptible population very hard and fast but its transmission rate may be "normalising" as the time passes).

I agree it is too early to draw firm conclusions but differences in trends across "old" hot spots and areas that have so far been spared from the new strain are quite interesting.

Plateauing could be due to people hunkering down when they start hearing about loads of friends that have it or people they know in hospital. There's also nothing like the local hospital cancelling everything to focus the mind.

It's too early to see any effect from tier 4 - it only came into effect on the 20th and we've only reliable data til the 21st.

Whilst that's true, the rise does seem to be flattening a bit in those badly hit East London Boroughs - and that's data from before the effect from tier 4.

Need for caution but i'll take a slow down of an increase and keep everything crossed its the start of an improvement.

Plus schools closing for holidays?

Hope everyone has had a peaceful and healthy Christmas.

After 2 days off (Christmas eve and Christmas Day), I am now back on duty!!! I have update the table of cases in councils in England on www.covidmessenger.com

After a 2 day break total break from news and data, I wasn't quite expecting the incredible change in cases across the worst hit counties.

Cripes.

Kent has been almost entirely overtaken in recent days (which is hard to get ones head around especially given it still has astonishingly high cases AND schools have been out).

I don't even want to think what things will look like third week of Jan, a fortnight after schools are back.

Plateauing could also be because under current rules, cases in a school class or bubble closes the whole bubble for 2 week (then became 10 days very recently.)

If a large number of cases were in school children, large groups of kids would have been self isolating cutting down a fair chunk of the transmission.

I expect some also panicked; roughly 20% of our pupils took the last week or some of the last week off to SI in order to see Granny. And our cases had gone right down.

which is hard to get ones head around especially given it still has astonishingly high cases AND schools have been out

Hi little!

One child can transmit to a fair number of family v easily. Neighbour's grandson in y6 caught it at school in early December and gave it to 6 out of the 10 of the family bubble. Mainly I think as the grandparents are relatively young and drive all the kids around a lot, have them for tea etc as all their children and partners work. So any child who caught it mid December may have passed it on to a fair few by now.

@littleowl1 just another thanks for your site, I missed the updates when you had a couple of days off (although glad you got some time off!), have been very grateful for keeping informed on cases in different areas.

Cornwall and even more so Herefordshire shows that tier 1 isn't enough. Herefordshire has really shot up.