Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

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UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Looking at hospital admissions at the peak we look in a similar situation now. Good we have treatments now. So hopefully the death will not follow.

I know it depends on location but at what point would the hospital capacity be deemed overwhelmed?

Is there a number? Does it depend more on location?

At what point is it a major concern?

In the paper today that only 7 care homes have had vaccines. Hancock's trumpeting of Chelsea Pensioners, it seems , was an attempt to deflect attention.

Piggy how dreadful ! Which county are you in ? ( dont say if you dont want to ! )

I keep thinking about the theory that the recent mutations arose in immunosupressed patients who had the virus for months .I read that they were often treated with plasma from recovered patients to help fight the infection .So presumably in hospital .

And I wonder how the new mutated strain infected others ,how it escaped the PPE and other precautions used in the hospital .And what changes need to be made .And if they are practical .

Anyone any thoughts ?

coffeeandtea - I wonder if the Nightingale hospitals need to be opened to take patients on the mend but not requiring full hospital support ?

Though I guess that wouldn't allow for sudden changes in status . And where would staff come from ??

oh dear

I am in Beds perdito. Flood waters on the rise. Hopefully hospital will be OK but long time since floods have been this bad (1994 iirc was last big flood)

@peridito

Piggy how dreadful ! Which county are you in ? ( dont say if you dont want to ! )

I keep thinking about the theory that the recent mutations arose in immunosupressed patients who had the virus for months .I read that they were often treated with plasma from recovered patients to help fight the infection .So presumably in hospital .

And I wonder how the new mutated strain infected others ,how it escaped the PPE and other precautions used in the hospital .And what changes need to be made .And if they are practical .

Anyone any thoughts ?

They only get a good level of PPE in the ICU or for aerosol generating procedures - anyone on a normal covid ward just has normal surgical masks.

Wasn't there talk of football stadia being used as vaccine hubs should the Oxford vaccine get the green light?

Yes, I think so. Interestingly they're using the cinema in Eastbourne for Pfizer because they can use its modern aircon for cooling somehow.

I wonder if the Nightingale hospitals need to be opened to take patients on the mend but not requiring full hospital support

Exeter Nightingale Hospital is open with covid patients, prior to that it was being used for other things, scans and vaccine testing.

In the paper today that only 7 care homes have had vaccines. Hancock's trumpeting of Chelsea Pensioners, it seems , was an attempt to deflect attention I keep reading about the logistical challenge but either they can do it or they can't and clearly they can if they want to. I heard the roll out had started in Scotland and Wales, does anyone know if they are doing better than England?

Did you read about the NHS executives who got the vaccine before front line staff in Birmingham. www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-55403235#:~:text=Covid%3A%20Union%20anger%20as%20Birmingham%20hospital%20bosses%20offered%20jab,-By%20Michele%20Paduano&text=People%20aged%20over%2080%20in,which%20started%20earlier%20this%20month.

Sorry if the link doesn't work but it is on the BBC site. Can't understand why NHS frontline workers aren't getting it if it is available. One of my children is a nurse, nursing covid patients and no idea when they will get it but execs sitting in their offices can have it.

. I heard the roll out had started in Scotland and Wales, does anyone know if they are doing better than England?

When I looked at the numbers vaccinated , probably a week ago, Scotland had a higher % vaccinated per population than England. Don't know if its still the case.

Not that is is without issue up there though. I read of hospital in my home town vaccinating office staff before frontline workers

@MRex late 70s relatives have been told February, which ties in. My husband is 70s with health problems but we have no idea when he will get it. Obviously less risk as he is at home and not in a care home. I only know one person locally who has had it and she is 80s with cancer. Most of my neighbours are in their 70s and 80s so expect they will all have it soon. Although presumably they aren't worried as they have all broken the rules over Christmas, well except for us and one neighbour. I live in a small cul de sac so we are crowded with all the visitors cars, some have been staying since Monday.

Does seem quite funny as when we moved here one neighbour reported us to the council for having a shed and a sky dish, we didn't realise we needed planning permission as never lived anywhere that you would need it for a shed. Planning committee came round and laughed when they realised the neighbour also had a shed and a sky dish without planning permission. I'm sure if we were breaking the rules he would report us, retired police officer who still wants to police everyone.

Not that is is without issue up there though. I read of hospital in my home town vaccinating office staff before frontline workers Seems common then.

The corruption regarding it isnt surprising.
But if oxford is close then would be silly to do a logistical nightmare. Sensible to vaccinate the staff. But yes surely covid facing then other frontline.
Thing is almost most important is if any protect you from shedding /spreading covid. As obviously hcp are an important one to get the best non spreading vax.

Makes you wonder how many immunocompromised in uk are continuing to shed virus.

Staff vaccination has started at the hospital but the trust said with a shortfall of about 300 bookings and a number of patients not attending during the first five days of rolling it out, the vaccine was offered to more high-risk staff on shift and others not necessarily high risk, which included some of the executive team members

There is absolutely nothing wrong with this. This is going on in every hospital and centre in the UK. People don't turn up, or change their mind, and there are always excess vaccines which need to used up, otherwise they get binned. Not corruption or underhand in any way whatsoever. It is making 100% use of a precious resource.

Re hospital capacity - the numbers currently in hospital are currently closed to peak in April. But the numbers in ICU are quite a lot lower - I think that's mainly because many of the patients currently in hospital have been there some time so are in the slow recuperation phase, and possibly because we are admitting less sick patients now as not in quite such a crisis situation as in April. But what that means in terms of capacity is that there is a bit more flex. Ward space can be converted to non ICU Covid patients more easily - though it means delaying non Covid operations, which is what we're seeing happening. My nurse friend tells me that most of the Nightingales are not geared up to anything other than bed-bound Covid patients on oxygen. They don't have the kind of facilities you need for convelecence - ie access to physio, toilets, places to be other than in bed, etc. I wonder why they don't make use of empty hotels for some of the convelecence patients - most have private ensuite rooms, level access via lifts, a phone for room service/medical attention. And other spaces available for catering, physio, etc.

@Piggyinblankets @ancientgran that’s a shame about the care home rollout in England - Northern Ireland has (very) successfully rolled the vaccine out to care homes in my opinion, this article has a good breakdown of staff versus residents vaccinations

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/coronavirus-where-has-vaccine-been-delivered-in-northern-ireland-39897699.html

An interesting article where even the Union Rep could only describe it as a 'handful'.

Obviously if there are jabs going spare in an ideal world they would be going to frontline and most vulnerable staff, but those are the very people who may not be available to drop what they are doing at short notice. You can't just take most HCP away from their jobs for an hour if doing so compromises patient safety.

BTW - regarding the nightingales Barts Trust is advertising vaccinator jobs located at the London Nightingale. Don't know which vaccine it would be for but none of the hospitals in this Trust which serves the hardest hit area of East London are administering the Pfizer vaccine yet.

Front line staff who booked at a Bloomsbury vaccination GP centre were turned away as they were earmarked for staff from a different Trust.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-nhs-doctors-nurses-b1777090.html

There is absolutely nothing wrong with this. This is going on in every hospital and centre in the UK. People don't turn up, or change their mind, and there are always excess vaccines which need to used up, otherwise they get binned. Not corruption or underhand in any way whatsoever. It is making 100% use of a precious resource.

So you think the office staff and execs should get it while staff in the frontline are left out? I don't know other hospitals involved but I do know the Birmingham hospitals they are talking about, there would be no issue finding 300 staff on the front line to get it.

Re hospital capacity - the numbers currently in hospital are currently closed to peak in April. But the numbers in ICU are quite a lot lower

I think there are a few things going on there - firstly as you say we have been admitting people who are less sick that those admitted in the first wave, earlier in their illness, and we have a better idea of how to treat.

Also there is a significant amount unfortunately of "hospital acquired" infections; looking at the data it's around 20%. It may be that many of these cases are mild, and are only being picked up because of the now widespread testing in hospital (so the numbers in April/May are likely to have been higher in terms of "those in hospital with covid" as we weren't testing in such a widespread, cautionary manner so didn't pick them up).

@lurker101 that’s a shame about the care home rollout in England - Northern Ireland has (very) successfully rolled the vaccine out to care homes in my opinion, this article has a good breakdown of staff versus residents vaccinations Sorry I left NI out, I'd heard Wales and Scotland had started but didn't know it was underway in NI. All credit to NI, an example to England.

Obviously if there are jabs going spare in an ideal world they would be going to frontline and most vulnerable staff, but those are the very people who may not be available to drop what they are doing at short notice. You can't just take most HCP away from their jobs for an hour if doing so compromises patient safety As I said one of my kids is a nruse, nursing covid patients. When they were doing flu jabs they went onto wards to make sure all the staff got the flu jab. If the hub is in a hospital that isn't hard to arrange. No idea why a vaccination would take an hour. I accept it is easier to go to an admin floor and do the staff their but laziness isn't a very good excuse.

@lurker101 The stats in your link are impressive.

I think we need to allow the vaccination programme a little time; it will come to everyone but there are known difficulties with distribution of the Pfizer one. If it was months down the line then ok, start worrying why care homes aren't complete, but it's only just got approval and is starting to go out; it should be treated like the good news it is.

This might be helpful in explaining why "excess" or "shots for people who don't turn up" are being used as they are. It's from the US, but the methods of delivery won't be different.

slate.com/technology/2020/12/covid-19-vaccine-nursing-homes-pharmacist.html

Specfically - "You have to let the Pfizer vaccine come to room temperature before you can do the reconstitution process. Once you’ve reconstituted the vaccine in the vial, it’s stable for a little bit of time, but once you draw up the vaccine in the syringes, it has to be given immediately."

and "After administering the vaccine, we observe all patients for 15 minutes to make sure they’re feeling OK. If patients are deemed to be at high risk for a reaction—meaning that they’ve had a previous anaphylactic reaction to a vaccine or other injectable medicine that caused them to seek medical treatment, such as an EpiPen—they are observed for 30 minutes."

If someone doesn't turn up for an appt, it could be that there is very little time to find someone else to take it, someone who could be found very quickly and who could spare up to half an hour or more away from their post. Even the article quoted above only suggests it's a handful of non-front line staff getting the jab.