Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Tier 4 craziness here. 14 cases at DS1's sixth form since Friday. Constant emails...

I know this is the data thread but I'm glad I'm not alone in feeling the sheer anxiety I did back in March. Perhaps it's also the pressure of Christmas etc bearing down on us and we'll feel better in a week or two?

Ha, wakeup, I didn't see your post before I posted! Just going to put my head down as much as I can for now. My next biggest worry is going to be schools starting again.

@littleowl1

Folks - I have added a sortable county column to the council table on www.covidmessenger.com

Numerous ppl I have been speaking to are eager to monitor tier 3 and tier 2 counties. Which I appreciate was hard without the county column as one isn't always familiar with the names of the councils in various counties.

The thinking is that if this strain transmits far more readily that we may see some tier 2's and 3's changing quickly - as we saw in counties in tier 4 in the last week.

If you do take a look at the table could I ask a HUGE favour.

Geography has never been my strongest point, and I know there are numerous councils that straddle two counties. So in some cases I have had to make a best guess at which is the "most correct" county. So I may have got a couple "misclassified".

If you spot one, please can you let me know with @littleowl1 in the post so I don't miss it. Thank you so much!

@littleowl1 thanks again for the dashboard and the changes! I noticed that you had Halton as being part of Cheshire - administratively it’s actually part of “Liverpool city region” (and so will be staying in tier 2)

I’m really scared of the new strains they are finding. I thought hopefully that perhaps it was getting more infectious but less dangerous as it was mutating but that doesn’t seem to be the case as far as I can see.
I’ve got to go to the dentist tomorrow for emergency treatment and I’m dreading it. I’ve already had unplanned trips to the chemist and supermarket and suddenly feel very very exposed. I haven’t felt like this since March.

I know what you mean, Noel. But there are so many threads out there full of misinformation and people just don't listen, even when facts are presented calmly and clearly. It's frustrating and worrying all at the same time :(

I work for an ambulance trust and the community page is really depressing, everyone is struggling to cope with the workload, and a lot are reluctant to volunteer for extra shifts until they have had the vaccine, the good news is that some of the paramedics have already started having the vaccine. They do have PPE which has been fit tested, but some have noticed their glasses steaming up which means the mask needs to be fit tested again (probably to do with losing or gaining weight or perhaps washing the mask) One of the concerns with the hospital capacity being at breaking point, is the waiting time in an ambulance has increased to an average of 90 minutes. So 90 minutes with a COVID positive patient in an enclosed space as there is no room at the inn is a worry.

Thank you at @ceeveebee. I will update the county for Halton. And another kind user highlighted I had Bristol wrong too. So will do that too - prob next week.

I have mixed emotions at the moment on the place we find ourselves. Deep foreboding wrt the new variants. But I am also somewhat relieved that something has occurred to wake up the nation.

Being so close to the data, and seeing the alarming trends through Dec, I felt immense anxiety - an anxiety few others shared. Which is ironic given we went into tier 4 in the first wave.

I am hopeful that the country has had the wake up call we need and that most will now pull together and we will get the next few months behind us and then hopefully the vaccine will be well on its way.

Jan might be brutal - schools may close - but I don’t think it will be for long - just like the situation in Dover - a solution will be found and will be implemented. There will be a bit of upheaval to get there but we will get there.

S African expert (Lasalles?) on R4 tonight saying he's no idea why M Hancock thought the new strain was more infectious, they had no such data. Also that the idea it affects younger people more is not evidence-based so far.

@DecemberStar I heard that. I may be wrong but I thought he said they had clear evidence that it was more infectious than previous strains, but no evidence that it is more infectious than the 'new' strain causing concern in the UK.

I hope that's correct, apologies that it's not very cheerful but I thought it worth repeating what I thought was said.

@littleowl1

Thank you at *@ceeveebee*. I will update the county for Halton. And another kind user highlighted I had Bristol wrong too. So will do that too - prob next week.

I have mixed emotions at the moment on the place we find ourselves. Deep foreboding wrt the new variants. But I am also somewhat relieved that something has occurred to wake up the nation.

Being so close to the data, and seeing the alarming trends through Dec, I felt immense anxiety - an anxiety few others shared. Which is ironic given we went into tier 4 in the first wave.

I am hopeful that the country has had the wake up call we need and that most will now pull together and we will get the next few months behind us and then hopefully the vaccine will be well on its way.

Jan might be brutal - schools may close - but I don’t think it will be for long - just like the situation in Dover - a solution will be found and will be implemented. There will be a bit of upheaval to get there but we will get there.

I think I have some idea how you feel @littleowl1 . I felt something similar this week, and also back in March when we locked down.

Friends and family were really shaken back in March but I felt something more like relief that finally the government were looking the situation 'straight in the eye' and taking action rather than telling us all was ok.....

littleowl1 - Thank you for all the work you have put into the COVID Messenger data, I look at it every day, its so clear and easy to understand, really appreciate it, even if it does scare me at times when the numbers get so high

@Chaotic45 you're probably right, thanks.

The death rate is concerning today; it's the highest it's been in the second wave.
But you wouldn't expect it, because if you take the time lag you expect with deaths, the current explosion of cases shouldn't have had time to effect people. 2-4 weeks ago cases were under half what they are now

Is it not relevant that in the last week, all secondary school pupils and their families have been encouraged to go for tests in some high prevalence areas? That should have contributed to the huge spike but few/none of those positive cases will be seriously ill let alone die of it. So we may not see the deaths spike in the same way that the cases have?

@manicinsomniac good point. I guess that hospitalisations and deaths should roughly follow the infection rate of the older demographics!

Sorry, stray exclamation mark which made my post seem rather callous, it wasn't meant to be there.

Info on the strains:

twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1341793323535757312?s=21

Data coming out from London School of Hygiene:

twitter.com/PeterHorby/status/1341851684713209858

Piggy that says bigger death rates and hospitalizations unless education switched to on line?

Higher than 2021?

Higher than 2020! Sorry.

Not sure if this has been posted, its the latest models from the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and hasn't yet been peer reviewed.

cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html

Heat map for deaths on dashboard now.

[quote Noellodee]Not sure if this has been posted, its the latest models from the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and hasn't yet been peer reviewed.

cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html[/quote]
Yes that was what piggy's post three above was linking to

Yes noelle that's what I just posted

And, yes that is what it says pavlova

Tier 4 dashboard for my borough looks interesting this week. It's been true for some time but it is stunning to see in infographic form how many +ve cases are in the 10-19 group.

My village was routinely recording 5/6 cases a week a few weeks ago (and that caused slight alarm). Last week 38.