Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@Jenasaurus

QueenStromba

Well finally made it to Tier 4 from Tier 2, as we thought it should be

I wish we were :( We're now on around 400/100k, up from 108/100k 18 days ago. Still tier 3. London commuter town that the Govt seems not to care about 😞 Local social media suggest people think this means it's party time.

Tier 3 means you still can't do anything socially at all though and nowhere is open in hospitality?

[quote littleowl1]@Jenasaurus Welcome to tier 4!!

I think at this rate the whole country will be in tier 4 by mid Jan.

It reminds me of the three tier alert system in October (medium/high/v high) - so many councils were deemed v high it became a bit futile and they had to scrap it and start again. You couldn't keep adding tiers very easily without sounding daft - tier "very very very very high" - doesn't have the right ring to it, does it? I suspect it didnt line up too well with Cummings' 3-word jingles.

The tier numbering was a bit more clever as numbers can be added easily enough - although same issue with tier 126! Hence the toughening up restrictions per tier rather than adding tiers ad infinitum!

We should have bets on what will be the highest number tier by mid Jan.[/quote]
Nah, half of us will be in tier 5 or 6 by then.

@Jinglingmod

Tier 3 means you still can't do anything socially at all though and nowhere is open in hospitality?

Gyms are still open but not for exercise classes and you can still meet family for Christmas.

Oh, I was forgetting about gyms (are they places you'd party?) and, as for Christmas Day, no one I know in my tier 3 area is mixing households on Christmas Day but we should be in tier 4 and know it

@Jinglingmod

Oh, I was forgetting about gyms (are they places you'd party?) and, as for Christmas Day, no one I know in my tier 3 area is mixing households on Christmas Day but we should be in tier 4 and know it

well, many gyms hire out rooms for parties.

DH was triaged via 111 to A&E a couple of weeks ago (we were hoping to avoid it even then) and said it was very quiet. Temp taken, no companions allowed, masks and sanitiser aplenty. Bad news is he has trauma outpatient appointment tomorrow so we are bricking it now as rates are soaring.

We’ve joined T4 too. Our cases p100,000 have more than doubled in the last week.
I definitely can’t see schools going back that is so fast and shocking. I’ve started to prepare dd for staying home and studying , rather than the last minute shock announcement we’re bound to get.

This is our line. We’re tier 4 already so there’s no doubt it’s the not new strain. Behaviour hasn’t changed that much.

@Ontopofthesunset

DH was triaged via 111 to A&E a couple of weeks ago (we were hoping to avoid it even then) and said it was very quiet. Temp taken, no companions allowed, masks and sanitiser aplenty. Bad news is he has trauma outpatient appointment tomorrow so we are bricking it now as rates are soaring.

I had lung function testing the Saturday before last. The OOH GP service which is normally in A&E was running from the outpatients clinic. I would assume that they're generally using outpatients space to see patients that they normally see on A&E since most outpatients appointments are over the phone. This hospital have now cancelled all non urgent operations and outpatients appointments so they've now got a lot more space for inpatients and urgent care.

It's been stark comparing regions and local council 7 day rates around the country on the dash board.

The steep rises are very clearly seen.

Weirdly, our local Tier 4 hospital had a hugely non-urgent appointment for DS in early January. I called up assuming the cancellation / defer letter was lost in the post, but no. I've delayed it until late January and she gave me a dark warning that it could be delayed from there. Yes, sure, fine - I just really don't want to have a non-urgent appointment if mutant covid strains overrun the area thanks, and I'm still feel like that at the end of January.

Our local outpatients is now A&E overspill (and packed with patients on trolleys) because there are no beds left in the hospital.

Outpatients is all over the phone.

OH has managed to leave the hospital for a grand total of 9 hours since Monday morning. He’s a consultant and they’re so short staffed he’s working as a consultant during the day and covering as a registrar overnight. Please stay at home people, and sit on your sofas so you don’t injure yourselves!!!

I’ve just remembered I have my annual mammogram in Jan (previous cancer). I’m going to have to chase it up , I’m much more likely to die from cancer than covid, so I’m about to get a taste of what’s going on for people with routine appts aren’t I . The hospital is where I used to live in London, I still go there as I felt safer as they treated me . I suppose tho it’s not the end of the world if it gets bumped to post Easter.

I think anyone who has frequented this thread and spent a bit of time ogling graphs over the course of this pandemic is realising that this "new strain" is not being over-egged. I'm finding the hockey sticks pretty stressful. I imagine working in hospitals right now is like standing on a beach, watching tsunami approaching. Those poor Covid ward staff.

Yes agreed @Noellodee.

I wonder how many people really realise.

@littleowl1 ‘s table shows it starkly.

@Noellodee

I think anyone who has frequented this thread and spent a bit of time ogling graphs over the course of this pandemic is realising that this "new strain" is not being over-egged. I'm finding the hockey sticks pretty stressful. I imagine working in hospitals right now is like standing on a beach, watching tsunami approaching. Those poor Covid ward staff.

The last time I felt like this was on the morning of the 12th of March. I'd stopped leaving the house on the 9th

Accidental posting there:
I stopped going out on the 9th. I'd persuaded my husband to stop going to work every day after the 11th. His office rang at 7am on the 12th to tell him not to come in because he had colleagues exposed at a conference the previous week.

@MRex my fiend is a consultant specialising is adolescent medicine in the Midlands. She says that throughout this pandemic her clinics have been unaffected and she's generally seeing less referrals.

I think that is because children's medicine is generally kept separate from adult medicine and so there hasn't been the same knock on effects as in other areas.

Noel yes! I know my position has changed on schools / national lockdown for example and I would now be supportive of a short closure until mid / end Jan.

We need to learn how to react to what is in front of us now rather than focusing on the past.

I hope also we get rid of some of the Covidiots and the conspiracy theorists get less airtime to spew their lies on social media.

And I reay hope they approve Oxford & we get that rolled out.

I know its not perfect but every little helps.

It really feels like a race between how long we can hold this off and the vaccine. But at least we have a horse or two in the race now.

I agree re the feeling similar to March, and the tsunami analogy.

Tbh feels a bit worse than March

But thankfully! Tempered by vaccine

@Noellodee

I think anyone who has frequented this thread and spent a bit of time ogling graphs over the course of this pandemic is realising that this "new strain" is not being over-egged. I'm finding the hockey sticks pretty stressful. I imagine working in hospitals right now is like standing on a beach, watching tsunami approaching. Those poor Covid ward staff.

I agree. Today has been the hardest for me since March. I'm on my 9th day of isolation as DH tested positive. He's feeling much better so I should be happy but something in me has shifted and I can't find my optimism or anything positive. I just feel like crying, and maybe I'll just have a cry and see if that helps.

I don't think the stress of Christmas is helping. I've found myself a bit more tetchy recently.

I know what I am going on Xmas day but everyone else is terrifying me.

Thankfully distance made our decision so much easier.

Hopefully though, once we get past Christmas Day and I guess New Year then we can just totally focus on getting this virus under control once and for all.

I almost forget about Brexit. Its surreal I have spent so much time worrying about it since 2016 and I almost forget about it now