Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

To @Quarantino 's question

It sounded like they are really concerned about this second variant. Further mutated. Could mean it dodges the vaccines??

Sorry, being alarmist. In the absence of data you rely more on things like non-verbal cues!

What’s the timeline on this SA strain?

Why are flights banned from U.K. but not SA earlier if known earlier

The death rate is concerning today; it's the highest it's been in the second wave.
But you wouldn't expect it, because if you take the time lag you expect with deaths, the current explosion of cases shouldn't have had time to effect people. 2-4 weeks ago cases were under half what they are now.

@DecemberStar

It sounded like they are really concerned about this second variant. Further mutated. Could mean it dodges the vaccines??

Sorry, being alarmist. In the absence of data you rely more on things like non-verbal cues!

I was surprised that they said it was more mutated as the branch lengths on the phylogeny are pretty much identical to the UK strain. Maybe it has more mutations in the spike protein.

@Witchend

The death rate is concerning today; it's the highest it's been in the second wave. But you wouldn't expect it, because if you take the time lag you expect with deaths, the current explosion of cases shouldn't have had time to effect people. 2-4 weeks ago cases were under half what they are now.

Yeah, January is going to be utter carnage. We're moving house soon and I was keen to get some wooden flooring done ASAP but I think DH will be banned from using power tools until at least March.

Have the heat maps disappeared? I can't seem to find them today.

@FeelingBIue

Have the heat maps disappeared? I can't seem to find them today.

The ones with the age ranges? I've not seen one of those for a while - I assume they all turned black.

I think DH will be banned from using power tools until at least March.

Oh dear, is that banned now in T4? We've only got half the back fence up

I think they have. And the over 60’s rate has gone too. The cynic in me would say they are remaining them as the rates in school aged children getting very high.
But in fairness it was flagged as experimental, and they are going into a reduced service over Christmas so might be just cutting back

The age heat maps were there yesterday, I screenshotted a couple on another thread

@Barbie222

I think DH will be banned from using power tools until at least March.

Oh dear, is that banned now in T4? We've only got half the back fence up

I think you don't want to do anything that might lead to a trip to A&E.

@ceeveebee

The age heat maps were there yesterday, I screenshotted a couple on another thread

Thanks for the reassurance ... always worried about early onset alzheimers which runs in the family.

But queen he could get some glamorous injury just so some posters could use it as a 'some people in hospital dismembered themselves with a power tool and it was put down as 'with covid' '

I think you don't want to do anything that might lead to a trip to A&E

I have uttered this a couple of times recently. Half in jest but also meaning it.

@MarshaBradyo

I think you don't want to do anything that might lead to a trip to A&E

I have uttered this a couple of times recently. Half in jest but also meaning it.

Go ask the people on the Wales thread how bad it can get.

No I’m agreeing with you Stromba

I have said don’t do that there’s no ambulances to dc. They are unscathed by this, hence the tone is light. But I really do mean don’t do that, just in case.

@MarshaBradyo

No I’m agreeing with you Stromba

I have said don’t do that there’s no ambulances to dc. They are unscathed by this, hence the tone is light. But I really do mean don’t do that, just in case.

Yeah, I know! I just meant that the half jesting might give the impression that it's less bad than it actually is.

I was a bit worried people would say how can you do that to your dc! But they’re fine.

DD ended up in A&E two nights ago having come off her bike and gashed her chin badly. She says she was in and out within half an hour and didn't see another patient. I guess the substantial meal requirement for drinking alcohol has cut down the usual 11pm A&E attendances. So you may be ok there. What you really need to avoid is needing a hip replacement, or other non urgent operation or investigative procedure. Unfortunately I don't think avoiding power tools will help you much there.

@MarshaBradyo

I think you don't want to do anything that might lead to a trip to A&E

I have uttered this a couple of times recently. Half in jest but also meaning it.

we have been mindful of this over the past year to be honest.

@herecomestheSon me too. I've dissuaded DH from using the chainsaw or putting up Christmas lights!

QueenStromba

Well finally made it to Tier 4 from Tier 2, as we thought it should be

@Jenasaurus Welcome to tier 4!!

I think at this rate the whole country will be in tier 4 by mid Jan.

It reminds me of the three tier alert system in October (medium/high/v high) - so many councils were deemed v high it became a bit futile and they had to scrap it and start again. You couldn't keep adding tiers very easily without sounding daft - tier "very very very very high" - doesn't have the right ring to it, does it? I suspect it didnt line up too well with Cummings' 3-word jingles.

The tier numbering was a bit more clever as numbers can be added easily enough - although same issue with tier 126! Hence the toughening up restrictions per tier rather than adding tiers ad infinitum!

We should have bets on what will be the highest number tier by mid Jan.

In other news, the table of cases in each council is updated on the homepage of www.covidmessenger.com

And for all the lovely peeps who took the time to drop me a message, I do plan to add back the rank column - I hadn't appreciated how many people used it