Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Look into the process you have to finish the trial you have approval for. Or re-do

You want to start from the beginning trial for this based on Blair?

He’s been wrong twice now. Not sure why he keeps getting air time on this.

@MRex
Totally agree, but I would like to see the MHRA be proactive and look into if it actually a viable option or fluff. If scientists say it's fluff, than so be it :)

But MHRA won't need to look into it to know it'll take time, they know they would require a trial and that the trial takes more time than the vaccine production based on the information they already have. It might be worthwhile for a country way down the queue for receiving the vaccine to try out, but not for the UK.

@MRex

Science can't work like that *@TheSunIsStillShining*, they need to give some people one dose and others a placebo, wait and monitor. That takes time. Longer than producing the extra vaccines!

I was thinking more along the lines of first looking at current trial data to figure out the feasibility of the idea even. Consult with BioNTech if they have enough current data to prove/disprove this theory or if they need a new trial series. If the later, then because of actual time it is obviously not a feasible option. I'm not saying Blair is right/wrong. I have no idea. What I'd like to see is UK being proactive and driving the process forward instead of just waiting to see if anyone else comes up with the idea and follows through.

If scientists say it's fluff, than so be it

That’s exactly what they were saying about this idea during the select committee meeting this morning.

Tony Blair knows best though...

No it’s better than MRHA maintains trial standards / approval process they have in place.

That

@MarshaBradyo

No it’s better than MRHA maintains trial standards / approval process they have in place.

Absolutely. Especially with the risk of vaccine rejection.

Rejection by sceptical people that is.

I'll give a bit of sidebar context.
In my line of work I have seen 2 things happen most commonly.

1. Many ideas pop up and never followed through because people throw ideas out -that's the easy part- but never put in the legwork to prove if it's a viable option
2. Many ideas pop up - then one gets randomly selected and done. Again without correct feasibility study. Because "we are Agile"

so, sorry, I am biased against pondering :)

@PurpleDaisies
Haven't seen that, thanks

Science has sped up and changed its approach in many ways in this pandemic. Heard an interesting piece on this.

But changing the approval process after a trial has been completed need to be one of the things that are immutable.

We still need solid processes. Law and legal process is another one we need in a pandemic. The above will prove necessary against the extra strains and pressures that happen.

I reckon this will be interesting to study at some point, as an aside.

I was thinking more along the lines of first looking at current trial data to figure out the feasibility of the idea even. Consult with BioNTech if they have enough current data to prove/disprove this theory or if they need a new trial series.
MHRA already has all the data, they agreed every test protocol at every stage because the vaccine is from the UK and they are the regulator here. Sometimes an idea has merit, sometimes it is just rubbish. In my line of work, I work on changing people's perspectives and I appreciate the frustration that can bring when you can see a clear solution, but just as often I come across people with bright ideas of "can't we just" who have no understanding of the technical implications of their idea. It's ok to raise a suggestion, but if the time it would take is obviously longer than the time for the thing you're working around then it's correct to just discard it. Some countries like Peru or Turkey aren't front of the queue for a particular vaccine and this would absolutely make sense for them to get some early dose access and maximise time when the doses arrive. It doesn't make sense in the UK when the suggestion requires a process of around 4 months to save around 3 months of time in vaccinations. It's just nonsense. Drivel. Bollocks. Typical Blair just wanting something to say for the sake of having his name mentioned. Etc.

It’s actually annoying he takes up time with this stuff. Not like the people who have to address it don’t have enough going on.

I think honestly it's a bit rough to say "What I'd like to see is UK being proactive and driving the process forward instead of just waiting..." when the UK scientists have one of the first vaccine candidates that's ready and works (Oxford), does more genome testing than any other country, is leading the charge on making mRNA vaccines robust enough for widespread use (Imperial), identifying dexamethasone as critical in treatment, and is kindly offering the initial Oxford vaccine at cost for developing countries. I won't pick out just your country in comparison, how about you tell me what exactly has been contributed by the entirety of the rest of Europe apart from the trials of lateral flow tests in Italy? A fat load of "just waiting" is what it looks like to me.

Hear, hear @Mrex.

U.K. science is fantastic. The criticism is really unfair.

@MRex
Agreed, hence me stating the need for a feasibility study. This can be done in 10 mins if something is utter bollocks, just because it's a fancy name it doesn't have to be long :)
TBF - as long as the ones who are in the know didn't dismiss it off hand, but looked at evidence, concluded that on current data:no, needs new trial than I'm perfectly happy with the process and the outcome.
And next time I'll read up more on what I say something about :) I actually just read the basics idea (not even mentioning Blair) and thought it was something that seemed sensible enough for follow up

@MRex

I think honestly it's a bit rough to say "What I'd like to see is UK being proactive and driving the process forward instead of just waiting..." when the UK scientists have one of the first vaccine candidates that's ready and works (Oxford), does more genome testing than any other country, is leading the charge on making mRNA vaccines robust enough for widespread use (Imperial), identifying dexamethasone as critical in treatment, and is kindly offering the initial Oxford vaccine at cost for developing countries. I won't pick out just your country in comparison, how about you tell me what exactly has been contributed by the entirety of the rest of Europe apart from the trials of lateral flow tests in Italy? A fat load of "just waiting" is what it looks like to me.

Quite.

@MRex

I think honestly it's a bit rough to say "What I'd like to see is UK being proactive and driving the process forward instead of just waiting..." when the UK scientists have one of the first vaccine candidates that's ready and works (Oxford), does more genome testing than any other country, is leading the charge on making mRNA vaccines robust enough for widespread use (Imperial), identifying dexamethasone as critical in treatment, and is kindly offering the initial Oxford vaccine at cost for developing countries. I won't pick out just your country in comparison, how about you tell me what exactly has been contributed by the entirety of the rest of Europe apart from the trials of lateral flow tests in Italy? A fat load of "just waiting" is what it looks like to me.

Ditto! Tg we have them

I don't mind the anti UK govt stuff on these threads, cause well they are crap.

But to say the UK is not being proactive in the fight against Covid is fale and actually a blatant downright lie........

Ah crap.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/23/englands-hospitals-more-covid-patients-on-christmas-day-than-ever-before?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

*false

The problem is that the way most vaccines work you hope to see your body produce antibodies and an immune response to the virus. My understanding is that this immune response reaches it's peak quite quickly after a first dose and then rapidly declines, hence the need for another jab.

How long it takes for this first burst of immunity to last we don't know as it hasn't been tested.

If we single dose until the vaccine we have runs out, we could just be seeing infection rates pushed back by a couple of months and then the opportunity to effectively protect the most vulnerable will have been wasted.

@FeelingBIue

The problem is that the way most vaccines work you hope to see your body produce antibodies and an immune response to the virus. My understanding is that this immune response reaches it's peak quite quickly after a first dose and then rapidly declines, hence the need for another jab.

How long it takes for this first burst of immunity to last we don't know as it hasn't been tested.

If we single dose until the vaccine we have runs out, we could just be seeing infection rates pushed back by a couple of months and then the opportunity to effectively protect the most vulnerable will have been wasted.

This makes Blair not only irritating, time wasting but also dangerous. If anyone believes his spurious claims. Wish he’d stop speaking without knowledge.

@MRex

I think honestly it's a bit rough to say "What I'd like to see is UK being proactive and driving the process forward instead of just waiting..." when the UK scientists have one of the first vaccine candidates that's ready and works (Oxford), does more genome testing than any other country, is leading the charge on making mRNA vaccines robust enough for widespread use (Imperial), identifying dexamethasone as critical in treatment, and is kindly offering the initial Oxford vaccine at cost for developing countries. I won't pick out just your country in comparison, how about you tell me what exactly has been contributed by the entirety of the rest of Europe apart from the trials of lateral flow tests in Italy? A fat load of "just waiting" is what it looks like to me.

Okay, fair points. Let me start again and rephrase, instead of digging a deeper hole for nothing :)

1. I admire all researchers and they have done a wonderful job regardless of what country they are in
2. I wasn't thinking specifically of scientists when I wrote the post and was heavily biased by totally different industry workings. My bad totally.
3. I was just trying to say that it's an idea that looks good, maybe ppl who are in the know should look into it. By the time I actually wrote this news did come out that they have and dismissed it based on facts or the lack of. And I haven't caught up with news before posting. Given the amount of info being dumped on us on a minute by minute bases thanks to the internet, this happens.

All good? :)