Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I'm looking at the hospital data for Wales now - they've got almost twice the spring peak in hospitals! I'm really confused about their data though. Their admission rate barely dropped in the summer but their inpatient numbers dropped right down - at points they had fewer inpatients than daily admissions. We're they just admitting most people for a few hours or is there a problem with the data?

Wales put anyone with anything like covid symptoms down as a covid admission and test later. So any lung issue etc. It makes their admission stats fairly useless.

Ah ok, so anyone with an asthma attack or whatever goes down as a covid admission but most are confirmed as not covid by 8am when they do the head count?

Back in the summer yes, but looking at their stats it might be that now many are being diagnosed as covid the next day.

I know we should all focus on cases by specimen date not reporting date, and that there is usually a lag of a few days, but it looks to me that there is a bit of a backlog in tests being processed (unsurprising I guess as I am sure there is a huge demand surge in London / SE)
Look at this chart from RP131 Twitter, showing how yesterday’s reported cases map to specimen dates. And compare this to one week ago.

For London, last week 63% of the reported cases were from the previous 2 days. Now, only 35% are from the previous two days.

Would help if I attached them!

Very interesting from Prof Ferguson, that Denmark is doing the highest amount of sequencing per Capita, but despite having a low case rate and low population, have found cases of the new variant. The suggestion is very strong that the fact they have found the new variant is not because other countries don't have it, but because they are not looking for it. He believes it will already be present across Europe (no big surprise there).

Apparently, the UK does 45% of the total global genomic sequencing.

Yes from Washington Post

“It may very well be here. It may have even started here. The sequencing in the U.S. is so sporadic,” Jeremy Luban, a virologist at the University of Massachusetts Medical School, told The Washington Post.

As the CDC pointed out, we know little about the variants circulating in the United States because the country has failed to take advantage of genetic sequencing. The U.K., on the other hand, is leading the charge.

“It makes sense that it was detected first in the U.K. because they have probably the world’s best surveillance program. It would not shock me at all to find out that it also is circulating in the U.S.,” said Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Georgetown Center for Global Health Science and Security.

Nellodee thats interesting.

I've got to admit I do feel we are a bit hard done by at the moment .

Glad the borders are closed though and hope it remains that way apart from freight / post getting through.

I feel the more knowledge you have the better you can tackle it.

Although you have to then make adjustments for the total incompetency of the govt.

But I feel aggrieved that our excellent scientists are being doubted due to the incompetency of the govt.

Do other countries have this recent looking spike in child cases? This is being put down, quite a lot, to the new variant and I am sceptical, must admit.

Age distribution of new variant cannot not be determined with confidence yet

Yes, indeed , but other countries would equally report a strange rise in cases in one age group.

Interesting suggestion from Blair this morning that the U.K. should speed up the vaccine rollout out by giving as many people as possible the first jab now and waiting to give the second dose when more vaccine is available (i.e. after longer than 21 days). This could double the number of people vaccinated by end January.

I attach the results of the Biontech/Pfizer study. The effectiveness after 10 days of the first jab is just amazing, with relatively little difference from the second jab. The chart shows that for the first week after vaccination, the number of infections in the vaccinated and control groups was identical but from 10 days after the first dose, there were minimal infections in the vaccinated group.

The table reports effectiveness in the 21 days after dose 1 as 52%, but this is an average of zero effectiveness for roughly the first 10 days and ~90% effectiveness afterwards.

Assuming that we just delay when the second jab happens, that seems a pretty compelling reason to give as many people as possible one jab now. It would save much more lives than having some ‘double-protected’ and others no protection when waiting for more vaccine.

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

Nellodee yes I saw that too!

It's worrying that other countries don't pick it up.

Piggy its hard to say.

Other countries don't do as many tests and I wouldn't know where to look for the breakdown of their tests.

Are there more asymptomatic cases not identified or are they better at targeting their testing where needed.

I have read in US for example that if one family member is positive they don't test the rest even if symptomatic.

German deaths at the moment are hard to tie back in with their number of positive cases, but they also had much fewer deaths 1st time around so maybe playing catch up.

They also wear masks in school and if they do send kids back in Jan then surely this has to be mandated for secondary school pupils.

I think this new strain has spread further in UK than elsewhere, but we don't know what will happen elsewhere in the next few weeks. They have the advantage of our scientists expertise to make their decisions.

Do other countries tests pick up same deletion on new strain? I have no idea if same ones are used or not

Eye they just addressed this. Not possible due to MHRA approval dependent on two doses.

@MarshaBradyo

Eye they just addressed this. Not possible due to MHRA approval dependent on two doses.

Maybe MHRA could revisit their decision? They seem to be okay with potentially giving the green light to AZ with only 70% efficacy.

I doubt it Sun

‘MHRA has given a licence to the vaccine on the basis that people receive two doses. Giving just one would require a new application by the manufacturer.’

Okay, then put in a new application. Not rocket science. It's a phone call to BioNTech and start sorting it.
I find the lack of wanting to sort things out in this country -in general, over 8 years experience- quite frankly appalling.

From the start?

Bizarre! It’s taken months to get here

Yikes, I'd rather have the MHRA take scientific decisions rather than Blair please. The trouble is that giving just one dose is untested by Oxford AstraZeneca; without some boost to the immunity to make the dose kick in, immunity could degrade faster.

@Nellodee - back in early summer the UK was doing a shocking 80% of the world's genome testing, so at least some countries have increased their efforts.

I’ll stick with the protocol we have. Since it’s been approved.

If UK really wanted to do this they would initiate contact. But it's much easier to point to the other party. But the other party has 150 more countries to deal with, they don't give a shit specifically about each one. They don't have the luxury of time to do it.

Science can't work like that @TheSunIsStillShining, they need to give some people one dose and others a placebo, wait and monitor. That takes time. Longer than producing the extra vaccines!