Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Remember patterns in reporting may change over Christmas, as even more people will be having longer Christmas breaks and stuff, so don't look too deeply into what happens at normal "Monday" etc. over the next couple of weeks.

160 fines in York of people travelling in from other areas to drink in the pub - no, 160 fines for people mixing with other households in the pub. The police aren’t fining people who travel from tier 3 to go to a pub, because that’s completely legal to do. They are pretending that they are, on social media, which I don’t think is very helpful. Having the police pull you over at a roadblock as you drive 3 miles from your house in tier 3 to the supermarket you always use in tier 2, just adds to the general feeling that the “rules” are ridiculous.

Rant about the police over. The guardian are also reporting that the government have stopped the plan to convert test centres to use lateral flow tests, while they figure out if they’re actually any good. Possibly should have checked that before letting students rely on them.
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/plans-for-30-minute-covid-lateral-flow-tests-in-england-halted-over-accuracy-fears

Is the extra dark purple (800+ cases/100k) new today? I hadn't seen it before, even when Northern cases were that high in the autumn.

@Piggyinblankets

Not me witchend but my friend who was positive was phoned incessantly by test and trace, even though she is a teacher so the school did most of the heavy lifting. She felt like she was being stalked!

That's fairly well confirmed my suspicion.

They haven't been honest on several accounts, and so it looks likely either they've given a false phone number or said they haven't been in contact with anyone-which means there's at least 4 people that I know of who were in fairly close contact in a closed space less than 12 hours before the earliest they have said they had symptoms. And, no he didn't bother to tell them himself. Twat.

Your last word seems to sum him up.

@Witchend DH was contacted on Thursday 2 hours after his positive test by track and trace and he had to give details of contacts in the 48 hours before symptoms / positive test.

He also received an email at the same time asking the same.

As his householders DC and I were named as contacts and received our isolation notice 30 mins later by text and Email.

It was very efficient.

DH has been called three times since by T&T who have been lovely and very helpful.

I think S Wales had that dark purple yesterday but it is creeping alarmingly.

Yeah, everyone I know who's been a close contact has been driven nearly insane by the number of calls they get. In fact, whilst I was awaiting a result, it was the incessant phone calls from test and trace and inflicting that on colleagues I was most worried about!

jelly more alarmingly these are the same tests they want to use in schools as an alternative to self isolation!

Prof John (?) Deeks said the extra 20 million should be donated to a third world country rather than be used here. Not quite sure what that says about lorry drivers, teachers and teenagers..

The table of cases on www.covidmessenger.com is updated with todays data for anyone who wants to check cases / cases per 100K in their council.

The new fixed header I added earlier is still working well - so its super easy now to navigate on phone/ipad or desktop. I am so pleased with that feature.

Tomorrow I am going to try to find time to add a percentage change week over week. Given the increased transmission of the new strain, I think it would be good to be able to easily see at both council level and across all councils in a county the % increase week over week. For example if you sorted the table by county and looked at councils in Kent you would see an almost universal doubling of cases week over week. Frightening stuff.

I heard Ireland has banned Boxing Day sales until a later date in 2021 which I thought was probably a good idea to avoid crowds. Hopefully there aren't many who would take their chances with Covid for 20% off a pair of jeans but I guess the govt doesnt want to take the chance!

Lancashire is going to be tier 4 imminently I am sure of it, Preston is now at 359 per 100k and the hospital is at breaking point due to staff absences. The only question is whether they do it before or after Christmas Day

Well since Prof Deeks reckons the tests only pick up 3% of cases I don’t think any country should be given them.

I wonder if they’ll find the tests don’t work on the new variant (so they don’t have to admit they didn’t work on the old variant either)?

Really? It was only up 4% 2 days ago (no of tests).

@InMySpareTime

Is the extra dark purple (800+ cases/100k) new today? I hadn't seen it before, even when Northern cases were that high in the autumn.

It was new yesterday.

I don’t think any area got to over 800 in the northwest for more than a day or two

Tests are up 13.7% in same period according to today's summary.

Dinosaur train - my city much higher than that and our hospital declared critical incident with staffing levels a week ago. We're still tier 3 .

Hull had one day which was something like 1,600 per 100,000 but obviously not a rolling average, just a spike (within their already very high period).

All of Lancashire though? Fylde is below 100/100k for example and has been low for a while. Would seem silly to move them into Tier 4, but leave Waverley, Surrey in tier 2 at over 200/100k.

7 day rolling average of Pillar 2 tests is up 18% from 14th to 21st, by date conducted.

7 day rolling average of UK cases by date reported is up 61% in that period.

I think they’ll do the whole as Lancashire yes, as a) the low rates in Fylde and West Lancashire didn’t stop them still being tier 3 at the transition back into tiers and b) the 3 high concentrations of BAME residents are Preston, Burnley and Blackburn so they won’t want to make the “whiter” areas a different tier from the more mixed areas.

Yes, it's quite clear, PatriciaHolm, we're not seeing cases up just because of more testing.

@littleowl1

The table of cases on www.covidmessenger.com is updated with todays data for anyone who wants to check cases / cases per 100K in their council.

The new fixed header I added earlier is still working well - so its super easy now to navigate on phone/ipad or desktop. I am so pleased with that feature.

Tomorrow I am going to try to find time to add a percentage change week over week. Given the increased transmission of the new strain, I think it would be good to be able to easily see at both council level and across all councils in a county the % increase week over week. For example if you sorted the table by county and looked at councils in Kent you would see an almost universal doubling of cases week over week. Frightening stuff.

I heard Ireland has banned Boxing Day sales until a later date in 2021 which I thought was probably a good idea to avoid crowds. Hopefully there aren't many who would take their chances with Covid for 20% off a pair of jeans but I guess the govt doesnt want to take the chance!

Thank you for the new features. It is now much easier to read on a tablet. I really appreciate the work you are putting in.

@Jinglingmod and @PatriciaHolm - you are correct and my figures were not. Was looking at two absolute dates and not the rolling average. I'll ask MN to delete it.

I know the numbers are awful today but I do like the addition of vaccine information.