Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

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UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

My tiny parish is actually down (Tier 4), and the local larger area, although still up, the percentage increases are dropping. I hope this is not a blip. The very dark area in Waverley has now dropped a level too......must have been a care home or similar.

Very interesting. I could be wrong in my theory, but although cases in my borough have increased, the rate has slowed and the rate in my village specifically has dropped. Small figures so impossible to extrapolate from but I do wonder if the sudden massive rise was school linked. We did home learning last week . At least potentially the high nos were due to some specific outbreak anyway . Still high figs but more in line with rest of borough. Be interesting to see how the pattern continues with school hols.

Very scary overall with so many areas having rising rates now .

What no does test and trace use? Is it withheld ? I never answer unknown calls. Presumably they’d leave a message !

It's withheld, when ds2 had to be tester the phones 8 times during the day, god knows how many it would have been if he was positive!

Can they not text ? My job involves calling people and I would normally follow up a call with a text to explain why I am calling and find this much more successful than continuous calling!!

This article was very informative about how the new variant was discovered and why, although it has been around since September, it was only brought up as a problem in the last couple of weeks.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/22/new-coronavirus-variant-b117-transmitting

How long does it take following the enhanced restrictions (Tier 4 etc) would you expect to see the case numbers stabilizing then decreasing?)

My hometown have risen again, do you think Crawley will go into Tier 4?

If the restrictions are sufficient to reduce cases, then it seems to be 7 to 14 days to see a change in number of cases (if on average people take 7 days from infection to symptoms and another 3 to get tested and result , then it will be 10 days after the change )

We don't know if the restrictions are sufficient and sufficiently well adhered to.

If children are now a bigger transmission route, then we may find tier 4 helps until they go back to school

@Jenasaurus

How long does it take following the enhanced restrictions (Tier 4 etc) would you expect to see the case numbers stabilizing then decreasing?)

Judging by the last lockdown, about a week stabilise and another week to clearly fall. Remember though that the last lockdown stopped working in London and the East of England before it ended so tier 4 is unlikely to work with the schools open in the same way they have been. I would hope that we'll see a reduction in numbers by first week of January but that will almost certainly reverse if they don't do something drastic about the schools.

@Jenasaurus

My hometown have risen again, do you think Crawley will go into Tier 4?

I don't know why it's not already tier 4 - most of Sussex should be.

I think it will take slightly longer to stabilise this time, partly because of the strain, partly because of the case backlog and partly because previously behaviours had already started to change before the lockdown / stricter tier came in. I’m in the NW and before tier 3 came in first time round we’d had warning signs for so many weeks behaviours had already started to change. Parts of London and others went from tier 2-4 in the space of days. That’s “it’s ok to eat out with friends” to “oh crap” in a short space of time.

QueenStromba is it to keep Gatwick open do you think?

@TheDinosaurTrain

I think it will take slightly longer to stabilise this time, partly because of the strain, partly because of the case backlog and partly because previously behaviours had already started to change before the lockdown / stricter tier came in. I’m in the NW and before tier 3 came in first time round we’d had warning signs for so many weeks behaviours had already started to change. Parts of London and others went from tier 2-4 in the space of days. That’s “it’s ok to eat out with friends” to “oh crap” in a short space of time.

You could be right. I'm normally well up on stats and figures but the last time I'd looked cases were dropping in most London boroughs - I'd assumed they were rising slowly after dropping until the first week of December. In our favour though is the fact that the schools are shut and a lot of people will have been isolating before going to see the grandparents.

I hope they close nurseries as well as schools this time, my DD works in a nursery and I worry about her a lot as she has a compromised immunne system

@Jenasaurus

QueenStromba is it to keep Gatwick open do you think?

No, I don't think so. They're mostly basing their decisions on current case rate while failing to account for the rate of increase.

My DS works in as an analyst and has said his thoughts are that next Wednesday we will be looking at 75K cases a day and 1000 deaths, I really hope he isnt right

@Jenasaurus

I hope they close nurseries as well as schools this time, my DD works in a nursery and I worry about her a lot as she has a compromised immunne system

The evidence base for closing nurseries would be very weak - it causes huge economic damage as it so badly impairs the ability of parents to work and they've never been identified as a major source of spread. They opened a long time before schools were open to most students, have stayed open ever since and you can't see their effect on the case numbers in nearly the way you can schools.

A lot of staff from the hospital use the nursery that DD goes to si they would be stuck if it was to close. It stayed open during lockdown and up to now and is yet to have a reported case.

Thanks littleowl - I appreciate my Covid Messenger messages in my inbox every day!

Cases in my London borough were stable for ages and are now through the roof. I think those last few weeks of term were instrumental in this rapid transmission. There was a dip after half-term when there were still plenty of teens mixing, but not for hours in confined spaces like in schools.

12 confirmed cases at DS's school (year 12 and 13 only) since Friday. Prior to that 4 cases all term in the entire year 9 -13 cohort.

I'm wondering how much if the recent surge in cases is to do with students returning home in the first two weeks of this month...? Uptake of the lateral flow testing that was offered before they left was pretty low (at my University at least) and it looks as if the tests were crap anyway.

Has this mass migration seeded new outbreaks? London and the Home Counties are very high exporters of students, so it wouldn't be surprising if they were bearing the brunt...?

It's definitely been brewing since November though. Compare London with the North West here - the numbers reduced in the NW all through lockdown but London started rising again before lockdown finished.

Well, the rate of infection in the age group with Uni students in has plummeted right down with secondary aged, primary aged, then 40-49 Yr olds the most infected, so I don't think it's anything to do with Uni students going home.