Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@Wakeupin2022 - that's my big concern with East Sussex; 3* the infections of last week in many areas is quite the increase.

We're right on the border of tier 4 too, although we're on the wrong side The other side is tier 2, their cases today are what ours were yesterday and are rising as quickly - if nothing is done to review tiers until 30th December I think we'll be in for a very hard January and February.

I suspect it'll also impact compliance. Even people who don't look at case numbers will know kids have been being bused across the border for school daily until the end of last week and people shop across both. With tier 4 being so much harsher than tier 2 the difference feels disproportionate. If you look at case numbers you'd understand it's the tier 2 that's wrong, if you don't then I think people are probably not going to cancel Christmas plans given they'd be legal only a couple of miles away.

I think I'm going to have to stop reading the news. Everything I see is some new idiocy.

1. 160 fines in York of people travelling in from other areas to drink in the pub; not because they found.only 160, they found many more dickheads, but because AFTER A WARNING these prize numpties wouldn't leave. Police just told them they'll fine them £200, but fuck-it they'll finish their pint instead.
2. Uzbekistan bans British nationals who've been in Britain in the last 14 days from entering the country; not "any humans", only British nationals. Anyone else of other nationalities in the UK (French, Irish, German, Russian, Polish etc) can travel there no bother, because obviously only British people can pass on the new strain.
3. No toilets provided for the lorry drivers in Kent. Why don't they have toilets anyway, it's not like there's never an issue with that crossing, there's a problem in the news every bloody year with French whoever striking.

I am beginning to despair of humanity today, we're too stupid to live.

I am beginning to despair of humanity today, we're too stupid to live.

I've just been a bit harsh on a post.

With everyone closing their borders too us, it only benefits us. Worried about French freight but I think a lot of that is political marksmanship so should hopefully be resolved. But I suspect some countries are being especially shortsighted especially when they do a lot less testing than us and really have no clue what is about.

As for Drinkers, I think it was madness to put Herefordshire in Tier 1. We are getting a lot locally coming from Tier 3 for a drink and 'substantial' meal.

I think the effect on compliance is difficult either way. I live in currently tier 2 Essex and saw how badly compliance was affected a while ago, before the November lockdown, when the council (uniquely and a bit bizarrely) made a special request to go into tier 2 from tier 1; people largely ignored it because they felt it was arbitrary and political and I think that's actually had a bad long-term impact on Essex. Public goodwill is easily squandered and really difficult to regain.

I actually also agree that the rate of increase for our numbers is extremely worrying, the rate per 100,000 has more than doubled in a week, but they're still currently in the middle of the national table and I think unless you got the messaging extremely clear (and I have little faith in this) that this was about rate of increase not about 'well, you're near a tier 4 area' you'd again find people simply wouldn't comply, particularly if it meant ending Christmas mixing with even less notice than the current tier 4 got. Also, I don't understand where you'd draw the line - where I am we're a lot closer to tier 2 Suffolk than to the tier 4 boundary, so if we went tier 4 because it doesn't make sense to have a tier 2 area next to a tier 4 one then would they go tier 4 too? Wouldn't you then have to keep going until you hit tier 3 Lincolnshire?

Oh, I forgot my most important. It's possible that covid infection rates suddenly dropped across much of the EU yesterday, OR they diverted lab capacity to genome testing and have therefore delayed other testing. Which as we all know can come back to bite. Am I missing something or does it look like a big drop to others?

Now, genome testing showed that the Australia variant and one Italian traveller had the strain from the UK. South Africa developed their own strain with some odd similarities. So, it is common to identify some level of heredity to a degree of accuracy that scientists all agree with. Out of interest, what do people think the EU nations could say if their sudden genome testing identifies that the strain actually originated in Netherlands / France / Belgium / Italy / Czech Republic / Germany / Spain (in rough order of likelihood with Netherlands way out front)?

@TheSunIsStillShining the positivity rates are now on the dashboard. My work in that respect is done.

@boys3
found them! :)

Thank you @littleowl1 , works perfectly for me and so useful

Is there anywhere with recent data that shows where people caught it?

@littleowl1 thank you so much for all the work you do. The table is so clear and helpful (and very, very stark today.)

I'm trying to calm myself down after getting too embroiled in that thread about it all being an overreaction, so I came here for the calm and helpful statistics and commentary. Thank you everyone for all you do here.

My county is tier 2 and borders a tier 4 area but although on the rise hasn't yet taken off in a scary way. I'm watchful, though.

@Eve

Is there anywhere with recent data that shows where people caught it?

Is anyone actually attempting to capture this data? Backwards tracing was recommended but...?

@midgebabe I hope so but I'm not sure. I know I keep bringing it up but the events at DH's work (100% of team positive despite having taken lots of precautions) surely ought to bother looked at so others can learn from them.

I believe test and trace ask you where you've been in the last two weeks but they don't attempt to actually figure out where you got it - any data they collected there would be heavily biased towards catching it in the home, at school or at work because you're not going to get traced if you cought it from a brief encounter at Morrisons or from someone sitting far away from you on the bus.

Daily cases up to almost 37000 and 691 deaths 😢

Can I ask a question from anyone who's tested positive.

Were you phoned by track and trace and asked for phone numbers and places that you'd been in the 24 hours before you got symptoms?

I'm asking because I know someone who tested positive, and people who had contact were not contacted by track and trace. When asked, they've claimed that they've never been contacted, but they'd definitely been in close contact (sharing car) with people.

They're lying about several other things (partner's moved out to friend's house so they can still work type thing) including when they first got symptoms (it conveniently changed when pointed out they shouldn't have been out. Pity they put the first info in writing isn't it?

Dashboard says 22 December but my figures aren't updated.

Tried the word document option and it says

36,804 tested positive
691 deaths

That's triple the deaths from yesterday!

I just feel sick at the thought of those latest figures, it’s heartbreaking. DH is essential worker in London and I’m truly scared at the prospect of him catching Covid and bringing it home to home where 4 of us are shielding.

@Cherrypi

That's triple the deaths from yesterday!

Aren't they usually artificially low on Mondays and artificially high on Tuesdays because of the weekend reporting lag?

They are always low on a Monday. Better comparison is with a week ago. They are still about 180 up on last Tuesday so still bad news.

That might be the weekend delay in reporting Cherrypi.

But scary nevertheless.

x-post.

But yes up one third since this time last week is very bad news.

Not me witchend but my friend who was positive was phoned incessantly by test and trace, even though she is a teacher so the school did most of the heavy lifting. She felt like she was being stalked!

7 day rolling average for cases is up 61%.