Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

We are right on the border of Tier 4 and Tier 2. Popped out yesterday, in the car, to do a round trip, for a click and collect, and the two local towns, one in each tier, are a world apart. One large one totally empty, one small one packed. They are so close, we are between the two, it is surreal. I am assuming that a lot of people are ignoring rules and just popping to their, probably nearer town, to shop.

We are so close to the boundary when we go for a walk down our lane we cross in and out of Tier 4 several times!

That's a worry @Firefliess, unfortunately some people simply won't understand that a test is only good on that day anyway (one sibling of mine included, thankfully parents have pulled the plug and only allow them outside now).

Yes v good points Fire.

As I say, there were 300 tests available when there's usually 3-4 x that.

What astounded me was that both still came back as quickly (quicker for my son). But that can't be relied on.

Does anyone else think that the next tier review may well be before the scheduled date of 30th.

Surely by now the government will be attempting to close the stable door before all the horses have bolted?

I think East Sussex has to flip to Tier 4.

Berkshire and Lincolnshire too.

Northants looks precarious ...in tier 2 but plagued by 1000s of Christmas shoppers yesterday from Tier 4 MK and Beds.

@MRex

Berkshire and Lincolnshire too.

Berkshire's already T4. Same time as London

Oh, good. I had missed that they were already included.

There are lots of pockets of dark purple all over. If these are cases with the new strain, it seems inevitable that the dark purple will spread outwards until all areas merge.

I think they need to move all surrounding counties to Tier 3. Its crazy that you have a tier 2 county surrounding one in Tier 4.

At the very least.......

My MSOA was clinging onto blue for a while, but succumbed into the purple yesterday. That's how it's working at borough and will work at a county scale too.
Anyone left who still thinks the new strain isn't more infectious, just out of interest?

@Wakeupin2022

I think they need to move all surrounding counties to Tier 3. Its crazy that you have a tier 2 county surrounding one in Tier 4.

I don't really see a logical argument for that over a national lockdown - you either treat areas as distinct entities or you accept that viruses spread and this one spreads particularly fast and so having boundaries on restrictions is a bit pointless.

Hardback i said at the very least. I am not against a national lockdown.

But if they are not prepared to do that, then they need to do something.

Every day we had a Tier 2 surrounding a Tier 4 area is madness.

And looking at the numbers you have Tier 2 areas with higher rates of infection than Tier 3.

@Wakeupin2022 I agree. Why wait until 30th? I guess it would cause more issues for Christmas Day mixing and so more anger.....

Love your user name. I had been looking forward to 2021 but I may revise that to 2022 now.

And some tier 3 areas with much higher rates than some of tier 4.

hi folks i just had a very helpful message from a fellow mumsnetter which spurred me to (finally) sort out the column headers on the table on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage so it is much easier to view/sort/filter/navigate as the headers stick to the top of your screen as you scroll down so you don't have to keep scrolling back up to check the column you are looking at.

Any comments/feedback on this new feature most welcome. And please do DM me if for some reason it doesn't work on your device. I have tested it on mobile/ipad/desktop so it should be ok but if I dont know it is broken I wont know to fix it!

Hope you find it helps you slice and dice the data. I am pretty happy with it.

I don't think it really matters if some Tier 3 are higher than Tier 4.

This new strain is very prevalent in the South East now.

It is elsewhere but doesn't seem to have taken hold as much yet. Its surely not the number of people per / 100000 that is critical here. Its the rate of the exponential growth.

If an area is 500/100000 but slowly growing or even decreasing that is less concerning than an area that is 400 / 100000 when a week ago is was 200/100000

I’m tier 2 bordering tier 4. Pubs and restaurants are apparently IDing people to check addresses. Feels a bit uncomfortable , and the local Facebook page is predictably going nuts about people coming ins. Our rate is well over 200 and my village area over 500.

Very helpful addition thank you @littleowl1. I just checked my area and numbers of positives have more than doubled week on week . So it must mean we need to move to tier 4?

And the rate has tripled !
Christ

@MRex we are in West Berkshire, and are most definitely in Tier 4. In the part we are in, Oxfordshire (6 miles to the north) and Hampshire (4 miles to the south Both have faster growing rates of Covid yet are in Tier 2. I have heard some particularly nasty stories coming out of villages and towns that straddle the River Thames where the village shops are in Tier 2 and those unfortunate enough to live on the wrong side of the river are being turned away from the shops as they are in Tier 4. I cannot see how a narrow Tier 4 area surrounded on 3 of it’s 4 sides by Tier 2 areas is either practical or effective.

This tweet shows the difference between Toer 2 surrounding tier 4 and other tier 2's.

TINY THREAD: Tier 4, potential Tier 4, Covid Spread in two plots.

Takeaway - Tier 4 is surrounded by Tier 2 areas - those Tier 2 areas are rising much faster than Tier 2 areas further away from Tier 4. Govt must act now. 1/4

t.co/ysQsMIhg4S

@MRex Anyone left who still thinks the new strain isn't more infectious, just out of interest?
Hope not.