Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

TheSun why do the numbers not add up?

Do you know for definite that we have only received 800k doses?

Do you think they will tell us everything they get a delivery?

Is there not 3 weeks between doses? Do why would they only use 400 k and stop once they got to that when they most likely have more on the way.

The NHS knows what it is doing.

There's been anti Govt and well just anti everything here.

@Tholeonagain - it's a bit soon to tell, but probably not or you'd expect more urgent comms from the hospitals about it. Any increase in cases will still lead to proportionate hospital admissions though, and that has been flagged. I believe it would still change the reasoning behind safety in children being in childcare and schools though, because only children catching and transmitting it at smaller rates than an adult would made that model work at all (and didn't seem to work so well with older teens regardless once rates got above a certain level in local areas).

Thanks - the idea of it being potentially more serious in kids is terrifying

Zoe Hyde has been so unremittingly negative I’ve had to unfollow her at times. So good to see her being the only light , well I think it’s light ? !! Really struggling with idea of schools being closed again.

Not more serious in kids just that they get it (but no evidence they’re particularly ill?)

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge have released their latest nowcast and forecast of COVID-19. Their estimate of the number of new daily cases is 91, 000 (95 % CI, 69, 000 to 119, 000).
www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-latest-covid-19-nowcast-and-forecast-by-the-mrc-biostatistics-unit-at-the-university-of-cambridge/[/quote]
That’s pretty close to lockdown 1 levels isn’t it? And given much of the rise was from Kent where they had lockdown 2 followed by tier 3 it isn’t promising for these measures to be effective enough. This discussion of transmission by children makes me hope govt will look at school measures for January. Doesn’t give much time for schools to get it together to implement though.

@Wakeupin2022
Please reassure me with past examples where gov hasn't fucked up.
I am willing to admit that this week I am even more cynical than before, but the fact that everything is kept secret so that their mess ups are covered doesn't fill me with the hopefulness you have.

And btw, yes, I can easily imagine a scenario where they think they will get more, go ahead and give first doses to more than planned to appease ppl and then just hope for the best. NHS and non-existent PHE are sure to bang their heads but under NDAs and possible can't say anything. I have respect for NHS workers and some for bosses, but if they are being fed lies, then they will do accordingly with the best interest of everyone at heart. Please tell me that my imagination is running wild and there is no proof that they have done this.

Oh wait, let's have a think about how safe schools are. ... or ttr ... or ppe ....

@Piggyinblankets

It says in the minutes that they will have more on age distribution 'next week'.

It also say this:

Work is ongoing to evaluate the ability of Lateral Flow Devices to detect VUI-202012/01

Is that so they can look at the age distribution after the schools broke up?

has anyone noticed the situation in Essex?

Nearly every single council in Essex has doubled week-over-week - from levels that weren't low to begin with.

You can see it if you filter the county column on the table on www.covidmessenger.com and look at the weekly cases columns. I also attach a screenshot.

TheSun this is not the same thing as Track & Trace or even PPE.

Track & Trace was a completely new thing and they put someone completely unqualified in charge. Govt need to take 100% responsibility for the failure.

PPE - there were no UK manufacturers and they had woefully insufficient stocks of PPE in the country - government are 100% irresponsible for that.

Schools - well its different today than it was last week with this new strain, but more should have been done by government to make schools safer. However if schools reopen in January I will be sending my kids back.

Vaccines - done very well by NHS every single year. There is an agreed contract with Pfizer for deliveries & there should be some contingency built in to allow for small delays. I very much doubt its actually the government who are moving it around and to where it wants to be. NHS supply chain are very experienced.

We don't know how much vaccine is in the country. Govt haven't said and Pfizer haven't said. They are unlikely to do so due to security concerns.

This is a tough week for everyone so I apologise if I was a bit short but it's hard going when all you ever see is negativity. Perhaps I am naive to have faith in the NHS professionals from planners to vaccinators.........

@littleowl1 that looks horrendous, especially despite the fact that many people will have been being careful and following rules.

They are now in tier 4 so we have to hope that has some effect.

I do wonder how many people are aware of the figures and trends in their own area. Surely if people see those numbers they will be inclined to do as they have been asked?

And not all of Essex is in Tier 4, at time of writing...

Thank you for correcting me @Piggyinblankets

Same in parts of East London with the increase in positives running significantly ahead of the increased number of tests.

The one thing I have agreed with Trump on - the more tests you do the more positives you'll find.

And no, there are lots of people who have no idea just how bad the figures are, my borough are awful at communication unless, I have discovered, you follow them on twitter. 4th December my area of the borough turned back green on the PHS interactive map; as at 16 December we are now darkest of dark maroon with a nearly tripling of the 7 day case rate. By tomorrow I expect they will need yet another new colour for us.

And yet, I know no one who is ill, and know of no one who knows anyone who is ill. If people positive with the new variant are generally only unwell rather than really sick, then it probably explains the complacency.

East Sussex have large increases too.

it’s a great point @FeelingBIue. It’s a pity there isn’t a metric / parameter for categories of illness.

I we could deduce a percentage of serious cases using daily hospital admissions today versus positive cases say 3 weeks ago. Prob needs a correction for test positivity rate too.

I guess it wouldn’t fully capture long covid cases.

But it would be a start.

I might look at adding that in the new year, time permitting.

@Wakeupin2022
As much as I see your pov I don't agree.
I have faith in NHS and am sure that they are professionals in organizing mass vaccinations. They have been doing it for decades now.
What I am negative about is the information from gov to NHS.
NHS might be stellar, but if shit goes in, shit comes out, regardless of the inbetween stellar capabilities.
so let's just agree that you see it half full, I see it half empty.

school: on this point we are worlds apart, and I don't want to derail this thread.
Last week they knew full well about the new strain. Just as they knew about it a month ago.

@boys3
Do you have the latest positivity rates per borough? Did I just missed them or you gave up on them?

I believe the figure of 800,000 doses was what was delivered the first week we were vaccinating. The last paragraph of this article appears to support the idea we could have several million doses in the country by now. www.bbc.com/news/health-55274833

Or it could be the extra doses in some vials, which could increase the number of doses by up to 40%

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/17/pfizer-vaccine-fda-says-extra-doses-in-vials-can-be-used-potentially-expanding-us-supply

I took ds for a test yesterday, probably just a cold exacerbating asthma but wanted to be sure. I got one too as toddler has been full of snot, both negative (his came back in 12 hours!)

However, the test site was noticeably more busy. When I've booked one before (3 others) there's usually 1200-800 available slots. Yesterday, 300.

Fairly sure most were pre Xmas screening themselves. I wonder if this will show up in data?

1. lower positivity
2. more cases as picking up more asymptomatic positives.

Also, fun fact, brilliant tester showed ds how to test his own nose as he's so dramatically tickled if I go within an inch. Which he did really well. (Hold baton about 2 cm from the fluffy bit and wipe around inside himself.) just incase anyone has the same issue!

[quote Perihelion]Or it could be the extra doses in some vials, which could increase the number of doses by up to 40%

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/17/pfizer-vaccine-fda-says-extra-doses-in-vials-can-be-used-potentially-expanding-us-supply[/quote]

Oh yes, GP mate said you can do this.

@lonelyplanet

East Sussex have large increases too.

Yeah, I've been saying this. I don't know what the government is thinking - all of East Sussex and about half of West Sussex should be tier 4.

@littleowl1

it’s a great point *@FeelingBIue*. It’s a pity there isn’t a metric / parameter for categories of illness.

I we could deduce a percentage of serious cases using daily hospital admissions today versus positive cases say 3 weeks ago. Prob needs a correction for test positivity rate too.

I guess it wouldn’t fully capture long covid cases.

But it would be a start.

I might look at adding that in the new year, time permitting.

While you're adding things. Any chance of a column for percentage increase or decrease? Sortable would be even better.

feelinblue same here re twitter and my borough as I also recently discovered. None of my friends - even people who are generally tuned in - have an idea of the numbers in the borough. Have to say it’s been genuinely shocking where I am to watch the jump in numbers and so quickly. From relatively stable and OK-ish to absolutely rocketing. I obviously understand exponential growth but there is something about watching it in action ...

@Neuro - you're not wrong about pre Christmas rush for tests. DS works in a lab where they test the swabs. Their theoretical capacity is 30,000 tests a day, and they've mostly been well below that in recent weeks having no problems testing all the swabs that they're given each day. He told me that on Sunday, they were given 80,000 - ie nearly 3 times their capacity in just one day . So if course there's now a backlog. Tests are generally shifted between labs based on who has capacity, so this wouldn't be some local blip. It's likely that all the labs in the country were given similar numbers (relative to their theoretical capacity)

You're right that this should result in lower positivity rates, and an increase in cases detected. My worry is that it will also cause delays in getting the tests done for the tests on people who do have symptoms - as they'll be stuck in the queues with the others. This is bad for those people (who may not be as cautious as they should, and whose contacts won't be contacted for many days) and may even cause a temporary dip in reported cases until the labs catch back up. Ie if you can only test 500k samples a day but instead of doing 350k samples of people with symptoms you do only 100k of people with symptoms and 400k of "worried well", your might report fewer cares, because there's another 250k samples from people with symptoms sitting in the queue