Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

New strain seems to infect children more, report from today's NERVTAG meeting says:

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-mutant-children-infection-neil-ferguson-b1777211.html?fbclid=IwAR2GMFryefTDCJrIIJw4l-9YuY1aNmCE4lGzAZ33eXA32k1DQMsYDQrdVMU

@TheSunIsStillShining I’m presuming on the vaccine number that they are expecting a further delivery to allow the second dose to be fully administered.

Oddly quiet though on when any next batch is due to arrive.

Dr Zoë Hyde

@DrZoeHyde
·
31m

I’m sceptical of claims the new UK variant is more transmissible.

An alternative theory is the virus is now simply more prevalent in children, who’ve been attending school with insufficient precautionary measures in place. Of course it will explode under those conditions.

December's already seen this but it is a different way to look at the transmission in children. Basically they have been made available to the virus runs the argument.

Hi folks, the table of daily cases in each council is updated on www.covidmessenger.com - for anyone who likes to check it

That might explain why the cases increased so much during lockdown and why the death figures are way below the case increases. Even allowing for lag and looking specifically at the south east.

But yes, Zoe Hyde's explanation also makes sense.

Would it be so localised though? Re Zoe Hyde

[quote boys3]@TheSunIsStillShining I’m presuming on the vaccine number that they are expecting a further delivery to allow the second dose to be fully administered.

Oddly quiet though on when any next batch is due to arrive. [/quote]
On another thread, someone reported there were currently around 2.5million vaccines in the country. But I don't know what their credentials were!

@MarshaBradyo

Would it be so localised though? Re Zoe Hyde

I suppose it could be like the students in September/ October where it ripped through different areas at different times. First Manchester, then Newcastle, Exeter and Leeds with Bristol a bit later.

Yes @MarshaBradyo that's what I'm wondering.

If Zoe Hyde (and others) are correct, what we would have done is create a world-beating environment for the virus to survive, mutate and transmit.

Let's see what further research reveals.

Although - and guess we will see if it’s true - Ferguson said they have some evidence that this variant is infecting children specifically at a higher rate than others on radio 4 ( as mention in the independent).

I’m assuming they have accounted for the fact that the variant is more common where general levels of infection are currently higher.

By than others I mean that other strains of the virus

These are the NERVTAG minutes not sure if there’s much in there (too loud here to concentrate)

khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608470511452

@cathyandclare
sorry, but that is less than helpful. at best: misinformation, at worst: blatant lie.
No reliable or at least 3 separate sources=me no believe (caveman style)

It says in the minutes that they will have more on age distribution 'next week'.

It also say this:

Work is ongoing to evaluate the ability of Lateral Flow Devices to detect VUI-202012/01

Hi - I’ve been following these threads for a while. Sorry, can I just clarify that no one is suggesting that the new strain virus is more serious in children? Just that it is easier for them to catch?

@Piggyinblankets

Dr Zoë Hyde

@DrZoeHyde
·
31m

I’m sceptical of claims the new UK variant is more transmissible.

An alternative theory is the virus is now simply more prevalent in children, who’ve been attending school with insufficient precautionary measures in place. Of course it will explode under those conditions.

December's already seen this but it is a different way to look at the transmission in children. Basically they have been made available to the virus runs the argument.

I'm querying whether this mutation is better at attaching to children's ace receptors (a knowledgeable poster mentioned that the attachment proteins appear to be stronger) and so often causes symptoms in children rather than other official testable symptoms.

As children are more likely to have cold symptoms, it might be missed as they're not tested.

And so has been able to spread at max speed that way. Plus conditions in schools.

So sort of along Zoe Hyde's lines, plus what ever is special about the mutation.

I fully expect it to be several factors tbh.

Just that it is easier for them to catch?

Possibly, so far. Need more data.

I don't think they know if it's more or less virulent (dangerous) but might be better at infecting children now.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@cathyandclare
sorry, but that is less than helpful. at best: misinformation, at worst: blatant lie.
No reliable or at least 3 separate sources=me no believe (caveman style)[/quote]
I agree that unless there's a reliable source we shouldn't put much hope in it but disagree that at best it's misinformation at worst a blatant lie.

It could be true. Unlikely because I think it would be reported, but still possible.

It makes sense when you think about it. The only place we gave it free rein was schools, so it may well have adapted to spread more effectively in younger people.

I struggle with the Zoe Hyde argument unless huge swathes of the country outside of London and the south east completely gave up on education.

The Download data section on the dashboard shows cases by age and shows a hinge 7 day jump in for example London school age groups. But much less so in the non southern parts

MRC Biostatistics Unit at the University of Cambridge have released their latest nowcast and forecast of COVID-19. Their estimate of the number of new daily cases is 91, 000 (95 % CI, 69, 000 to 119, 000).
www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-latest-covid-19-nowcast-and-forecast-by-the-mrc-biostatistics-unit-at-the-university-of-cambridge/

I was in no way saying to was confirmed. I clearly said I had no idea about credentials. it was tittle tattle, and reported as such.

However, the number vaccinated has clearly gone above 50% of 800k, and colleagues are receiving supplies to continue vaccinating this week. This WOULD NOT be allowed by the MHRA if the supplies for the 2nd does were not in hand.

hinge - huge even