Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table
School statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date Link broken?
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
MSAO Map of English cases Link broken?
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
NI Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read://https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Maybe I shouldn't post this as I can't find the link now but I read somewhere that the excess deaths were higher than 1918 (WWI and Spanish flu). Of course the population is much higher so it's not a like for like comparison but a sobering illustration.

Here is a link for ww1 casualties: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_casualties#:~:text=British%20and%20German%20wounded%2C%20Bernafay%20Wood%2C%2019%20July,it%20among%20the%20deadliest%20conflicts%20in%20human%20history.
Coronavirus has killed nothing like so many in UK.

Non-brit here. Could someone explain why brits have this fetish with WW1? I'm sure my kid has learnt about it at least 4 times so far (now y10) and all poems that he learnt apart from 1, were about ww1....
i don't get it.

@TheSunIsStillShining because it was a horrific event in our history with an enormous and long lasting impact, amongst a myriad of other reasons.
I won't derail the thread but as you've noticed that a huge proportion of people don't want to forget it, maybe it would be appropriate to respect that as part of our culture and not describe it in terms of a fetish!

[quote Chaotic45]@TheSunIsStillShining because it was a horrific event in our history with an enormous and long lasting impact, amongst a myriad of other reasons.
I won't derail the thread but as you've noticed that a huge proportion of people don't want to forget it, maybe it would be appropriate to respect that as part of our culture and not describe it in terms of a fetish! [/quote]
But it was more than a hundred years ago! And since then there were many more, equally tragic incidents unfortunately. And many have more direct consequences to our daily lives than ww1.
Ok, let's not derail the thread.

schimmel I believe the point was it has killed more people than died in 1918 in the UK nit in the whole of WWI, which would obviously be a ridiculous statement!

@TheSunIsStillShining

Non-brit here. Could someone explain why brits have this fetish with WW1? I'm sure my kid has learnt about it at least 4 times so far (now y10) and all poems that he learnt apart from 1, were about ww1.... i don't get it.

I'm British (and an ex-academic historian) and I actually think that usually we pay relatively little heed to WWI, it's WWII that people are completely irrationally, nostalgically attached to. WWI is a less comfortable, jingoistic narrative for most people, and the sort of war poetry your child will have been taught is difficult to celebrate, unlike the 'Blitz spirit' legend. But WWI has received a lot of attention due to the centenaries from 1914-1918, and of course the 1918 influenza epidemic has been very much in people's minds this year, which may be why it feels like it's so emphasised to you?

Does anyone know if the natural R number of the new strain is higher? I get that it is more transmissible.

@TheSunIsStillShining - deaths from WW1 were particularly challenging because soldiers were put together from the same local areas; that's how wars had always been fought but with modern weapons it meant some villages lost every one of their men. The horrors of such a protracted war with such high death rate also affected men to a greater extent than had been known in recent history and the long-lasting effects known as shell-shock (PTSD) also affected many families. Those families who came through it had to send their own sons back to fight in WW2, while WW1 soldiers were Home Guard through all the London blitz. When that generation from WW1 and the one after it who lived through WW2 said "never again" and set up Remembrance day, they meant it. They told their families of what happened in war, in prisoner of war camps, on the long March, at home picking bodies out of the rubble (including children). For many of us, that's our own grandparents who we knew; for some it's their parents. It is living memory and it matters, because when we forget we are destined to repeat the past.

Yes, in fact Gove wanted WWI booted out of English and history curriculums because he said the 'narrative' was too anti British and to negative and all 'taught via Blackadder' , whatever he meant by that! He seemed more than happy for the focus on baddie foreigners (ie WW2) to remain. Of course, debate now moved on to decolonisation and 'culture wars'.

Anyway, massively off topic!

I was thinking about my education last night, and it was very backward looking - which is fine, as it is all interesting, but does give a skewed view. So when you come to look at what is going on in your life, you have material from the past to go on. And, although you are taught about the past, it has an overlay of whatever the teacher wants you to get out of it in terms of values, which is inevitably contemporary. Now we are going through a bad time, and our joint education/ culture offers us certain events we have all been exposed to, for us to communally compare it with. And we don't see it as a 'fetish' because it holds us together, we can't see it, like talking about the weather or saying 'please ' all the time. I say 'we' because I am British (English) but I spent my formative years in another culture. I also apologise for this not being 'data ' , and also for mixing two enormous topics into a post that is too short AND too long at the same time. But inter-cultural insight is an important topic for me.

Interesting thoughts @schimmelreiter, there are some real parallels with wartime;

1. Not seeing loved ones for a long time and sometimes unsure if you will see them again
2. Fear for yourself or others or both, as well as respect for heroes (medical teams and scientists rather than fighters this time)
3. Daily changing events that might be positive or negative, where people can get obsessive checking
4. Running out of random items that are suddenly unavailable or rationed. Because of the parallels, some people are able to gain strength from remembering this is transient and every crisis eventually ends; it helps us to collectively look back on a lengthy time of difficulty and sorrow to remind ourselves "all things pass, this is not forever it is just the challenge for our generation as others faced for theirs".

[quote Chaotic45]@TheSunIsStillShining because it was a horrific event in our history with an enormous and long lasting impact, amongst a myriad of other reasons.
I won't derail the thread but as you've noticed that a huge proportion of people don't want to forget it, maybe it would be appropriate to respect that as part of our culture and not describe it in terms of a fetish! [/quote]
As WW1 also set in motion the break-up of every other European empire and the Russian revolution, with the chain reaction that followed through the 1920s and 1930s it has global significance. The consequences were seen in the Balkans as recently as in the 1990s.

@VaTeLaverLesMains

Does anyone know if the natural R number of the new strain is higher? I get that it is more transmissible.

yes it supposed to be effectively 0.4 higher than the old one.

Yes, @Mrex, it is interesting what parallels can be drawn, and goes to show that education serves a great purpose in giving us tools to deal with life. I was trying to explain to @TheSunIsStillShining why the same examples get used all the time, which might seem weird to someone who is not personally connected to the national narrative or whatever you want to call it, and obviously there is more than one perspective/ story within that narrative. I really appreciate all the people whose education and abilities centred around data, because you have helped me understand this pandemic in a way that a brain that stops at concepts such as 'lots' and 'more' when it comes.to numbers cannot do on its own!

mobile.twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1341022130591440896

authorisation expected today for EU

I think they said between 0.4 and 0.92 added onto R rate for new strain

33,364 cases
215 deaths

I don't think any of us know what to do with the figures do we. Either they are high now and might start to come down with the new measures or they are possibly about to explode.

I don't know about anyone else but it all feels very out of control right now. I guess it will be another week or two before we can see where things are going.

Thank you everyone on the perspectives! I'm not berating it by the way, was just curious.

In Hungary there is a cult around 1956. I don't understand that either. I'm sure all countries have their "defining moment" that they overly focus on.
I am more than happy for my kid to learn about ww1/2 or any other historical even obviously, it just feels like such a romanticized perspective that it sometimes hurts my brain.
I'm trying to find a more objective 20th c history book for him, but no luck in either country :( (one that is not uni lectures and such)
On the bright side at least here in history it's not years of studying about how the whole nation has been and is a martyr :) Hungarians are really famous for having that mindset. Annoying. Because it's always someone else's fault. everything.

I am going to be cynical, but we will easily see 50k/day by xmas.

I went on a school trip to Hungary during Communism (on a US Passport..) . We were in Budapest on the National Day. Mental!

"Half a million people have received first dose of vaccine in the UK
More than 500,000 people have received their first dose of the pandemic, Boris Johnson said."

We had 800k doses. The math doesn't add up.
Not surprised....

I see there's a new darker shade of purple brought out on the map. Sadly it's getting worse. Stay home folks and take care.

And could people please keep their children in and not let them out to 'play out with their friends'?

Sorry, feeling a bit existentially despairing when I look out of my Tier 4 window at the play areas...