Only 25 million to be vaccinated in 2021

[Em777]

From the National Audit Office report yesterday:

NHSE&I is currently planning on the assumption that up to 25 million people could be vaccinated against COVID‐19 in England throughout 2021 provided sufficient doses of vaccine are available.

www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Investigation-into-preparations-for-potential-COVID-19-vaccines.pdf

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-less-than-half-of-uk-population-could-be-vaccinated-in-2021-spending-watchdog-says-12162805

Let's hope they do better in 2022 as it's fairly likely it will need to be an annual jab.

There was an interesting More or Less podcast on this. It's not necessarily an issue as once they've vaccinated the most vulnerable few groups, they've got just about everyone who's likely to become seriously ill or die due to the virus.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p090hlp7

Yes, I know a few healthy 40 somethings have died, but percentage-wise it's a very small amount.

@BarbaraofSeville

There was an interesting More or Less podcast on this. It's not necessarily an issue as once they've vaccinated the most vulnerable few groups, they've got just about everyone who's likely to become seriously ill or die due to the virus.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p090hlp7

Yes, I know a few healthy 40 somethings have died, but percentage-wise it's a very small amount.

The problem isn't deaths in the under 60s, it's the hospitalisation rate - thats plenty high enough to bring down the NHS even with the elderly and CEV out of the equation.

This is depressing. Does that mean the risk of long covid for the rest of us, then? Crap.

Actually, that’s likely to be close to vaccinating all adults (over 16s for vaccine purposes) in England who actually want the vaccine.

There are 55m people in England. Under 16s will not be getting the vaccine, which takes off 11m ish.

Then there’s the assumption, in that report, that only 75% will want to take up the vaccine if offered. That takes off another 13m ish people.

Then we are left with 31m. And 25m being vaccinated. So pretty close!

Someone please correct me if I’m wrong!

I think ( may be wrong) but the whole Over 50s, CEV, CV and NHS/ care groups add up to around 20m, so 25m seems to cover the risky people. (And that's not accounting for those that refuse it)

Yes, it’s disappointing considering the ONS also came out with this this morning:

Around one in five people with coronavirus may go on to suffer long Covid, new data from the Office for National Statistics suggests.

As PA Media reports, for the first time the ONS has published figures examining long Covid, finding that a fifth of people have symptoms for five weeks or more while around one in 10 are affected for 12 weeks or more.

www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/dec/16/brexit-updates-johnson-uk-eu-agreement-deal-live

@FuzzyPuffling

I think ( may be wrong) but the whole Over 50s, CEV, CV and NHS/ care groups add up to around 20m, so 25m seems to cover the risky people. (And that's not accounting for those that refuse it)

I think it's CEV, over 60s, NHS and carers that are 20 million.

@LeFluffyPants

Actually, that’s likely to be close to vaccinating all adults (over 16s for vaccine purposes) in England who actually want the vaccine.

There are 55m people in England. Under 16s will not be getting the vaccine, which takes off 11m ish.

Then there’s the assumption, in that report, that only 75% will want to take up the vaccine if offered. That takes off another 13m ish people.

Then we are left with 31m. And 25m being vaccinated. So pretty close!

Someone please correct me if I’m wrong!

Good point on the 75%. I wonder if that’s an understatement, though.

Thing is, even if you don't end up in hospital or get long covid, it can be just a nasty thing to get. For me it was short but it was awful. I really don't want a fresh dose every year.

The UK is such a joke. We should be able to aim for more than this! The US and other European countries are aiming to offer vaccines to the wider population by the summer of 2021 so why can't we? Their plans may slip but at least they are aiming for that but over here 'oh no, not until 2022, it's too difficult'.

I hope that we can also pay for it ourselves !!!

At our convenience in the pharmacies (at some point). I'm 50's, overweight but healthy -ish. I happily pay for my flu vaccine every year as I can't risk getting sick (self employed)

Could this be based on the fact that so far only 1 vaccine had been approved and we only have enough doses ordered for 20 odd million people?

If not then that's absolute bollocks.

The vaccines dont have to be given by NHS staff, they could use pharmacists, the army etc

They were talking about training vets a while ago.

Talk about an anti climax.

@Biscoff2020

The UK is such a joke. We should be able to aim for more than this! The US and other European countries are aiming to offer vaccines to the wider population by the summer of 2021 so why can't we? Their plans may slip but at least they are aiming for that but over here 'oh no, not until 2022, it's too difficult'.

The European countries may have such plans. But at the moment none of the vaccines have been approved for use in the EU. They have a meeting scheduled for next week, with another scheduled for 29 Dec if next weeks meeting still doesn’t result in approval. So their plans need to be taken with a pinch of salt for the moment until their programme is actually up and running

Please don't let that mean longer before we can get back to normal, I can't bear it..

Vaccinating the most vulnerable 2%, the over 85s, in the country will reduce the mortality rate by 40%

Vaccinating the most vulnerable 9%, the over 75s, reduces the mortality rate by 71%

Vaccinating 19%, those over 65, will reduce the mortality rate by 86%.

I certainly dont think the uk is a joke This vaccination us being rolled out and organised by the NHS
If the Oxford vaccine is approved surely this will increase the rate at which vaccines can be administered as it can be handled much easier
The over 80s are more difficult to organise surely as they go down into the younger age groups they can set up mass vaccination centres
My daughter who injects herself four times a day commented it's not rocket science pass me the vaccine and I will do it myself

And all those have been vaccinated it's time vaccinate them again to boost immunity.

Oh :( Im cv and 40s but have a collection of ill health problems and really sacred Inwont survive it.

If life goes back to normal before the cv are vacinated we will be even more at risk than ever 😔. Im scared. I had really had a good couple of weeks thinking I only had to make it to the vaccine.

@secretlyhappy

And all those have been vaccinated it's time vaccinate them again to boost immunity.

We don't know that.

@RememberSelfCompassion

Oh :( Im cv and 40s but have a collection of ill health problems and really sacred Inwont survive it.

If life goes back to normal before the cv are vacinated we will be even more at risk than ever 😔. Im scared. I had really had a good couple of weeks thinking I only had to make it to the vaccine.

It is concerning but my daughter will get it before me and she is in her early 30s I am 62

Yes, I'm extremely clinically vulnerable and I will jump the age queue and be immunised in group 4.

It will probably take a couple of years to get everyone vaccinated (by which time, the early recipients may need boosters too).
I read somewhere that there are 1,000 vaccination centres. If each centre can process 500 vaccinations a day, for 5 days a week, they could in theory deliver 130m doses in 52 weeks, which is enough for 65m people to be vaccinated. That assumes that there will be a constant supply of vaccine and no supply delays, which is of course highly unlikely. So, chances are it will take closer to 2 years.

Having said that, it's likely that about 20% will refuse the vaccine. If we can vaccinate the willing 80%, that should provide enough immunity in the population to keep Covid at bay.

@LaurieFairyCake

I hope that we can also pay for it ourselves !!!

At our convenience in the pharmacies (at some point). I'm 50's, overweight but healthy -ish. I happily pay for my flu vaccine every year as I can't risk getting sick (self employed)

I do too, once the vulnerable have been vaccinated of course. But as you're in your 50s, you'd be in the priority group anyway.

@kittensarecute

Did you watch the panorama program this week on the Oxford vaccine? If not, try and watch it. It’s really reassuring. The top science bods are speaking about the virus and the vaccine.

I’d rather take their opinion as fact rather than the posters on a parenting forum. Remember that some posters on here are revelling in other peoples misery and fear.