Only 25 million to be vaccinated in 2021

[Em777]

From the National Audit Office report yesterday:

NHSE&I is currently planning on the assumption that up to 25 million people could be vaccinated against COVID‐19 in England throughout 2021 provided sufficient doses of vaccine are available.

www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Investigation-into-preparations-for-potential-COVID-19-vaccines.pdf

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-less-than-half-of-uk-population-could-be-vaccinated-in-2021-spending-watchdog-says-12162805

I have to admit I felt devastated about this when I read this morning although I've already been hearing similar elsewhere...

I'm so far down the queue I'm not even in the queue (38, no known health issues). I'm not scared of dying as such but as I'm self-employed and have no family, I don't know how I would cope if I got seriously ill or got the long version. Would happily pay for my vaccine of course if that was an option and I'm not expecting to get ahead of the most vulnerable groups... just feel completely left behind by this whole covid situation in general with zero financial support either, and this is like the final bit that has just shattered any hope I had left.

[quote DobbyTheHouseElk]@kittensarecute

Did you watch the panorama program this week on the Oxford vaccine? If not, try and watch it. It’s really reassuring. The top science bods are speaking about the virus and the vaccine.

I’d rather take their opinion as fact rather than the posters on a parenting forum. Remember that some posters on here are revelling in other peoples misery and fear.[/quote]
Thank you, I will try and see it.

Jesus, how ungrateful and negative. “The UK is a joke”. The NHS is rolling out this vaccination program and as someone pointed out above, within the year it will cover nearly everyone it has to.

In what way is that “a joke” to you? Get a grip and stop moaning. There’s so much misery in the world at the moment, without you inventing new problems to get wound up about.

You could get post viral complications after any virus like the flu or certainly ongoing complications after an ICU visit. It’s the nature of the beast. The 1 in 5 people getting long Covid are not all having it after 12 weeks and of those who are, they are unlikely to be people who had minor symptoms. Which anyone not entitled to the vaccine are thankfully likely to experience.

I'm so far down the queue I'm not even in the queue (38, no known health issues). I'm not scared of dying as such but as I'm self-employed and have no family, I don't know how I would cope if I got seriously ill or got the long version.

That’s just it though isn’t it, you’re really, really, really unlikely to. That’s why you’re not a priority for the vaccine.

By getting in your car and generally living your life each day you’re taking greater risks. It’s a scary time but try and see this vaccine as good news which will get us out of this situation, not something which has passed you by.

It will not be available privately until the vulnerable people around the world have had it. Rightly so.

Surely there are some of the 67 million brits we just dont need
To do? The under 20s, the under 30s etc if the have no underlying conditions. If we do the most vulnerable then we have the ICU beds to deal with the younger outlayers.

If think we need to be realistic.you cant magic up 67 mill doses and people to administer that asap.

Ne er can you do much who dont want to have it. It just is what it is.

Between the tin foil hatters and the worried well it's really hard to get a guage the general level of concern about the virus and the vaccine. The good news is that once the bulk of the vulnerable are immunised we can see a return to a normal functioning health service (such as it is and will be) where those with non covid illnesses can be treated as they would have been in 2019 and the backlog of those with health issues waiting in the pipeline can be helped.

It's in everyone's best interests to get the most vulnerable vaccinated. That is what this year has been for.

The UK government needs to get its act together...

Vaccinations will likely need to be repeated every year as well even if it is just a 'booster jab'.

Surely there are some of the 67 million brits we just dont need
To do?

That was a cliff hanger of a gap in that sentence. I thought that was going in a completely different direction 😂

@RememberSelfCompassion

Oh :( Im cv and 40s but have a collection of ill health problems and really sacred Inwont survive it.

If life goes back to normal before the cv are vacinated we will be even more at risk than ever 😔. Im scared. I had really had a good couple of weeks thinking I only had to make it to the vaccine.

Those under 65 with long term conditions are the last group to be vaccinated in Phase 1.

• those aged over 80 years
• those aged over 75 years
• those aged over 70 years
• adults on the NHS shielded patient list
• those aged over 65 years
• adults under 65 years with long term conditions (see conditions below)

Clinical conditions list:

• a blood cancer (such as leukaemia, lymphoma or myeloma)
• diabetes
• dementia
• a heart problem
• a chest complaint or breathing difficulties, including bronchitis, emphysema or severe asthma
• a kidney disease
• a liver disease
• lowered immunity due to disease or treatment (such as HIV infection, steroid medication, chemotherapy or radiotherapy)
• rheumatoid arthritis, lupus or psoriasis
• have had an organ transplant
• had a stroke or a transient ischaemic attack (TIA)
• a neurological or muscle wasting condition
• a severe or profound learning disability
• a problem with your spleen, example sickle cell disease, or you have had your spleen removed
• are seriously overweight (BMI of 40 and above)
• are severely mentally ill

Once the Oxford vaccine is approved there will be lots of vaccines available. They have already made them and are ready to go.

@HMSBeagle
If think we need to be realistic.you cant magic up 67 mill doses and people to administer that asap.

It's actually twice as many million doses as people, because everyone has to have two jabs about a month apart.

But 52m as adult population, it’s not rolling out to DC in the foreseeable

And all blood cancers mean the person is on the shielding list (CEV, not CV) and some of the others on that list look wrong too. Where was it published?

@TibetanTerrier
There is so much wrong with this list in the first place. IT is by far not complete and a lot of conditions are left off. After 10 months, yes I would expect to be able to find an almost full, comprehensive list of conditions!

even though I am CV and have letter from GP I can't find my condition anywhere in any list. Meaning that I am now classed as almost the lowest priority. And yest I have an autoimmune condition where my gut cells are actively destroying my body from within. Long covid is about misdirected autoimmune response. I know of at least 2 conditions besides mine that are by definition this in themselves and getting covid will surely not help. But we are still the lowest group.
My H jokingly said that I should go mad (display sever MH issues) and gain a lot of weight to qualify quicker.
(I have just lost about 5 kg, and my weight again starts with a 4, although not on purpose...)

I don't have time to read the full report. I have read in various places that uptake is expected to be around 75%. Children, people who are pregnant and breastfeeding and people with severe allergies are contraindicated from receiving. So of the eligible remaining pool, remove the 25% who won't take the vaccine, that probably leaves around 31 million people? I know this is very crude calculating but perhaps this isn't the big issue people fear it is. Things are changing on a daily basis so I expect that report is out of date already anyway!

Great minds! This is exactly the same rough calculation that I got to in my post above - about 31m. And 25m will cover the vast majority of that - plus in the report itself it even said that this is all subject to change as more developments happen.

I really agree - this is not a thing for people to panic about.

Of all the things the UK has fucked up on during this pandemic, I really don't think its vaccination programme is one of them, so far anyway... (really hope I don't live to regret saying that)!

(That was for PrivateD00r, no idea why I can't figure out how to reply to people's messages - sorry)

What's the latest on the Nightingale hospitals? Could they be used as vaccination centres, staffed by whoever can be trained up? Presumably due to them being constructed to treat Covid they are well suited to social distancing, cleanliness, access etc.

I'm presuming given people are waiting in ambulances at hospitals that the Nightingales aren't being used due to lack of nursing staff, rather than because the NHS has forgotten they're there.

If each centre can process 500 vaccinations a day, for 5 days a week

Many of the centres will be able to vaccinate more than that when in full swing. They are large with multiple vaccination stations. And they are expected to operate every day.

I'm presuming given people are waiting in ambulances at hospitals that the Nightingales aren't being used due to lack of nursing staff, rather than because the NHS has forgotten they're there.

Yes, and once mass vaccination starts in earnest I would think some of them will be used.

@LeFluffyPants

Great minds! This is exactly the same rough calculation that I got to in my post above - about 31m. And 25m will cover the vast majority of that - plus in the report itself it even said that this is all subject to change as more developments happen.

I really agree - this is not a thing for people to panic about.

Of all the things the UK has fucked up on during this pandemic, I really don't think its vaccination programme is one of them, so far anyway... (really hope I don't live to regret saying that)!

Does the 25 million does for 2021 also include those being vaccinated during December? As that would reduce the number needed further if not.

Morally we can't vaccinate more than that in the UK until the rest of the world's vulnerable have had access to the vaccines. It wouldn't be fair if we took it all for ourselves. That doesn't mean we can't go back to normal before then though, they've already said once our vulnerable have been vaccinated we will be going back to normal as it will go to personal responsibility rather than national restrictions. All of us under 50 with no serious underlying conditions will have to just get on with it like we do with every other illness (I include myself in that). There's no reason for us to be restricted after that.

They're not planning on vaccinating children though are they? So how many children are there in the country?

Personally I'm happy to wait and live my life as normal. 30 years old and no health issues. I bet many young people will be happy to take the risk too.

@FourTeaFallOut

Vaccinating the most vulnerable 2%, the over 85s, in the country will reduce the mortality rate by 40%

Vaccinating the most vulnerable 9%, the over 75s, reduces the mortality rate by 71%

Vaccinating 19%, those over 65, will reduce the mortality rate by 86%.

Thanks for this makes sense

[quote DobbyTheHouseElk]@kittensarecute

Did you watch the panorama program this week on the Oxford vaccine? If not, try and watch it. It’s really reassuring. The top science bods are speaking about the virus and the vaccine.

I’d rather take their opinion as fact rather than the posters on a parenting forum. Remember that some posters on here are revelling in other peoples misery and fear.[/quote]
So true

@Biscoff2020

The UK is such a joke. We should be able to aim for more than this! The US and other European countries are aiming to offer vaccines to the wider population by the summer of 2021 so why can't we? Their plans may slip but at least they are aiming for that but over here 'oh no, not until 2022, it's too difficult'.

Could you have done better

@iVampire

But 52m as adult population, it’s not rolling out to DC in the foreseeable

And all blood cancers mean the person is on the shielding list (CEV, not CV) and some of the others on that list look wrong too. Where was it published?

Gov.uk