Only 25 million to be vaccinated in 2021

[Em777]

From the National Audit Office report yesterday:

NHSE&I is currently planning on the assumption that up to 25 million people could be vaccinated against COVID‐19 in England throughout 2021 provided sufficient doses of vaccine are available.

www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Investigation-into-preparations-for-potential-COVID-19-vaccines.pdf

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-less-than-half-of-uk-population-could-be-vaccinated-in-2021-spending-watchdog-says-12162805

@Biscoff2020

The UK is such a joke. We should be able to aim for more than this! The US and other European countries are aiming to offer vaccines to the wider population by the summer of 2021 so why can't we? Their plans may slip but at least they are aiming for that but over here 'oh no, not until 2022, it's too difficult'.

Hang on haven't we already started vaccinating where other countries haven't? Also we have a larger population than most of Europe (Germany higher) so its bound to take us longer than other countries with fewer people

@CoronaIsWatching

I don't think we will get back to normal for years, if ever. It really is similar to a world war in many ways.

🙄

@3littlewords
Italy/france also almost the same.

From a few hours ago:

"France will receive around 1.16m Covid-19 vaccine doses by year end, prime minister Jean Castex said, ...."
Not much more than 800k, but still... more. and population is 3m less.

@TheSunIsStillShining probably best to leave the comparisons until the end of next year when vaccinations have actually happened than speculate the downfalls before they happen.
Our government have spouted out lots of predictions this past year, as have probably most governments in the world, that have come to nothing, its the nature of politics over promise and under deliver

I don't think we will get back to normal for years, if ever. It really is similar to a world war in many ways.

It’s going to take years to fully recover from the economic impact, I agree.

In terms of the ability to mix with who we want, hold mass events, festivals.... as has already been said, once the 25 million have been vaccinated, most of the deaths and hospitalisations will be gone.

I think it would then be difficult to maintain the ban on mixing, even though the risk of long Covid would remain for those not vaccinated. That could be up to 20% of people who get infected, according to the NAO.

However, there are plenty of younger people, including mners who are willing to dismiss that risk in their own case and want to get their lives back. I think the government will eventually let them. There would be a revolution if they don’t, if some posters on here are to be believed.

In a sense, though, we will not be going back to ‘normal’ as it was before, because people have learned new ways of doing things and not all of them will want to go back. I think there will be less commuting, more videoconferencing and more wfh, even if not full time.

@Em777 only 25 million? Are you serious?

That’s a hell of a lot of people!

The UK is such a joke.

Oh sod off - we’re the first country in the WORLD to start vaccinating our population. Honestly, some people are never fecking happy!

Any 5 year old could have done better.

[quote Dongdingdong]@Em777 only 25 million? Are you serious?

That’s a hell of a lot of people![/quote]
It is indeed. But it’s a long way from what Hancock and Co were promising a month ago. Remember “working age people to get the vaccine by summer”?

The point of this thread is not in any way to denigrate the efforts of the NHS. Just to point out the realistic assessment of capacity offered to the NAO by the NHS.

@80sMum
You speak like covid for most people is a death sentence

It actually isn’t you know

Surely that was written based on us having just one vaccine approved , if the oxford vaccine is approved then surely more will be covered as storage and logistically its easier
Plus as more and more get vaccinated we all get some benefit as such as lower rates mean less spread generally
Other eu countries have't even started vaccinating yet and i believe we had orders in for several vaccines

@Dongdingdong

The UK is such a joke.

Oh sod off - we’re the first country in the WORLD to start vaccinating our population. Honestly, some people are never fecking happy!

It's good that we have started vaccinating people.

We still however have a terrible death toll from the first wave and did very badly compared to other countries.

We are looking likely to do badly in the next month or 2 as well, as we didn't learn the lessons from before.

I don't think it's a joke at all. I think it's a tragedy. And I am very unhappy about how Boris and co are managing this.

Not much more than 800k, but still... more. and population is 3m less

The size of the population won’t be the key thing. It’ll be the size of the first shipment that Pfizer sent.

We have 40m doses on order and they are arriving in tranches, with 800,000 here. France has clearly received more and expects to use it faster. Much faster - has EMA concluded it’s authorisation?

France expects delivery of 1.16 million by the end of the year.

We have had delivery of 800k and expect delivery of several million more during December.

The expected stuff is not guaranteed, but it doesn't seem like Europe is ahead of us on this.

We are looking likely to do badly in the next month or 2 as well, as we didn't learn the lessons from before.

I don't think it's clear. The countries that have done obviously better than us are all in SE Asia. You have to take into account population density (or really "lived density") to do a proper comparison. E.g. Germany has a very low lived density and Spain has a very high lived density.

So in terms of what we could have done better, the only real question is could we have been more like a SE Asian country?

The UK is expecting delivery of more in a December too. But we can actually use it, we’ve already had over 100,000 vaccinated. The EU hasn’t even approved the vaccine yet.

ONLY 21 million? That is a huge vaccination programme. I don't think any vaccination programme of this size has been done before. It is a huge undertaking. Even if you allocate 5 mins per dose (this doesn't take into account the 15 minute you have to sit for after) that is something like 1.6 million hours worth of time. Not factoring in space, logistics, appointment management etc.

I think 21 million is pretty darn good! We don’t need to vaccinate the whole population. I don’t actually think they’re necessarily going to aim for herd immunity - just vaccinate the most vulnerable groups (like with flu) and that will reduce fatalities and pressure on the NHS.

That’s over 2 million people a month (4million vaccines as it needs to be done twice) Sounds pretty impressive to me. I think sadly some people had unrealistic expectations as to what would be logistically possible.

@SomewhereEast

Given many developing countries may be very lucky to manage to vaccinate even their HCPs and most vulnerable citizens in 2021, I don't think healthy 40yo Brits like me can complain. I honestly wish we would prioritise the high risk everywhere

Agreed. People in here clambering for the vaccine so they can get back to ‘normal’ are forgetting that millions of vulnerable and elderly people in other countries won’t have access to the vaccine at all. I’m 36 and generally healthy. Happy to forego a vaccine so that the vulnerable and elderly in developing countries can be vaccinated.

But we can actually use it, we’ve already had over 100,000 vaccinated

Where did get the 100,000 figure?

And people talking about what the US and EU ‘aim’ to do... well they can aim for whatever they like. It doesn’t mean it will happen. Boris ‘aimed’ to have us back to normal by this Christmas.
No other European countries even have a vaccine approved yet.

@notevenat20

But we can actually use it, we’ve already had over 100,000 vaccinated

Where did get the 100,000 figure?

It was all over the press yesterday. 137,000 in the U.K. 100,000 in England.

Oh sod off - we’re the first country in the WORLD to start vaccinating our population. Honestly, some people are never fecking happy!

Ain't that the truth (on MN).