Why do people seem so certain that restrictions will go on and on

[HallFloor]

Once we've got all the over 80s vaccinated, surely the death rate will be so low that there could be no possible justification to continue with the restrictions?

Yes, I know some unfortunate people will still suffer but the vast majority of deaths have been in the over 80s. There have and always will be viruses that are dangerous to some, we don't close everything down.

The majority of deaths might be in over 80s. There's a large number of hospitalisations and admissions to ICU in many more groups than that as well as in people who aren't in higher risk groups (under 50, no underlying conditions). It's going to be no good if we stop people dying from Covid but end up dying because there are no ICU beds for covid patients who need it.

Have you seen what's happening in parts of the US at the moment? That's not entirely caused just by people over 80.

I’m sure it was on the news that masks will still need to be worn for at least the next 12 months 😩

I work in theatres which are doing a rotation in icu. When I was last in work, there was a decent amount of patients in there in their 50s with no underlying issues. It’s not just your elderly who’re coming off badly.

I think we'll need to have vaccinated at least to priority 4 before seeing any easing, and priority 6 before widespread relaxation

By then, we might also know is sterilising immunity is created, and have a better idea on duration

Because we were told in march that this would be a two week lockdown. Then it would all be good when there was a vaccination. Now theres a vaccination but even the vaccinated still need to wear a mask

This is nothing to do with a virus anymore

It's going to be no good if we stop people dying from Covid but end up dying because there are no ICU beds for covid patients who need it.

No idea what that means? The majority of people at greater risk of death from Covid are 80+ And no ICU 's are not being overwhelmed by people of all ages. The US average age of death from Covid is 75, so lower than we have seen but not dramatically so. People really do need to stop scaremongering.

I’m sure it was on the news that masks will still need to be worn for at least the next 12 months

I won’t be wearing one past the summer. Vallance can screw himself with that shite.

Once the vaccine has been rolled out to vulnerable groups I think all mandatory restrictions should stop. If people who don’t want the vaccine want to stay at home, SD or wear masks they can do, I won’t be. I’ll have done my bit by having the vaccine. Once the NHS is not at risk of being overwhelmed restrictions aren’t justified, we don’t have them to stop anyone getting any other form of infectious illness.

Because a huge, huge number of people vastly overestimate their own personal risk from Covid - largely due to being deliberately encouraged to do so to gain compliance with restrictions - and so persuading them that allowing it to circulate at a manageable rate isn't just state murder will be a long, hard slog. Every second 30 year old with asthma on MN 'knows' that they would end up in an ICU if they caught it...

Now theres a vaccination but even the vaccinated still need to wear a mask

Until we know if the vaccine confers sterilising immunity, it would be highly unwise to say it was OK to abandon masks. That's everything to do with the virus, and what happens when it meets an immunised person

I think over time compliance will drop, less people will wear masks, more people will refuse to be kept away from friends and family and so on

It's not just about the death rate now though is it, more and more people are suffering from long Covid. These are the people that work in society, we need to limit the spread so services can keep running.

www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-12-08/california-icu-beds-fill-up-coronavirus-cases

www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/09/us/covid-hospitals-icu-capacity.html

calmatters.org/health/coronavirus/2020/12/many-california-icus-full/?

It absolutely isn't scaremongering. The US are quickly running out of ICU beds in some areas. And that includes some of the excess capacity they already created.

The median age of ICU admission with Covid in the UK is 60. About 25% are in their 50s. Most of those don't have any particularly 'serious' underlying conditions that would have put them there if Covid didn't exist.

If you think that just vaccinating over 80s is going to solve the issue of ICU capacity and mean that restrictions can end, you don't have a very good grasp of the situation and have your head firmly buried in the sand.

Some people suffer from long term post viral effects for many of the viruses that we do let circulate freely.

ICUs aren't full of young people without underlying conditions, they're really not.

There are many people very ill in hospital who are under 80. Most of those in ICU will be under 80. Hospitals would be overwhelmed if Covid was allowed to spread freely among the under 80s and without hospital treatment man6 more people would die.

Don't forget that the NHS is barely functioning at the moment with ever increasing waiting lists, clinics running at very low numbers of patients due to social distancing, NHS staff off isolating or with covid, etc.

It's not just about covid deaths and not just about the most vulnerable to covid. Entire wards have been closed due to so many staff off with covid (or isolating). We need to get most NHS staff vaccinated so that they're not going to be going off sick with covid or having to isolate because of close contact with positive covids.

Until most NHS staff are vaccinated and they can make a start on clearing the backlog, the last thing the NHS needs is people being admitted with covid who are unlikely to die, but who still need medical intervention, thus taking up beds etc.

So no, life can't go back to normal when the most vulnerable are vaccinated - that's just the start. Until large numbers of the younger/working population are vaccinated, the NHS can't get back to normal. Likewise with other workplaces, schools, universities, etc - they can't be stop/go due to a steady stream of staff going off sick with covid.

We'll still need precautions/restrictions until the numbers of infections/deaths gets down to a low enough level and stays down at that level. Restrictions will be lifted as and when infection/death rates are low enough, regardless of who has been vaccinated.

@RayOfSunshine2013

Because we were told in march that this would be a two week lockdown. Then it would all be good when there was a vaccination. Now theres a vaccination but even the vaccinated still need to wear a mask

This is nothing to do with a virus anymore

What is it about? Why would the government want us to keep wearing masks? What are the advantages?

@3littlewords

I think over time compliance will drop, less people will wear masks, more people will refuse to be kept away from friends and family and so on

Yes, hence why the Govt will probably continue to keep higher risk places closed, such as pubs, restaurants, sports stadia, theatres, etc. If covid infection rates don't come down because people aren't taking precautions, then we can't afford to let the higher risk places re-open to make the infection rates even higher.

In his last press conference Jonathan Van-Tam was asked what % of the population would have to be vaccinated before restrictions could be lifted. He did um and ah a bit but then said once the over 65s and those with underlying health conditions had been vaccinated, that basically covered 99.9% of covid deaths so he anticipated restrictions being lifted at that time. (He then made the slightly ill advised comment about masks being worn for a further 12 months, but later clarified he felt that people would do that out of personal choice, it wouldn't be government imposed.)

@Kazzyhoward at the same time the government can't afford to keep subsidising these businesses nor can if afford to lose the much needed money into the economy that the hospitality sector provides thus paying towards our public services

ICUs aren't full of young people without underlying conditions, they're really not.

What's your definition of young? I'm not talking 20 year olds here. We're talking 50-80 year olds. You mentioned releasing restrictions after vaccinating over 80s in your post. What are you going to do with the 50-80 year olds. Tell them it's tough luck there's no ICU beds for them but at least we vaccinated the 80+ year olds and stopped them from dying?

@Coldwinterahead1

I’m sure it was on the news that masks will still need to be worn for at least the next 12 months 😩

Certain media outlets love the drama. There has been absolutely no official pronouncement of the sort. Nobody, not even the most renowned experts, know what life will be like a year from now, even if they pretend that they do.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

ICUs aren't full of young people without underlying conditions, they're really not.

What's your definition of young? I'm not talking 20 year olds here. We're talking 50-80 year olds. You mentioned releasing restrictions after vaccinating over 80s in your post. What are you going to do with the 50-80 year olds. Tell them it's tough luck there's no ICU beds for them but at least we vaccinated the 80+ year olds and stopped them from dying?

By the time that happens we'll be coming into summer, which should see a natural fall in rates anyway, and with the most vulnerable vaccinated it's unlikely there'll be a huge lack of ICU beds for all these otherwise healthy 50 year olds getting seriously ill with Covid. Lockdowns aren't supposed to mean nobody gets sick with Covid ever. If people feel they are still at risk, they can continue to take precautions, but the whole society and economy cannot be put on hold indefinitely.

@Hardbackwriter

Because a huge, huge number of people vastly overestimate their own personal risk from Covid - largely due to being deliberately encouraged to do so to gain compliance with restrictions - and so persuading them that allowing it to circulate at a manageable rate isn't just state murder will be a long, hard slog. Every second 30 year old with asthma on MN 'knows' that they would end up in an ICU if they caught it...

It seems the opposite to me. Most people underestimate their risk.

@RayOfSunshine2013

Because we were told in march that this would be a two week lockdown. Then it would all be good when there was a vaccination. Now theres a vaccination but even the vaccinated still need to wear a mask

This is nothing to do with a virus anymore

None of that is true at all

The real answer is nobody really knows when the restrictions will end. because we don't know if the vaccines stop transmission.

And I agree with pp who said it's over 50s who are at risk, not just over 80s. Death is not the only bad outcome of being seriously ill.

The government have said they intend to have the over 50s and priority groups vaccinated by Easter, but we don't know if that will happen.