Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

I am very happy that R seems to be approx 0.71 now but how long can it last once we revert to tiers?

Thanks for new thread.
Yes, R will rise at the end of Lockdown, and especially over the ChristRonaMas break, the hope is that it won't rise too far above 1 and not for long enough to kill too many people.

Can anyone explain what the rebel Conservative MPs are suggesting instead please? And what Kier Starmer is suggesting instead please? I can't find anything.

The R really isn't 0.71.

I keep seeing debate over R

Is it because 30% reduction doesn’t necessarily covert to 0.71?

@MRex

Can anyone explain what the rebel Conservative MPs are suggesting instead please? And what Kier Starmer is suggesting instead please? I can't find anything.

Would like to know this too

Labour are abstaining because they say they will only support the legislation if there is more support for affected hospitality businesses in tiers 2 and 3. They aren't fundamentally opposed to the tiers, hence why the abstention rather than voting against.

It's just not the published number marsha. The lowest end of estimate is higher than this. In some regions R could be as low as 0.71. It's great that it is nudging below 1 but I don't think we should get over excited.

Yes there are two different reasons. Labour support the need for continued restrictions but feel that the Government have wasted this time to bring in ecomonic support and improve track and trace.

Some Conservative rebels will be doing so because their constituency has been placed in a tier 3 area when its case rate is low (see parts of Kent etc) and object to the way it has been implemented.

Some are fairly libertarian and disagree with the idea that we should be forced into these restrictions without the proper data to back it up

The 0.71 R is an estimate from Imperial College. It's not official, but a very educated guess.

And at this point it's absolutely worthless -imo- to rejoice over R or anything as all this will be wiped out by xmas shopping spree and stupid mixing.

.

The draft legislation was published yesterday

www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1374/contents/made

There has been at least one concession that I can see in tier 3 - ice rinks allowed to open for under 18 lessons and elite/professional - been recognised as a sport and not just a leisure activity which follows a campaign by iceskating uk - great news for our local area and for my friends who have children skating at a very high level (for GB)

Also confirms which outdoor venues tier 3 can mix in - public places, outdoor sports grounds, botanical gardens, gardens of stately homes/castles etc - not funfairs or fairgrounds.

Thanks @Quartz2208 and @NuttyinNotts, useful to know.

@NuttyinNotts

Labour are abstaining because they say they will only support the legislation if there is more support for affected hospitality businesses in tiers 2 and 3. They aren't fundamentally opposed to the tiers, hence why the abstention rather than voting against.

Are the numbers still there without Labour?

I assume so otherwise we’d be facing no restrictions at midnight

And at this point it's absolutely worthless -imo- to rejoice over R or anything as all this will be wiped out by xmas shopping spree and stupid mixing.

It's also likely that when/if vaccinations start R will not go down much but the IFR will. At least until they start vaccinating people under 65 which might not be for months. We may not care about R so much if people aren't dying of covid.

Think there are about 550 MPs who can vote on this (as don’t think devolved nation MPs can)
Labour’s 200 votes won’t be counted if they abstain so that leaves 350.
Press reports are for between 70 and 100 conservatives to vote against so that leaves at least 250 voting for - so should pass easily

Devolved MPs can vote, it's known as the West Lothian question. They usually wouldn't, and some might say shouldn't be allowed to, vote on England-only matters.

Ah right - they didn’t vote in the 4th November vote so I assume they weren’t allowed to.

Except that Westminster is a UK parliament and sometimes England only matters, actually have ramifications for the other nations....ah the West Lothian question...

Ceeveebee being a mother of a skater and a skater myself, I'm delighted that skating is now being recognised as a sport ( Winter Olympics ) but it's still brutal for ice rink owners. Just training, without public sessions won't bring in enough revenue to pay the electric bill to keep the ice. My local skating rink isn't opening for the foreseeable future. The curling rink laid their ice and then had to shut, due to the Scottish rules around adult group sport indoors.

Waiting to see the Scottish figures today. Yesterday's were 369, but were incomplete due to a data processing issue.

Yes agree, they are hugely expensive to run.
The very frustrating thing is that the local indoor ski place has been allowed to stay open not just for lessons but to the general public too

Our local rink closed due to lack of money in the summer.

13430
and 603

We may not care about R so much if people aren't dying of covid

Given that the restrictions cause significant harm, we have to not care if people aren't dying of covid, just because the restrictions that lockdown bring (lack of exercise, over-eating, poverty, mental health) have much longer timescales on deaths doesn't mean that the harm isn't happening.

Unfortunately we don't have data on how many people have managed to replace their day-to-day moving with exercise after becoming more home bound, and how many have managed to reduce their calorie intake to make up for the 15-20% less they'll typically burn, we really need it though to find out the harm that it's causing.

All metrics are there so we can deal with hospitalisation. Once that pressure goes via vaccine I doubt we will talk about R.

Plus restrictions will go.