Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

Remarks about failure extremely unfair - agree JVT

Press are so ridiculous with their attacks,

JVT not taking prisoners at the press conference.

That was on not doing care homes as JCVI are watching out for complex distribution factors

So irritating!

@boys3

JVT not taking prisoners at the press conference.

Yep and rightly so.

I feel the same and I haven’t been involved

People are so bloody picky and ungrateful

Yes I cheered at JVT saying that. What the heck are they supposed to do? They’re not deliberately overlooking care homes, it’s not their fault the one that’s hard to distribute was ready first.

Will take out 99% of covid deaths. Bravo

Is JVT just inadvertently describing a typical school environment?

He has done that before.

And yes, yes he is. But no journalist will point this out.

Exactly @Piggywaspushed, this is the way that information is given and where we find out what we should and should not be doing. It's rubbish not to be able to watch.

But DH and I are usually still at work (although I'm finished today). It kind of makes you feel forgotten and then you have to catch up via the news which very often gets things a bit wrong especially immediately after each conference.

Testing numbers updated on the dashboard. 28965 lateral flow tests yesterday, so very similar to Monday’s 29668

Does anyone know why the number of lateral flow tests is so low? There are around 2.8 million students in the UK. I realise they're not going to test all of them, but the impression given was that the majority would be offered two tests each, with the second one being before 9 December, which is only a week away. So current numbers (which include all lateral tests, not just students) would suggest they're doing less that 1% of students per day. That's not going to get through 5% of them having 2 tests each unless they seriously ramp it up steeply. Or is it possible the unis are not (yet) reporting the number of tests they do?

(MAP not mask)

On London: by my very rough reckoning, 14 boroughs are above the UK average rate and a couple of these are increasing. Obviously it’s only one of the criteria but it does worry me that this will not be reviewed for another 2 weeks.

Obviously it’s only one of the criteria but it does worry me that this will not be reviewed for another 2 weeks.

Cases will continue falling over next 7-10 days (R for London is under 1) so there will be little point in introducing extra restrictions while the whole city (rather than a handful of boroughs) is on the downward trajectory.

In theory, in 2 weeks we should see how effective Tier 2 restrictions are at keeping infections under control. From the North West experience we know they could work but everything depends on the level of compliance. From what I am seeing, it is not particularly high in London. What really matters is not how many people wear masks in supermarkets. It is all about household mixing and, based on what I am seeing, more and more people are becoming more and more willing to bend (and eventually break) the "rules".

I do believe London is benefitting from a meaningful level of "acquired immunity" going back to the first wave. The big question is whether it will be sufficient to flip R from - say - 1.1. to 0.9 under Tier 2 restrictions with an inconsistent degree of compliance.

In theory, in 2 weeks we should see how effective Tier 2 restrictions are at keeping infections under control. They will be making their decisions in 1 week though, the lag is always a problem. I'm in Devon and I think if they were making the decision today instead of a week ago we'd be in tier 1, although Exeter doesn't seem to be falling as fast as the other problem areas, Plymouth and Torbay. Might be due to student testing? I don't know where you check that.

@HoldingTight
Why would cases being increasing or even staying flat three/four weeks into a lockdown? Surely, now that restrictions are reduced, cases will rise?

Kingston upon Thames had case drops from mid November by specimen date by they've had a few mini peaks. The council signed up to get lateral flow tests and have had a small increase the last few days by specimen date. They would expect to find more cases from testing more people out and about, so it might be a bit soon to call it. Ealing likewise signed up and have been pushing lateral flow tests, but their drops in some areas are disguising rises in others.
I'm sure there is plenty of rule-breaking in all areas, but no major obvious factors (care home / factory / uni concentrations) that I can see. I'm less sure about what other areas of London are pushing the lateral flow tests at the moment to be able to compare, we'll have to wait for test positivity later this week.

According to the Guardian they have said they will review on 16th December, announce on 17th and take effect from 19th. So would think they will use data up to about 13th December which only gives 10-11 days of seeing the impact
www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/02/tier-3-lockdown-rules-in-england-latest-covid-restrictions-explained

Well, screw tier 2 that's what I say. My local area has a rate of 652 cases per 100 000, which I reckon is one of the highest in the country. coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

And we are coming out of lockdown. Where is the logic in that?

It's all well and good to look at the rate nationally, but means absolutely nothing on a local level. No acquired 'herd immunity' here.

@Firefliess on the question of testing at Unis. I share your view as to how quickly test numbers are being reported through, especially if those doing it mainly started on Monday just gone. It’s a new process in reporting terms so I can imagine some initial delays.

That said I am wholly unconvinced that a significant percentage of students will be tested, or whether there is really the capacity to deliver. It did make a great soundbite though.

And even if it is a relatively small percentage hopefully many of those will be ones with elderly or vulnerable relatives or in healthcare placements who are acting to minimise the risk they might pose.

@QueenBlueberries - what tier have you gone into? The difference between tier 3 and lockdown isn't significant for risk factors in my opinion, nor even tier 2 really im it's new form. I may have missed something though and it would be interesting to know what you think is now allowed that would make cases rise in your area that wasn't allowed a few days ago?

@QueenBlueberries is that at MSOA/ward level rather than borough level? I didn’t think there were any boroughs with rates as high as that any more.

Tier 2. Many cases in schools, primary and secondary. I work in a secondary school and we have new cases nearly every day. We are in east London it’s the borough with the most cases in Greater London, and my local neighbourhood has 652 cases per 100 000. There are 4 primary schools and 1 secondary schools locally.

MSOA sorry

My local area has a rate of 652 cases per 100 000, which I reckon is one of the highest in the country.

On the upside 29 MSOAs do have a higher rate.

Although that does mean that 6,761 have a lower rate. And of these only 519 have data suppressed meaning they had 0, 1 or at most 2 cases in that 7 day period. Although that's an improvement on the 7 days to 13th November when just 102 had data suppressed.

Given the smaller populations MSOA rates can a) look really bad in terms of cases per 100,000, and b) move down quite quickly.

Can it significantly go down now that shops, restaurants and pubs with ‘significant meals’ opening up?