Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

Thanks baths3ba, thanks it is involved isn't it and if you aren't local you don't always "get it." They just announced a big explosion in Bristol on BBC. Hope you are safe.

14879 cases

414 deaths

Lateral flow tests (England) 27380 v 29003 and 29687 for the previous two days.

So still no sign of all this uni lateral flow testing then @boys3?

The University I work at has, I suspect, had lower than expected uptake. They've emailed round saying they have spare capacity if staff want to go and get tested.

That's interesting @clare. The uni DSD goes to have had all their tests fully booked up.

@ancientgran

Tier 2. Many cases in schools, primary and secondary. I work in a secondary school and we have new cases nearly every day. We are in east London it’s the borough with the most cases in Greater London, and my local neighbourhood has 652 cases per 100 000. There are 4 primary schools and 1 secondary schools locally. Madness isn't it. Where I am it think it is 32, or maybe 35, per 100,000, I don't think anywhere is Devon is over 100 per 100,000 but we are tier 2 as well. To be fair I think it is hospital capacity down here, we are traditionally underfunded and it is showing.

We’re 52 cases per 100k and tier 3.

@clarexbp without “outing” yourself/uni too much, do you know if it’s likely to have had a high proportion of students living at home and commuting to/from lectures? Or do you think it’s more that students are scared of testing positive and not being sure of how to then go home? Or something else...

@lurker101, I would say most of our students come from within the region (south east) but very few from the immediate area itself - very few live at home during term time.

I haven't been on campus for ages so haven't got a feel for what's going on there - I've got a hunch quite a few cleared off ages ago.

Does anyone know what the secondary schools in Solihull are like in terms of cases? Thanks

@clarexbp

The University I work at has, I suspect, had lower than expected uptake. They've emailed round saying they have spare capacity if staff want to go and get tested.

Hmm, I wonder if we are at the same uni 😃

We were told staff could get tested closer to Christmas but now we've had a message to say we can book now.

@pahrump, I think a different university, as I don't think there was ever a plan to open it up to staff at our place.

Looks like student apathy re testing is fairly widespread.

I think so many students have had Covid they are probably wary of getting a dead-virus false positive. I've told my student dc not to bother for this reason.

Students who have had a positive test in last 90 days have been told not to retest before travel because of risk of false positives (same advice given to NHS staff), so that’ll account for some not testing, spec in areas of high prevalence.

@Firefliess it does make you wonder quite what is going on. I do wonder whether the numbers are actually being reported through.

If most / all unis participating - those in the sector will have far more insight than me on that point - that would be 130 or so unis. Even if lateral flow tests only related to unis, and of course we know they don’t, 27380 in a day would average out at 210 per uni. From the few I’ve seen on the news their set ups look like 15 to 20 testing booths for want of a better word. Say 15 of those and to get to 210 each would see 14 students, or about 1 every half hour if open on a 9 to 5 type basis. Doesn’t sound quite right.

boys3

A number of London Boroughs appear in the list but is there a reason why Enfield is not included in your lists

boy3 sorry seen Enfield now

We’re 52 cases per 100k and tier 3. Hard to figure isn't it, although I'm told one of things in my area is we don't have adequate hospital provision. I think there will be pressure to do something about that when this is sorted.

I'm getting confused about the vaccine and care homes, I've heard they aren't getting the first lot although they are the priority, all plans in place for vaccinations to start for NHS staff next week, care homes still the priority and they are working on it, and so on.

Does anyone know who is getting it first? The residents in the care home where I do some work are as confused as me and upset with it as they were first, not first, maybe first.

@ancientgran the Pfizer jab has to be kept at a very low temperature and cannot be moved around to be given in small numbers at different locations as it is unstable. To prevent waste it will be given in hospitals or central places like the nightingales. This means it will be given to nhs staff and those high up the priority list who have hospital appointments. It would not be practical for care home residents to travel to these vaccination hubs but care home staff will be able to.
The hope is that the Oxford jab will be approved soon as this is easier to store and transport so then care ho pie residents will be first in line.

Hi, but they are now saying it might not be NHS first and they are working on plans?

It has to thaw out for several hours so surely care homes could collect it and arrange injections? Many care homes have nurses on staff and others have regular visits from nurses. Surely it is possible to stick to the priority list.

Thinking about it if it really has to be given at some centre (a hospital perhaps?) they care home staff could go and get their jab at the hospital. The staff are the most likely way the virus gets into the home, unless they start discharging infected people into homes again.

Even preventing staff being off sick would be a bonus as less need for agency staff.

I think part of the problem with the Pfizer jab is that although in theory it can be split into smaller batches as suggested on the thread, and Pfizer have said it can be, it hasn’t yet been approved by MHRA for splitting into smaller batches. I believe this is being reviewed, but hasn’t yet been approved and I guess best to get one approval done and start distribution while working on the other. I’ll try to find links for this

@ancientgran

Hi, but they are now saying it might not be NHS first and they are working on plans?

It has to thaw out for several hours so surely care homes could collect it and arrange injections? Many care homes have nurses on staff and others have regular visits from nurses. Surely it is possible to stick to the priority list.

They couldn't happen as simply as that. It is an extremely volatile product that can only be moved a max of 4 times. It certainly would not just be handed over to someone to collect like a box of paracetamol. Each batch also contains a v large number of doses and can't just be split easily as jvt said "taken in and out of a fridge like a pot of yoghurt"

If it's feasibly possible, care homes will get it first. But this drug is a nightmare to handle tbh. They are trying their best. You will hear soon

Found a link - it was the NHS Chief Executive that said the above www.google.co.uk/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKBN28D1CG