Data & analysis thread, started 1 December

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

New thread!

Link to previous:

Data and analysis thread, started 12 November www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4077794-data-and-analysis-thread-started-12-november

Could it be deaths, with belated covid test? I can't find a chart of additions, but they tend to be plonked in groups.

Apparently there were a large no of lateral flow tests done yesterday which might account for the higher that typical number of postives with yesterday's specimen date.
mobile.twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1333819914658918402

If mass rapid testing is kicking off might lead to a slow down of the decrease in cases (or even a flattening or increase) but that's no necessarily a bad thing if a higher percentage of cases are found and people isolate. However will be interesting to see how it plays out in press.

Loads of students are getting lateral flow tests done this week in preparation for safe (we hope) decanting.

Yes, they have started at my Uni for students who are going home for Christmas.

My son has two this week. I'm assuming the first one was negative as we haven't had a phone call...

I recall someone mentioning (scientist? i think) that lateral flow tests were designed to be used on symptomatic cases in hospitals and that the current usage pattern is of little actual use.
Anyone remember anything about this?

it would be useful if they provided a separate figure for positives from lateral flow test, especially as the number of lateral flow tests is shown on the testing page of the dashboard - 29,559 yesterday and 239,380 to date (since 21st October - although real volume started 6th Nov, only 554 prior to that).

As the Liverpool positivity plunge has shown a fair number may be taking the lateral flow tests but relatively few are testing positive; whether the Uni testing shows the same we'll have to wait and see.

It will also be interesting to know if those Uni students who are mainly taking two tests register as two positive cases if both tests return a positive - presumably should be counted only once.

Any thoughts on likely student take up? UEA who had testing capability (PCR) from day 1 were on BBC news channel yesterday afternoon and stated 3,500 slots booked - which could be 1750 students booking their two slots - out of 17,000 students, so somewhere between 10% and 20% at the moment.

If a student tests positive twice I think that's only counted once in the stats @boys3. They say it's people testing positive for the first time that they report (as it's not uncommon for hospitals, etc to retest people and they don't double count them -not these days, I think they did a bit early on)

But I can't see any sign of mass uni testing in the stats for today - the number of tests seems quite low. DSD (student) has been told that if they test positive they should retest with an NHS lab test to confirm, so I'm not sure how they deal with that in the stats (nor why it is necessary as the problem with the instant tests appears to be under-sensitivity, rather than false positives?)

16170 cases, 648 deaths, no updated hospitalisation / test figures yet.
Last Weds was 18,213; still going down but only 11% so less of a drop than we saw last week.

Deaths are up? Is that expected following a previous spike in hospitalisations that are now falling, or unexpected?

London is not going down as much as other regions in England (which is generally consistent with Zoe that also shows London trend as almost flat).

The case numbers are nowhere as high as they were in other regions prior to the lockdown 2.0 + the healthcare appears to have capacity but the trend seems to indicate London R is pretty close to 1.

Liverpool has gone down a lot. The prevalence has dropped to under 100/100,000.

@MRex that week on week changes varies by nation. In reported terms 13323 in England today as opposed to 15893 last week, so 15% or so. In contrast Wales 1480 as opposed to 907 last Wednesday, so rising rather than falling.

10014 added to Monday’s spec date in England as opposed to 11514 last week.

The day-1 figure is up again 1320 vs 626, but day-3 significantly lower 1369 vs 2854

It is a shame testing figs not updated yet, will be interested to see the lateral flow test number.

@bathsh3ba

Deaths are up? Is that expected following a previous spike in hospitalisations that are now falling, or unexpected?

Deaths are down compared to same day last week which was 695. I’ve just done a quick average of deaths for the the last few weeks and the average for the last 7 days is actually the first average that is lower than the previous week for this wave.

Deaths are down on last Wednesday (696 last Wednesday) but that was, I think the highest we've had in the second wave.

Interestingly if you look at the separate nation case rates:
England are going down fairly steadily.
N. I. are going down quickly
Wales initially went down, but look like they may have a second peak in this wave, unsure whether that second peak is still increasing or decreasing currently.
Scotland are going down but very slowly.

The 7 day data is definitely decreasing, but the decrease looks like it could be levelling off.

I'd be worried that if things are released too quickly, then we'll go back up again like Wales have. Hopefully people won't rush out to do Christmas shopping.

Also of note: Wales reported deaths today is the highest since April.

@wintertravel1980 indeed almost 20% of cases added today in England are in London, London’s population is around 16% of the England total. East mids also has a slightly disproportionate number, whereas just 5% of cases added today in south west which has 10% of the population.

Swale still not looking good. Another 153 cases added the same number as Manchester. 279 cases added in Medway, only Birmingham added more today but from a population of over 1.1 million as compared with around 278,000 in Medway.

Johnson doing press conference with JVT and Simon Stevens

The London case rates aren't up by much, they just haven't dropped in the boroughs with most infections. This article has all the figures listed by borough: www.mylondon.news/news/health/london-covid-areas-coronavirus-cases-19383268.amp.

The mask is a little out of date, but had creeping green and white from the centre, then little pockets of growth; Chessington, Norwood Green, some of Havering. No specific areas look like they're tanking quickly at a top level nor local level; no news is good news but it would obviously be nice if we saw a drop soon.

Wales’s trend seems to indicate that “short and sharp’ circuit breakers do not work too well if the exit strategy is to go back to pre-lockdown measures (unless we are in late spring or summer and are supported by seasonal factors).

There was little point in taping off “non essential” rows in supermarkets. It is much more important to come up with sustainable measures that can be maintained over most of the winder and would allow to keep R under 1.

@MRex

The London case rates aren't up by much, they just haven't dropped in the boroughs with most infections. This article has all the figures listed by borough: www.mylondon.news/news/health/london-covid-areas-coronavirus-cases-19383268.amp.

The mask is a little out of date, but had creeping green and white from the centre, then little pockets of growth; Chessington, Norwood Green, some of Havering. No specific areas look like they're tanking quickly at a top level nor local level; no news is good news but it would obviously be nice if we saw a drop soon.

Why would cases being increasing or even staying flat three/four weeks into a lockdown? Surely, now that restrictions are reduced, cases will rise?

Apologies for typos!

Liverpool indeed!! Cases per 100,000 99.8 in the 7 days to 27 nov, 44% down on the previous 7 days and in the lowest 100 LAs now.

Even better across the river Wirral down to 62.3, a week on week fall of almost 55%.

The two tier 1 areas have the two lowest rates and are both under 30 per 100,000 now.

At the other end Swale 556.4, up slightly; Medway 519.8 up nearly 25% and Boston 501.6 up 15%.

A gap then to Thanet at 452.0, falling 7%; and then another quite big gap to Gravesham 380.6, marginally falling and Lincoln 371.6 up 10%.

9 council areas in the 300s per 100,000 including tier 2 Redbridge.

The 50th highest has a rate of 225, Wakefield, and if those 44 are in tier 3. 36 of the next 50 also tier 3.

For the 7 days to 27th the overall rate for tier 2 areas is 116.3, down 23%; and tier 3 areas rate is 215.8 down 30%. The two tier 1 areas had a combined week on week decrease of 54%.

London as already pointed out has the smallest decrease, but still down almost 15%. Other regional week on week falls

North east 29%

North west 33%

Yorks and Humber 31%

East mids 26%

West mids 22%

East. 16%

South east 18%

South west 32%

The inner and outer London borough split is 20% and 12%.

Just in terms of lockdown it took around 10 for the downward trajectory to start given the incubation period, and I would expect the impact of lockdown in England to continue to be reflected in case numbers for the next 7-10 days. Then we will start to see how well or not the tiers that have started today are working.

I'm fed up of all the briefings being done before many people have finished working. It's then not very easy to watch them on catch-up until the next evening.

Yes it's almost as if they forgot they told everyone to get back to work!