Will those blaming schools for the rise in cases admit they were wrong?

[notevenat20]

R is now around 0.71 and the case numbers are dropping rapidly (hooray!). It seems obvious this huge improvement has been caused by the lockdown. But schools were open the whole time. It's also therefore clear that schools cannot have been the main cause of the second wave.

All these threads are the same.
Everybody has a different story to tell. Everyone thinks that their own personal experience is the same for everyone else. It isn't. It is different in different schools, and in different parts of the country.

The reality is that of course schools are vectors for spread. But that was the decision made, schools to be open whilst other areas of the economy closed. BUT, some schools are obviously being managed better than others. On teacher threads, all schools are in crises, on parent threads, schools have only had isolated cases. Some schools have controlled the spread better. They have mandated masks in communal areas, they have implemented staggered start and close times, one way systems, staggered lunches, open windows and doors, no uniform policies. If some schools can do that, why not all? Why do some schools send everyone home, and some only a small cohort?

The question I really want to ask is: What are the consequences of SLT's making their own decisions and going their own way with regards to safety measures? If some schools are already doing that anyway, why not all. What can the D0fE seriously do, if a school decides to mandate masks in class, or no uniform, or flexible learning?

But wouldn’t the R have lowered if pubs had stayed open and schools had shut?? Schools near me have mostly all ended up closed for 2 weeks at some point anyhow so that will have had an impact as I’m sure it’s not only my area where this is the case?

If you keep eating exactly the same as you are now, but cut out all sugar, you may well lose weight. This does not mean that crisps are not also fattening.
Unfortunately what we really have here is a bunch of people who eat too much cake, and a separate bunch of people who eat too many crisps. The people who eat cake are losing weight. The people who eat crisps are gaining weight. The cake people are losing more weight than the crisp people are gaining.
The cake people are also laughing in the faces of the crisp people, which is a bit fucking insensitive.

I don't think that using your common sense to point out the obvious reality a place where lots of households come together will be a place where a virus would spread makes you part of the "close the schools brigade".

It's not a binary choice between believing all schools should be closed indefinitely or children are somehow magically not spreading the virus while at school.

The OP stats are misleading and lots jumping on it to go ‘yippee’ prematurely.

I have attached the actual current R rate from the .gov website (not an estimated study based one from the OP).

The R rate is ‘up to 1’ and that is with a lockdown in England plus other tier restrictions in Scotland Etc. An R rate of up to 1 with only schools pretty much open is pretty worrying no?!

I’m glad schools have stayed open so that the R rate could hover around 1 if that was the goal and I say this as a teacher who has currently tested positive for Covid caught from school and in a lot of pain BUT let’s not pretend schools don’t drive cases at all.

The R rate could have been closer to 0 after all....

Y11 in the DCs school closed last week and Y7 this morning So yes, it does seem to be rife in (some) schools

If they are closing an entire year for one case (as they do in DS's school) then you can get the wrong impression about prevalence. You only need 1 in 200 children to get it for the entire school to be shut down if it's one in each year.

@Baaaahhhhh

All these threads are the same. Everybody has a different story to tell. Everyone thinks that their own personal experience is the same for everyone else. It isn't. It is different in different schools, and in different parts of the country.

The reality is that of course schools are vectors for spread. But that was the decision made, schools to be open whilst other areas of the economy closed. BUT, some schools are obviously being managed better than others. On teacher threads, all schools are in crises, on parent threads, schools have only had isolated cases. Some schools have controlled the spread better. They have mandated masks in communal areas, they have implemented staggered start and close times, one way systems, staggered lunches, open windows and doors, no uniform policies. If some schools can do that, why not all? Why do some schools send everyone home, and some only a small cohort?

The question I really want to ask is: What are the consequences of SLT's making their own decisions and going their own way with regards to safety measures? If some schools are already doing that anyway, why not all. What can the D0fE seriously do, if a school decides to mandate masks in class, or no uniform, or flexible learning?

Not all school buildings are the same... thus what is easy for one school to manage will not necessarily be as easy for another.

Schools in different parts of the country receive different levels of funding, for no good reason. This situation was improved slightly but still exists and there is a legacy of underfunding over decades in some parts of the country. London state schools are still disproportionately better funded than most of the rest of the country.

The DfE clearly thinks it can do something about schools’ behaviour if it is preventing MATs from closing a week early. It might have something to do with state schools being funded by the state!

*text

I have attached the actual current R rate from the .gov website (not an estimated study based one from the OP).

I don't think you are right. All figures for R are estimated. There is no way to measure it directly. If you look at the results section you can see the discrepancy www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/imperial_react1_r7_interim.pdf .

Let me quote a longer passage:

"We found 821 positives from 105,123 swabs giving an unweighted prevalence of 0.78%
(95% CI, 0.73%, 0.84%) and a weighted prevalence of 0.96% (0.87%, 1.05%). The weighted
prevalence estimate was ~30% lower than that of 1.32% (1.20%, 1.45%) obtained in the
second half of round 6. This decrease corresponds to a halving time of 37 (30, 47) days and
an R number of 0.88 (0.86, 0.91). Using only data from the most recent period, we estimate
an R number of 0.71 (0.54, 0.90). A spline fit to prevalence showed a rise shortly after the
previous period of data collection followed by a fall coinciding with the start of lockdown. "

So you get 0.88 (rounded to 0.9) if you look at the period before and after lockdown and 0.71 if you look only at the period since lockdown. The latter figure looks more relevant. You can also just look at the graph and see the numbers going down (which they would not at such speed if the R were near 1). I have attached it again.

How come my son and two others have Covid now? 10 per cent of his class? The two secondary schools my son's are with infections, schools begging parents to stop sending in kids who've tested positive?

How come my y10 has had four periods of self isolation since Sept?

How come I've found out today a headteacher colleague has been blue lit due to Covid?

Is this representative of work places or could it be that schools in high risk areas like mine are not Covid safe and that its ripping through like wildfire?

Im sure for those in areas/schools with few or zero cases it might seem this is under control, but schools here are on their knees due to the number of cases.

Sorry, the two schools my son's are at are rife we cases.
The three current cases are in one form alone.

Auto text keeps putting apostrophe in the plural, sons...

Thank God only a few hundred people have died without underlying conditions

Fucking hell the scum really does float to the top.

@TragedyHands

Thank God only a few hundred people have died without underlying conditions. The way people go on you'd expect it to be thousands for the removal of our freedom.

So the lives of people with underlying conditions don’t matter?

They are easily disposable.

I assume you don’t have any family members with underlying health problems?

@TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince

bathsh3ba

How do you know? The schools don’t tell parents anything unless it affects their year groups. And the kids don’t know.

I work in a school and live in the same community. Local people are aghast when l tell them the school has had 15 cases. They all think it’s 2 or 3

Not the case here, school tell the parents about every time a group is isolating, medium sized secondary school with 4 instances so far and from what I see on facebook all the local schools are operating a similar policy. I'd guess that the local people are pretty well informed about school related cases, probably worth remembering that we're not all sending our children to the same school as you.

This is an interesting thread

The point though is that it wasn’t under control in the northwest just a couple of months ago, but it does appear in large areas (not everywhere) to be getting to the point where it is under control. With schools open. So it is possible. Why it’s not happening everywhere yet I guess is the million dollar question, but the answer clearly isn’t to close schools across the country.

My DH is a teacher - I’m aware of the conditions they are working under, I don’t wish extra risk on anyone, speedy recovery to anyone who has caught it.

Thank God only a few hundred people have died without underlying conditions🤮🤮

Fucking hell! Eugenics in action. Terrible terrible comment.

Many councils are now advocating that children get tested for things like tummy upsets and headaches as it's widely acknowledged that children present differently so I think that covid is circulating in schools as it always has done its just that more children now have access to tests so it gives the false impression that cases are increasing in schools.

You can (and we do) have both a low R rate and a high number of cases. I think of it like skiing down a mountain. You can be skiing very fast but still be at high altitude if you started at the top.

*Not the case here, school tell the parents about every time a group is isolating, medium sized secondary school with 4 instances so far and from what I see on facebook all the local schools are operating a similar policy. I'd guess that the local people are pretty well informed about school related cases, probably worth remembering that we're not all sending our children to the same school as you.

This is an interesting thread*

Same here. All the schools local to me, primary and secondary, post an announcement on FB with the year group effected. I see them all the time because they get shared all over whenever it happens. There's only been one case in my kids school but the whole school got a text with the year group named. I'm a teacher but on maternity. The office is sending out an email to all staff every morning with a list of initials and which class for children off for anything covid related, and the reason. There's usually only 2 or 3 kids on the list and usually it's because someone in their house has symptoms rather than them. One confirmed case there too.

Maybe just report above vile poster rather than repost.

We did start in September being told about each case in both my dd secondary school. Not both of them are on 30+ cases we only get informed of it’s in their year group or if it’s a case on a school bus that might affect cross over of years.

Schools aren't a vector for spread, if that was the case then it wouldn't just be 1 or 2 children in 1 class. The child would have been infectious a couple of days prior to showing any of the symptoms which would prompt a test. I just don't think it spreads as indiscriminately as people believe otherwise all members of a family would get it or an entire class etc.

I don't think you are right.

The published government figure isn’t right? If so, then neither is yours. I’d be the first to agree with you not to trust the government necessarily but your study pooled from some very low numbers (that you helpfully posted there, thank you). Your study even specifically mentions pupil numbers are rising and continue to do so.

I am very happy that we have managed to get the R rate to 1 or just below but let’s not pretend that it is not spreading in schools and is not contributing to the numbers increasing.

This only causes some people to start relaxing and taking more risks and those ‘rash’ decisions will cause more cases a slight pun there as a rash and burning skin is my only Covid symptom and we know what happens then, eh?

Unfortunately, the secondary schools I also work with have now had so many cases that they now only write out to those impacted.

When this first started happening in September they would write to the year group/class/individuals and the wider school.

Over time this has dropped. Many schools have several cases each week now and as I mentioned, three alone in my son's form currently.