Will those blaming schools for the rise in cases admit they were wrong?

[notevenat20]

R is now around 0.71 and the case numbers are dropping rapidly (hooray!). It seems obvious this huge improvement has been caused by the lockdown. But schools were open the whole time. It's also therefore clear that schools cannot have been the main cause of the second wave.

Tagging rather. I’m not talking about spread in schools. But overall R0

The biggest worry Government will have is students returning from Cities back to their suburban towns and reseeding the virus into naive populations. This will be masked for a period of time, due to the inherent reduction of R due to School holiday shutdown. The infection lag will not be apparent until January.

I posted the below on another thread yesterday. I live in Devon and I think the figures for Torbay are a great demonstration of how mass movement round the country can seed infections.

Cases in Torbay
Some half terms started 19th October some 26th
Weekly number of positive cases on week ending
19th October 151
26th October 195
2nd November 262
9th November 341
16th November 124

I went into Torquay on the 25th to pick GC up and was amazed at the traffic, the whole town was jammed, parking was a nightmare. I think the figures show the effects.

The government won't give secondary schools the rapid tests because they know it will look bad politically when there's loads more cases identified.

This is not true - my friends who work in Liverpool schools had the mass testing done there. Not sure if it was done in all schools or down to individual institutions to make the choice, but it definitely happened.

@RaspberryCoulis

The hardcore "shut the schools and stay the fuck in the house" lot are never going to accept that, *@notevenat20*. Brace yourself for lots of anec-data about how they're falling like flies at their local secondary school.

This.

The shut the school's brigade will never admit they are wrong. Some on here constantly banging on about shutting schools really should change career

Schools do drive cases they are a huge number of people mixing - I dont think anyone can say they arent. Chris Whitty certainly implies if not says that is the case. This lockdown occured in order to ensure that schools remain open. Everything shut so they could be open

But they are rightly prioritised to a certain extent to stay open (across the board) and those who question how it is going actually question whether we are implementing it safely. Schools are making different decisions and not always the safest

Apologies, @MarshaBradyo. So, you agree covid does spread in schools, both primary and secondary, then?

@Timeontimeoff - some people banging on about people saying schools should shut when most people are saying schools should be given the means to operate more safely because it is important they stay open (but preferably not at the expense of everything else), should learn to read more carefully.

@juggler82

Apologies, I didn’t see your reply. I’m aware I’ve reposted it. Can you explain how the numbers here have dropped so dramatically if it’s the schools driving the spread? The numbers - from 500 per 100000 to possibly 0 with schools open do not lie. It is not anecdotal, no personal stories here.

No, I can't explain that - it's still not really data, it's just one area. Can you explain why cases in my area have hovered between 200 - 400/ 100,000 for months - up/down/up/down? Tier 3. Me neither.

Schools will drive a considerable amount of spread. By their nature. If you lock everything else down, the impact will be more limited. Other aspects of society - if allowed to open - will also drive a considerable amount of spread. I just don't see how anyone can argue otherwise.

@Walkaround

Apologies, *@MarshaBradyo*. So, you agree covid does spread in schools, both primary and secondary, then?

I’m not sure re primary. Hasn’t that been flat overall?

Secondary depends on school. We’ve not had spread at all and may well have been hit in March slowing it down. Other schools have been hit hard.

I’m fine with our school’s approach which is to go to remote when under pressure if it happens.

However decision on schools open is not just about this. It’s about harm outweighing benefit when closed. Which Whitty states clearly even if he thinks spread is there.

Best to look at contribution to R and go from there. And I’m very relieved R is below 1 whilst they are open. Great news. It may well not have been the case.

The fact everything else is shut down means it's reduced yes, but the kids activities etc are shut so it's not typical for kids at the moment. People are being extra careful

Case rates are going up still in primary age children, @MarshaBradyo.

I'd say the biggest contributor to the spread are people who have it, but don't know it and carry on with work and daily life as much as possible. There's a much bigger list of symptoms on the Trak and trace than the 3, that you at least need one of to be eligible for a swab). If I applied for a swab now, I'd be knocked back, even though I've got it - no cough, loss of taste, no fever. I do have lots of other symptoms, which I pieced together and took a test to check - had to white lie though and claim a fever. Widening the symptom list to look out for would help I feel.

@Walkaround

Case rates are going up still in primary age children, *@MarshaBradyo*.

Given where the R is are you relieved or if not what do you want to happen?

We had 28 teaching staff off isolating the other week. A lot of kids too. Member of staff in hospital. Several very ill. Bumped into a parent while doing school run (I'm part time) she was under the impression we'd had no cases.

@MarshaBradyo - I want more funding so that when staff are off sick, schools can afford cover, so it doesn’t mean the school is not being cleaned properly due to lack of staff; or children can’t be properly supervised due to lack of staff. More money for all the bloody soap and hand towels. More money was promised, then schools were told this would no longer apply going forward, and many schools are still to receive what extra money was originally promised. Schools need staff to be able to stay open.

Yes, it’s just one area, but it’s also happening in other areas of the northwest where the R has finally dropped below 1, and schools are still manifestly open. The numbers in Trafford, Stockport, Liverpool & other areas are vastly improved.

I’m not denying there will be some level of spread especially in the older years, but they really don’t appear to be driving the spread, or areas which had such terrible numbers would still have terrible numbers.

The other thing is what is happening in Wales, the firebreak was a preferred option for many on here. But numbers going up faster than expected? (Every sympathy for everyone it sucks to be back with restrictions)

yeah yeah, which is why cases have risen in school and school is currently closed.

it is great news that it is going down elsewhere, but our school hasn't seen that decrease.

[quote Walkaround]@MarshaBradyo - I want more funding so that when staff are off sick, schools can afford cover, so it doesn’t mean the school is not being cleaned properly due to lack of staff; or children can’t be properly supervised due to lack of staff. More money for all the bloody soap and hand towels. More money was promised, then schools were told this would no longer apply going forward, and many schools are still to receive what extra money was originally promised. Schools need staff to be able to stay open.[/quote]
I don’t disagree at all Walkaround

@Almostslimjim

How do you know? The schools don’t tell parents anything unless it affects their year groups.

Depends on the school. We get a text every time a bubble closes.

We get a test as well every time a child or staff member is waiting for a test result, at DC’s primary. No children have tested positive since September, and only 1 last academic year on the last day of term. There have been 3 teachers who all tested positive at the same time before half term though, so they had an extra week with the whole school closed.

@TheEmojiFormerlyKnownAsPrince

bathsh3ba

How do you know? The schools don’t tell parents anything unless it affects their year groups. And the kids don’t know.

I work in a school and live in the same community. Local people are aghast when l tell them the school has had 15 cases. They all think it’s 2 or 3

Both our schools are updating parents on all positive cases, how many are isolating and sometimes how many are awaiting test results.

To be fair i am pleased cases dropped overall during this lockdown as many people made huge financial sacrifices like losing their job or main trading time and it would have beem awful for that to happen and cases still rise. I'm still concerned that with cases still rising in schools that its not going to take long for cases to rise again as people mix and people could have kept their business or jobs if schools had been made safer.

So far ds school secondary has had no isolation , apparently 3 staff positive but not been in contact with students or in holidays so no students had to isolate
But feel only a matter of time
Most schools round here have only had 1-2 cases but they do send whole year groups home , well they did . School recently sent copy of letter from phe which makes me think that will change from tone of letter which I think is a big mistake unless they can be sure because year group mix at break and lunch so to me they can't be sure who has had contact just because not in a lesson
I do think it would make sense for school to go online last week but the problem is how many will let there kids mix anyway
Round here despite lockdown certain groups of teens are going around on large groups at weekend /evenings etc and even some out and about when should be self isolating as parents don't seem to care what they are up to

Y11 in the DCs school closed last week and Y7 this morning
So yes, it does seem to be rife in (some) schools

[quote Walkaround]@MarshaBradyo - I want more funding so that when staff are off sick, schools can afford cover, so it doesn’t mean the school is not being cleaned properly due to lack of staff; or children can’t be properly supervised due to lack of staff. More money for all the bloody soap and hand towels. More money was promised, then schools were told this would no longer apply going forward, and many schools are still to receive what extra money was originally promised. Schools need staff to be able to stay open.[/quote]
I think everyone should be able to get behind this. I have an acquaintance who is a CEV secondary teacher of a non-core subject, who's more worried about being made redundant if shielding were to continue because the school can't afford cover than she is about catching and potentially dying from covid in school. The lack of funding to cover staff shortages is disgraceful.