Will those blaming schools for the rise in cases admit they were wrong?

[notevenat20]

R is now around 0.71 and the case numbers are dropping rapidly (hooray!). It seems obvious this huge improvement has been caused by the lockdown. But schools were open the whole time. It's also therefore clear that schools cannot have been the main cause of the second wave.

@ChloeDecker

I don't think you are right.

The published government figure isn’t right? If so, then neither is yours. I’d be the first to agree with you not to trust the government necessarily but your study pooled from some very low numbers (that you helpfully posted there, thank you). Your study even specifically mentions pupil numbers are rising and continue to do so.

I am very happy that we have managed to get the R rate to 1 or just below but let’s not pretend that it is not spreading in schools and is not contributing to the numbers increasing.

This only causes some people to start relaxing and taking more risks and those ‘rash’ decisions will cause more cases a slight pun there as a rash and burning skin is my only Covid symptom and we know what happens then, eh?

I’m all for people not to relax. I’m relieved as if the R was 1.4 say, wth would we do - very difficult decisions.

Like the vaccine we’re not out of the woods yet but each chunk of light I’m going to take. But yes keep pressure on.

@pennylane83

Schools aren't a vector for spread, if that was the case then it wouldn't just be 1 or 2 children in 1 class. The child would have been infectious a couple of days prior to showing any of the symptoms which would prompt a test. I just don't think it spreads as indiscriminately as people believe otherwise all members of a family would get it or an entire class etc.

You are assuming pupils will display symptoms and get tested. Sadly, we have no real way of knowing exactly how many in a class will catch it. It is only because my child (who was self isolating after a positive case in the class) developed a rash on the back of the knees and then I did on my wrists a day later and Googled it and saw that in most other countries, they have a rash as an only symptom of Covid why the U.K. doesn’t makes me angry and I got a test (had to lie and say fever as well). Wouldn’t have thought to otherwise. Since telling the school and What’s App group (so outing myself here!) two other children have had a rash last week and aren’t getting tested. I’m a teacher and was in school Friday sadly. My DH is also a teacher in another school and potentially bang goes that school. 3 schools this has affect and that’s only the tip of the known iceberg.

Children don’t get the same symptoms as adults mostly and therefore, difficult to test and know the true scale.

Schools aren't a vector for spread, if that was the case then it wouldn't just be 1 or 2 children in 1 class. The child would have been infectious a couple of days prior to showing any of the symptoms which would prompt a test. I just don't think it spreads as indiscriminately as people believe otherwise all members of a family would get it or an entire class etc.

As earlier my class are currently on 5 cases in the same class in the last week including me.

I know of two families who both have had the whole family test positive.

Why this only happens in some and not all cases is interesting. But it is definitely happening.

are getting tested not aren’t. Sorry.

That will shut the 'schools should be shut brigade' and 'I've pulled my kid out of school' lot.

Feel sorry for those kids pulled out of school and there was no need.

ChloeDecker
There's going to be no sensible discussion with the OP because now they think they've found a 'gotcha' to support their opinion then all they are going to do is keep copying and pasting.

Even their latest copy and paste job ignores the fact that the swabs were taken from 13th to 24th November.

The problem with research is that often people cherry pick what they want to try and support their opinion and then won't entertain that maybe it's not as simple as that.
In fact, as a general rule I tend to suspend judgement, smile nicely and ignore people who take the approach of 'I read this one thing and because I think it supports my opinion then my opinion must be right' (it's a useful approach in school too when someone decides that 'the research' means their pet project that adds to workload is the silver bullet).

@mac12

Sorry haven't read the full thread but doesn't the data show that cases have dropped in all ages apart from school age children, where it's still rising? So actually children and schools do transmit the virus, with kids then taking it home to their parents and thus offsetting some of the gains of the lockdown? Think how low we might have got the R number had we extended half term by a couple of weeks. A lost opportunity.

^^Exactly this.

Also it’s common sense. Kids don’t social distance or wear masks. They are humans so obviously they carry and transmit the virus, maybe the amount they carry or shed etc is different perhaps, but it’s still there unless scientists are saying they are immune to it, which we know is not the case.
Therefore it’s obvious that if schools are open then obviously the virus will circulate in those settings 🤷‍♀️

We can always go lower with everyone at home even school age children. But it brings its own harms so it’s lucky that we can open and be under 1.

And as for only 1 or 2 cases per class?!! Seriously come to my tier 3 area and visit the secondaries here. No such thing as 1 or 2 cases only. We have had full school closures in many secondary and primary schools because they can’t cope. In one of our schools 40 staff were off isolating!! They closed half the school and it’s a really large secondary school too.

That will shut the 'schools should be shut brigade' and 'I've pulled my kid out of school' lot.
It doesn't at all.

Anyway, there's by far more people on here whining and claiming loads of people want schools shut than there are people expressing that view, and if parents feel the risk to their DC is such they don't want them in a crowded school then that's their right as parents.

Most of the discussion about schools seems to be:
Group A: We think the government should consider the risks and allow schools to operate in a way that is safe for staff and pupils. They should consider the following factors and properly fund schools to make an appropriate response.

Group B: (before September) but schools will be covid secure, if everyone maintains distance then there's no reason not to open them. (3 weeks into term)... why do we have staggared pick ups and drop offs? Why is my child sat next to someone all day? My child is freezing from having all the windows open? ... it turns out that the images of school as a socially distanced environment wasn't ever going to be realistic . Oh, I see what you mean. Really there should be more support for schools to open effectively.

Group B: (hysterically) look at everyone who wants to close schools! There's no reason to close schools. Just open as usual. Why do teachers think they're special. There's no need to send bubbles home. The fact teachers are having to isolate is proof they aren't following the rules otherwise they'd be 2m apart at all times. It's about time people stopped calling for all the schools to be shut.

*Group C

@Mumof3andlovingit

And as for only 1 or 2 cases per class?!! Seriously come to my tier 3 area and visit the secondaries here. No such thing as 1 or 2 cases only. We have had full school closures in many secondary and primary schools because they can’t cope. In one of our schools 40 staff were off isolating!! They closed half the school and it’s a really large secondary school too.

Yes that’s very difficult and a different picture.

Two cases in total in decent sized London secondary since September. I don’t know if we’ll get it later or we had it in March and it hit many without us knowing as no testing. We had a lot of staff absence but no way to know.

You summed that up well LolaSmiles

@MarshaBradyo
“ Two cases in total in decent sized London secondary since September. I don’t know if we’ll get it later or we had it in March and it hit many without us knowing as no testing. We had a lot of staff absence but no way to know.”

Sounds like a dream to me here in Yorkshire and Humber, would feel so much better if we only had 1 or 2 cases in schools. I’m constantly on edge thinking DC will pick it up and my DC are fed up with constantly having to isolate. They are usually at school for a week and then we get that dreaded text to pick up our child and self isolate for 2 weeks. They do have zoom lessons which appear to be of a good standard, so that’s the reason why some of parents in tier 3 areas rather schools do online teaching instead as there’s just no consistency for our kids.

Yeah my dd has been having zoom lessons. They just log straight into the lesson. Although she’s ‘lost’ her microphone so she doesn’t have to answer questions. It seems to reappear when she wants to scream at her friends🤔

@Char2015

R is not 0.71. What are you on about.

The r rate is between 0.9 and 1. So the op is making stuff up and should probably be back at school to learn basic mathematics.

ChloeDecker
Thank you.
The only people I know who have form for deciding that reading a research study (or worse, selectively reading a research paper, or worse still reading someone else's interpretation of a research study) makes their opinion right are:
A) people who are desperately trying to get noticed at work and who are masters of bullshit
B) people who are smart enough to read something but not smart enough to apply critical thought and consider the research in a balanced way
C) conspiracy theorists / people who have been to the 'university of life' and consider their lack of knowledge of experience in an area and selective cherry picking makes them better informed than everyone else.

The r rate is between 0.9 and 1. So the op is making stuff up and should probably be back at school to learn basic mathematics

That's an odd thing to say. I am quoting the REACT-1 round 7 interim report. I even provided a graph of the data for you to see it with your own eyes.

@Wherehavetheteletubbiesgone

Just to go back to basics, if you look at the graph, how can you get between 0.9 and 1.1 from it? Maybe those figures include a time before lockdown?

The published government figure isn’t right? If so, then neither is yours.

No that's not right. It's just a question of whether you look at a period that includes both before and after lockdown or just since lockdown.

In one of our schools 40 staff were off isolating!!

That's shocking.... but, not confirmed cases I assume. So are these teachers all isolating because they have been in contact with one another? As far as I understand it, if you have a case in your class, the teacher doesn't automatically go into isolation?

We've also only had three student cases. No teachers. Small numbers isolated. One in year 9 early Sept, one just before half term in year 11, and a recent one in year 8. No further spread to any other children or teachers, so assume these were all brought into school from home.

We got a positive result for dd this morning. She’s not been anywhere but school for the last month. Four in her class alone have tested positive so far.

I suspect you are wrong. And I wouldn't support it even if you were right.

I didn’t say I would support it but you cannot draw the conclusion that schools don’t spread covid. I agree we should prioritise education but there’s clear evidence that the schools are spreading the infection.

@Baaaahhhhh some classrooms just don't have space for the 2m exclusion zone at the front so teachers can't SD from the pupils. Some children, possibly due to additional needs, get very close to staff so if that particular pupil tests positive more staff will be impacted