Will those blaming schools for the rise in cases admit they were wrong?

[notevenat20]

R is now around 0.71 and the case numbers are dropping rapidly (hooray!). It seems obvious this huge improvement has been caused by the lockdown. But schools were open the whole time. It's also therefore clear that schools cannot have been the main cause of the second wave.

People saying "but the infection rate would fall even faster if we closed schools", well of course it would. The infection rate would drop to zero if we banned people from leaving their houses even to get food or medical care, but that doesn't mean it would be a proportionate measure! You have to consider how much of a difference it would make and weigh that against the downsides, which would be considerable.

Yes this would be very valuable data but one I think the government is reluctant to undertake.

Does anyone know if there's data available on how many asymptomatic pupils were picked up during the mass testing in Liverpool? I remember speculation on here that young people with covid were more likely to go undetected as they often have no or less common symptoms, and it would be interesting to see whether data from the pilot backs that.

I find it hard to believe that a Tory government would destroy the economy if there was another way round it (such as closing schools).

I assume it's because parents of school children work in all sectors and they don't want people who are hard to replace eg medical staff and other emergency services staff unable to work.

Johnson has also created an "exams must happen" mantra that must happen above all else which is highly ironic since school reopening last summer was centred around select primary school years returning full time rather than y12 and y10.

Ive not seen schools must close on here. I've seen close schools a few days early or online learning only for the last week so grandparents are "kept safe" for Christmas mixing

How do you know? The schools don’t tell parents anything unless it affects their year groups. And the kids don’t know

Of course the kids know if someone is sent home with symptoms or if three kids in the front row of their Maths class are all sent home to self-isolate.

But anyway, ds' college has emailed parents after every known case, and there have been three so far.

[quote ElinoristhenewEnid]@MrsSlocombesPussy I share your frustration re Ipswich. Suffolk is next to Isle of Wight on line graph of infections and a long way from Sussex the next lowest county in tier 2. If it was not for the infection increase in Ipswich I am sure Suffolk would be in tier 1. Ipswich had really low infection rates only a few weeks ago! I have heard of a lot of people who are mixing in households - very frustrating.[/quote]
Ipswich here too!

I strongly suspect the rise in cases in Ipswich isn't helped by the Ipswich Star continuously posting details for months on end about how we were bottom of the 'league table' for covid cases. People have basically got fed up of living under restrictions with such low levels so they took it for granted that they would be safe, and look what's happened!

I do wonder if we are now going to be hit relatively hard on the fact that we've been so safe all year long, so presumably lower levels of immunity alongst us?

Either that, or Covid has finally made it past that tractor on the A12 to meet us.....

I'm pretty sure if they'd done the opposite and shut schools and let people carry on shopping/going to pubs there would have been a similar drop in R rate.

It's about overall contacts/people mixing, not one individual area/risk/setting.

The govt have chosen to prioritise childrens' education over the economy. They have the power to make such choices. I'm sure the education will do them the world of good when there's no jobs to apply for for the next dacade!

Does anyone know if there's data available on how many asymptomatic pupils were picked up during the mass testing in Liverpool? I remember speculation on here that young people with covid were more likely to go undetected as they often have no or less common symptoms, and it would be interesting to see whether data from the pilot backs that.

At universities only 10% of people with Covid had symptoms so I'd expect something similar in secondaries - especially in the upper half of the school.

The government won't give secondary schools the rapid tests because they know it will look bad politically when there's loads more cases identified.

I suspect that case numbers will continue to drop in the run up to Christmas, even when lockdown ends and stores reopen.

It won't necessarily be because people aren't catching and spreading it, though. I think people will want to avoid isolating and just won't be tested.

I feel very relieved with this news this morning that it means effectively that schools now will not close again. So the close schools brigade might as well give up.

Yes there are nuances, cases may have continued to rise in certain age groups, I haven't looked in detail. But, the lockdown has worked, and I am sure that any further lockdown in January will mirror this one. Hopefully by the time that is over vaccination will have started to reduce hospitalisation rates and parents can breathe easy again.

@notevenat20

What a doom and gloom thread notevenat20

But the topic is about really good news!

Well, it might be, if it wasn't based upon flawed data.

Taken from the latest react study

“While previously all age groups were experiencing a rise in infections, now most are seeing a fall, with the exception of children between the ages of 5 and 17 where positive tests are increasing. This trend could be linked to schools remaining open during the current lockdown, in contrast with the first national lockdown, the researchers suggest. In those aged 13-17, the prevalence is now over 2% or 1 in 50 testing positive.”

I was one of the people who was angry about the schools being left open. Unfortunately you haven't been able to convince me that the schools didn't play a huge part in the spread of the virus.

Things are not as bad now, since they've been forced to have much stricter rules, but still there are countless bubble closures in my area. So much so that whole schools are closed.

@Almostslimjim

How do you know? The schools don’t tell parents anything unless it affects their year groups.

Depends on the school. We get a text every time a bubble closes.

We get a weekly email with number of cases in school so far.

Very low (2)

The biggest worry Government will have is students returning from Cities back to their suburban towns and reseeding the virus into naive populations. This will be masked for a period of time, due to the inherent reduction of R due to School holiday shutdown. The infection lag will not be apparent until January.

Re op haven’t looked at detail but very glad it’s possible with schools open.

Posting this for the 4th time, yet to get a response from people blaming the schools for everything;

My area (just outside greater Manchester) hit rates of about 500 per 100000 in October, we’re now white on the map so very few cases. It has one large secondary and five primaries - there’s been a smattering of year groups out throughout the schools, mostly before half term, but they’ve been largely open. Here at least it seems the lockdown has worked (or we’ve hit herd immunity, unlikely) - so it was mostly adults spreading covid, not the kids... They’re not large modern buildings either, just standard schools. Half term was a week, cases started to fall before (probably due to tier 2) and continued afterwards. Now we’re at virtually 0 cases in the area.

@Fredocorleone. I was going to stand on he copdock roundabout with a placard saying 'go away COVID'!

But some schools are struggling increasingly so I'm not sure 8f you're calling it a bit quickly

DS1's school (secondary) was told to shut for deep cleaning last week. They were already dropping to a 4 day week because of staff shortages.
It's reopen for keyworkers and EHCP until mid week when it will reopen.
Also a primary school in the same town was told to shut for deep cleaning.
This is in a Tier 2 (before and after lockdown) county.

@juggler82 you posted the same thing word for word on a different thread and I already responded to say that I disagree - based on my experience - that it is mainly adults spreading the virus to kids, because at my kids schools it spread widely through year groups from pupil to pupil. But there's no proof is there? My anecdata, your anecdata. Also 'kids' is a wide term isn't it? You can't compare the spreading power of an asymptomatic 5 year old to a 16 year old.

Those saying rates have plummeted - they haven't really. They've gone from really high to high. Opening up anything will cause cases to increase again and schools will continue to play their part in this.

@CallmeAngelina of course the figures will show a rise in school children as they are the only ones that have been mixing during lockdown. Even with this cases are now on a very sharp decline.

Well my friend has her son in EYFS at home again after 2 weeks isolation from positive classmate 3 days back and now 3 days off because teacher is positive (so will have been off a month since starting school in Sept).

At my DCs secondary school there have been a lot of burst bubbles and the regularity seems to be increasing. A secondary school locally to us has had to close completely due to staff illness (Covid).

I'm glad that schools have been able to remain open but you are talking bollocks if you think they aren't contributing to the continued spread of Covid. Maybe go and ask the parents in Hull OP?

Anywhere with lots of people mixing increases the cases.

my kids primary hasn't had a single bubble close since it opened It varies so much, I have 3 GSs at 3 schools, one school seems to regularly have bubbles bursting and a year group being off, one school has had no outbreaks and the 3rd has 80% off classes off school at the moment. I don't think quoting one schools tells anyone much.

Apologies, I didn’t see your reply. I’m aware I’ve reposted it. Can you explain how the numbers here have dropped so dramatically if it’s the schools driving the spread? The numbers - from 500 per 100000 to possibly 0 with schools open do not lie. It is not anecdotal, no personal stories here.

See the results section of www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/imperial_react1_r7_interim.pdf

They looked at swabs between the 13th and 24th of November and then based on that window have estimated an R rate based on those swabs.

It's interesting research, but doesn't suggest what you're claiming it does regarding schools.

This feels like one of those situations where someone with their own opinions searches for anything to justify their opinion.

A lot of people, including children aren't showing the main symptoms (I tested positive without them), so we don't know accurately how many children in schools have the virus or are passing it along to others.

I do feel like once it is in a school, it's like the floodgates being open. It isn't just one class being off, it slowly goes through many of them. Which schools are getting it or aren't is merely down to luck, nothing more.

@MarshaBradyo - if it’s parents giving covid to children and schools have nothing to do with it, then how do you explain some schools having several children already isolating due to class closure subsequently testing positive rather than it remaining an isolated case that forces closure of a bubble; and schools being unequally affected, with those badly affected finding it all spirals quite rapidly once it has got going?

[quote Walkaround]@MarshaBradyo - if it’s parents giving covid to children and schools have nothing to do with it, then how do you explain some schools having several children already isolating due to class closure subsequently testing positive rather than it remaining an isolated case that forces closure of a bubble; and schools being unequally affected, with those badly affected finding it all spirals quite rapidly once it has got going?[/quote]
I’m not sure why you are quoting me as my point was I’m glad R can be below 1 even with schools open.

Many posts claimed this would not be possible earlier.

Very relieved that is not the case.

Now schools can remain open and we can see a reduction in numbers.