Will those blaming schools for the rise in cases admit they were wrong?

[notevenat20]

R is now around 0.71 and the case numbers are dropping rapidly (hooray!). It seems obvious this huge improvement has been caused by the lockdown. But schools were open the whole time. It's also therefore clear that schools cannot have been the main cause of the second wave.

Agree. Obviously there will be some spread in schools but yes it’s clear from data across the world that schools being open are not the main cause of spread/waves.

You might see the number 0.88 for R online but this seems to mix the period before and after lockdown so averaging apples and pears.
It's 0.71 if you just look at the period since lockdown.

The hardcore "shut the schools and stay the fuck in the house" lot are never going to accept that, @notevenat20. Brace yourself for lots of anec-data about how they're falling like flies at their local secondary school.

I don't quite get your logic there. Surely it is possible for lockdown to cause a drop in cases but for schools to still have been the main cause or at least a major cause of the second wave? Because other contact and social mixing between the two lockdownswill have majorly contributed to the second wave too.

Fwiw I'm a teacher, have not been saying schools should close, and am certainly no expert on what proportion of cases have been caused by schools being open, but I don't think your conclusion is necessarily right.

And that lot should stop lumping all schools together! Primary schools and secondary schools are totally different kettle of fish

it's rife in schools riiiiiiife (dooooooom)

my kids primary hasn't had a single bubble close since it opened (central london)

Hmmmm, I'm not sure the lock downs had much effect at all. I think the virus was slowing anyway. I think it does its own thing and nothing much we're doing is effecting it.

I don't believe schools are a big contributor. But we're told social settings aren't either - so where is the major spread? Is it more likely there's a mild spread over all aspects of life, rather than one big contributor.

At the least, I’d hope all the people saying “this is a pointless lockdown without closing schools, cases won’t fall without closing schools” are feeling relieved.

R is not 0.71. What are you on about.

@TinyTear

And that lot should stop lumping all schools together! Primary schools and secondary schools are totally different kettle of fish

it's rife in schools riiiiiiife (dooooooom)

my kids primary hasn't had a single bubble close since it opened (central london)

@TinyTear definitely! Our primary school has had 3 bubbles out but only one child had a positive test (year 6). Also London.

I agree. Sadly the 'close the schools, they're not saaafffeee' brigade won't agree because it doesn't fit with their narrative.

I always thought the point was we could shut down the economy and keep schools or shut down schools and keep the economy and the end result would be much the same but we couldnt do both. Ultimatley cases are still spreading in the bit we kept open and when we open up the other bits it will spread there too.

Are the case numbers dropping rapidly in every age group?
Or is there an age group where case numbers are still rising?

Extra points if you can guess which age group this is.

2 days ago R was between 0.9 and 1.

To be honest I've seen more people claiming everyone (especially teachers) want to close all the schools than I have posters saying that. It seems to be a rather silly assertion designed to deliberately dismiss any posters who have reasonable concerns about education and want schools to be open in a way that is safe for pupils, staff and communities.

It may be anecdata but my children's school has just had its first two termtime cases, in Y10. There were two cases in Y8 over half term. That's been it, and other local schools have been similar. The school has been strict with mask wearing indoors at all times other than in lessons, year bubble areas including outdoors and staggered starts and finishes, which are a nuisance. But they've done very well to get to end November before having to send anyone home as a close contact. So I'm certainly sceptical that schools are necessarily the driver.

However, I wonder how much of it was actually lockdown and how much of it was just that we reached the natural peak of the wave. Not sure I'm convinced that we have the power to alter the course of this virus very much short of a strict lockdown till vaccines are ready, which I definitely wouldn't advocate.

Cases still rising in children.
Five positive cases in my primary school including myself who tested positive today. I have been isolating since the first case so mine certainly came from school. Sadly this isn’t a narrative it’s my life

And that’s simply cases in my class not across the school.

From the articles I read this morning, it appeared that the drop in cases was among older people, while they still continue to rise in children. Which, essentially was the point of closing other business and keeping schools open.

bathsh3ba

How do you know? The schools don’t tell parents anything unless it affects their year groups. And the kids don’t know.

I work in a school and live in the same community. Local people are aghast when l tell them the school has had 15 cases. They all think it’s 2 or 3

Taken from the latest react study

“ While previously all age groups were experiencing a rise in infections, now most are seeing a fall, with the exception of children between the ages of 5 and 17 where positive tests are increasing. This trend could be linked to schools remaining open during the current lockdown, in contrast with the first national lockdown, the researchers suggest. In those aged 13-17, the prevalence is now over 2% or 1 in 50 testing positive.”

So that would suggest that schools are playing a role in transmission. That’s not to say schools should close (although I can see an argument for more blended learning in secondary if funded to do it well) but I don’t think the fact schools probably play a role can be denied

And when its risen to high enough levels in children we are going to send them all to their great nans for christmas and take them to the pub for a treat.

I've not seen many people saying we should close schools. I've seen a lot of people (perfectly sensibly imo) suggesting they should be made safer. There's only so much a school can do when essentially they are cramming a large number of people into a fairly small space.

(DS's sixth form has this week said that students can wear coats and gloves to lessons. The windows are all wide open because - ventilation. Which is about the only thing the school can do.)

How do you know? The schools don’t tell parents anything unless it affects their year groups.

Depends on the school. We get a text every time a bubble closes.

Where do you get that figure from?

Cases are definitely rising in local schools

Well no. Schools can still be responsible, the lockdown has simply prevented it travelling further.

It does appear the to be stay at home mums at school wanting this and it’s the same ones who let their kids stay home with a sniffle usually. Definitely a type. I’d feel slightly happier if dd1 (secondary) worked online for the last week of school so I could feel safer visiting my parents for Christmas but I’ll trust the school’s judgment as they have been superb throughout. Primary school risk seems minimal.