Government denial over schools issues will cause deaths this Christmas

[noblegiraffe]

I just can't get my head around how utterly crazy the government Christmas policy is.

Secondary school kids are the most infected subset of the population with it now estimated that more than 1 in 50 of them are positive. As they are children, most of them will never be tested as they either are asymptomatic, or will display different symptoms to the main three that are required to trigger a test (councils are overruling this in some parts of England and asking parents to use a more sensible list of symptoms).

Schools mostly break up on 18th December, 5 days before the Christmas relaxation period begins and people start taking advantage of this to mix with other households indoors, in poorly ventilated small rooms, which as scientists warn, is a terrible idea. twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1331931594400149506?s=21

Closing schools a week earlier (or moving online) would give 2 weeks out of school before Christmas day, which would reduce the infection rate in school children significantly (we saw a dip in the infection rate just in one week over half term) and make it safer for them to mix with other households, particularly if people took advantage of those two weeks to significantly reduce their contacts and other risks.

Some schools took it upon themselves to protect their own communities by changing the term dates to close a week earlier. The DfE has overruled this and forced them to stay open.
schoolsweek.co.uk/overruled-dfes-sweeping-coronavirus-powers-force-trust-into-early-christmas-holiday-u-turn/

Because of the tier system, if families don't get together at Christmas during the relaxation period, when their children pose a much higher risk, they will not be able to see their families properly for Christmas at all. Essentially Christmas is being funnelled into a time period which is insanely risky due to it coming shortly after children mixing freely in unsafe schools with significant numbers of undiscovered infections.

I know the DfE have been reading this board. I understand why you want schools open, but lying to people about the risks as you have is dangerous and immoral. Transparency is needed so that people can make their own informed risk assessments, not propaganda about 'safe schools' and 'saving Christmas'.

"Secondary school kids are the most infected subset of the population with it now estimated that more than 1 in 50 of them are positive."

From the OP. That's why the discussion is about the risks/benefits of keeping secondary schools open/closing them.

We're talking about the most infected group of people in the country.

The suggestion that reducing spread among this population and thus reducing it spreading into the wider community is a valid one to consider I'd have thought.

I have no issue with considering it (although I think it’s been covered quite thoroughly already!) but I am against it.

The disadvantages are too grave.

With covid illness/SI, I don't think anyone has the right to decide how long their child is off school do they? It's 14 days SI minimum.

The suggestion about closing schools is, as has been said umpteen times, to reduce spread in what is already the most infected population of the country (secondary school aged children and their staff) and hence reduce spread through the community and across the country when people travel around at Xmas.

Covid is a public health issue as its so contagious. We, along with the rest of the world, did close schools for that reason for many months earlier this year.

Christina I think we are more aligned on secondary post Christmas rather than primary pre. I’m considering it, one week remote for secondary is not as bad as what was put in op but not entirely convinced.

However have you changed tack in childcare issue?

Earlier - It's a mystery to me how people think that a short-term planned closure of schools would be an impossible childcare headache

But taking an individual child out is harder?

No christina. That’s not what I mean.

I do not mean si. That is as you say 14 days.

An approach at the moment that doesn’t penalise parents or children is needed. That doesn’t mean close schools.

I think with Mental Health it is incorrect to say majority of childrens mental health is suffering as a result of being back in school.

I can really only impact the mental health of my children.

For them, at this point of time, it is better for their mental health to be in school. It may change if they have repeated isolations - its not happened yet so I really don't know.

I do know that 1 child coped better with lockdown than the other. I do know we had a tough few months which my youngest who refused to leave the house or even have a window open. That had quite a bad impact on the family as a whole.

We worked hard at it, and by the end of lockdown we were in a better place. Obv not always as easy.

I am of course concerned if they or any of us catch Covid. But I make sure I do not project my concerns on to my children.

Again, its easier for me to do that as we have been impacted less.

I really can't say how that may change if we start feeling the impact more.

But I do object to some of the comments on here, which make assumptions about all children.

Exactly - it’s just different depending on different children and different schools.

So I have no objection to an individual family deciding it’s best for their child not to be in school. But schools shouldn’t be closed on that basis alone.

No-one is in a position to really and thoroughly consider the benefits/risks of broad mitigating factors like closing schools though. That's the point.

Given that there hasn't been routine testing, no-one is really sure of how many pupils in which schools are infected.

There was a significant dip in positive cases amongst secondary school aged pupils randomly sampled by the ONS after half-term and a rise subsequently which wasn't apparent in other age groups, from toddlers to older people.

One could extrapolate from this that a national closing of schools is one way of reducing community transmission of covid, esp before people travel all over the country.

My concern is that not considering how to reduce transmission as much as possible now is going to create more problems in the New Year tbh.

Marsha my take on childcare issues has been consistent. It's a bloody nightmare for working parents, some who have been affected more adversely than others.

I don’t think anyone is denying closing schools would halt transmission of covid.

The problem is that isn’t the only thing closing schools would do. That’s where we disagree. We have to weigh up the harm and some posters feel more harm is caused by keeping schools open and some posters feel more harm is caused by closing them.

Both views are OK.

christinarossetti19 You views on childcare have taken a full turn around. I’ve been chuckling reading them.

I have to say one of the things that has irked me most throughout this whole shitshow is the absolute refusal of some people (not exclusive to MN, IRL too) to recognise that we are all individuals and not everyone's circumstances are the same. That happens on both sides of the divide as well.

For instance, I am intending to pull my son out of school at the end of this week to isolate him prior to christmas so that he can safely see family. I also intend to keep him at home for 2 weeks at the other end of the christmas so as to to allow him to return to school safely. For my son, who is four, it is more important for him to be able to see family than to attend school. For that reason (haven't decided yet) I might keep him off school until the Spring.

Now some people would think that was cruel, that he needs social interaction, that he'll fall behind etc, because their children would be dreadfully affected by not being in school. I completely believe them. Yet when I've said my son is dreadfully affected by not seeing his family in person, I get told that's over dramatic, that he needs to be resilient, that it really isn't the end of the world to not see or hug grandparents or other family members in 9 months.

There is no understanding that we are all different. Some people may genuinely not be bothered if they see family at christmas or not "oh it's only for one year what's the big deal". Some people may be extremely bothered but but won't do it anyway because they don't feel it's safe. Fine.

It is important to me, and therefore I will take steps to do it as safely as I possibly can. I don't think that I should be sneered at or just told to get on with it. I don't sneer at others who feel differently.

I should add that I totally recognise I'm lucky to be in a position to pull my son out of school early.

Nicknacky no they haven't. I've been very clear that childcare is a bloody nightmare for working parents.

sandy what you're doing sounds very sensible for your family and from the point of view of reducing possible transmission of covid.

I think that’s very true sandy: again, it really is about personal choice and personal weighing up of decisions.

One person making a different decision to me is not a reflection on me.

I don’t think routine testing in schools will ever be a solution to get us out. It’s a waste of resources to test millions of healthy people.

Sandyplankton I agree. Each family has their own circumstances. I think giving the country 5 days of choice will help a lot of people last the rest of the winter being very careful.

The virus is here to pass on in just the same way it has for the last 12 months. The only difference between this Christmas and last Christmas is that we know about the virus now.

Sandy yes it is totally up to you. I think on this thread a fair few have talked about individual decisions.

@Sandyplankton

I have to say one of the things that has irked me most throughout this whole shitshow is the absolute refusal of some people (not exclusive to MN, IRL too) to recognise that we are all individuals and not everyone's circumstances are the same. That happens on both sides of the divide as well.

For instance, I am intending to pull my son out of school at the end of this week to isolate him prior to christmas so that he can safely see family. I also intend to keep him at home for 2 weeks at the other end of the christmas so as to to allow him to return to school safely. For my son, who is four, it is more important for him to be able to see family than to attend school. For that reason (haven't decided yet) I might keep him off school until the Spring.

Now some people would think that was cruel, that he needs social interaction, that he'll fall behind etc, because their children would be dreadfully affected by not being in school. I completely believe them. Yet when I've said my son is dreadfully affected by not seeing his family in person, I get told that's over dramatic, that he needs to be resilient, that it really isn't the end of the world to not see or hug grandparents or other family members in 9 months.

There is no understanding that we are all different. Some people may genuinely not be bothered if they see family at christmas or not "oh it's only for one year what's the big deal". Some people may be extremely bothered but but won't do it anyway because they don't feel it's safe. Fine.

It is important to me, and therefore I will take steps to do it as safely as I possibly can. I don't think that I should be sneered at or just told to get on with it. I don't sneer at others who feel differently.

Many of us on here have been advocating for an approach of personal responsibility, which is what you are doing. I have no issue with that!

The only thing I did say regarding this is that I would feel sorry for a teacher having to work right up to Christmas in school if only a handful of DC actually come in, so I suggested that schools should be allowed to poll parents in advance and make their own plans accordingly. It was pointed out to me that it is unlikely this would happen as so many are opposed to the closures.

The DfE won't let schools do that PrivateD00r.

See the link in the OP as to what happened when a MAT tried to take autonomous action re closing its schools early this term.

@iVampire

I am CEV, and my DMum is both CEV and very elderly

My DD is just about to finish 2 weeks SI. The school has delivered very good remote learning, and I really wish she didn’t have to go back in in person and be in the school environment again just in time to have another contact with a positive case and have to SI for Xmas. Confirmed cases in the school have been rising in the past week and getting on for half the school is SI - even if DD is in, its likely that some of her teachers won’t be

It does all seem like a nonsense to me. And I cannot work out what is safe to do in terms of Christmas visits. I think it might have to be a tier appropriate day trip, not using the Christmas concession

It is all rather a mess

The Christmas exception does make it hard, because you feel tempted to go against your own personal risk assessments and sense of precautions! We have basically decided that we will not do any visits and will just have a quiet Christmas at home. It is a shame, but we'll try to do some proper family meet ups in the New Year, once things are better and we can be a bit more chilled and enjoy it properly.

On the other hand, I've been extremely fortunate that my DC have had not one single positive case in school - and nor has my husband's (different) primary school. They have both had a few kids off for a day or so awaiting test results, and my husband had a kid off for two weeks because their childminder tested positive. But it has felt very "safe". We are lucky though, I know!

But we can understand why, I hope.

@Welcometonowhere

I don’t think anyone is denying closing schools would halt transmission of covid.

The problem is that isn’t the only thing closing schools would do. That’s where we disagree. We have to weigh up the harm and some posters feel more harm is caused by keeping schools open and some posters feel more harm is caused by closing them.

Both views are OK.

I’m not convinced myself, if we are also allowing people to cram into Shopping streets (Oxford street was appalling in the summer, at Christmas 😫) and Christmas markets and have shops, cinemas, theatres, pubs, restaurants open. It’s Christmas, people don’t stay in. These will all cause the infection rate to rise, I’m expecting a change in tack in January, which is traditionally a slow month for businesses anyway.

I agree with your general post though!

Yes, it's a very worrying prospect, permitting the virus to continue spreading amongst the population that we know are already the most infected (secondary school pupils and staff), then permit people to travel all over the country spending protracted periods of time indoors, then take the virus back into schools where we know it will spread like wildfire because that's what's happened since September.

I feel very concerned about what will happen in the New Year, although can completely understand why people want to and will travel to visit their families.

We won't be travelling. I can't face the anxiety about the possibility of unknowingly spreading the virus.

I've had 5 emails from my children's secondary school over the past two days about positive cases in y7,9,10 and 12 and they have now closed y7 due to multiple cases.
It is madness to keep schools open right up until the end of term and for this spread to continue.

Some schools took it upon themselves to protect their own communities by changing the term dates to close a week earlier. The DfE has overruled this and forced them to stay open

Well, the DfE might not approve, but most of our school now has a de facto term date change because as of this morning 42 Year 13s have been told to self isolate. It’s a small sixth form so that’s about 1/3. However, after receiving the information in an email yesterday, it looks like at least half of the rest have decided stay home too, and I don’t blame them. All lessons are available on Teams as standard because so many have been off since before half term (it’s Y13s third stint at self isolating). It was supposed to be their A Level mock exams next week. So school have decided all the Y13s will be at home and mocks will be strictly timed, online.
Year 11 is still out on its ‘firebreak’ - their mocks were cancelled wholesale because rolling self isolating groups meant they ran out of time to fit them in before the A Level mocks were due to run. And Y8 have all been out too, unsure when they’re due back. We’re breaking up early anyway, and not due back til 10th Jan for legitimate, preplanned reasons (days shaved off other holidays to make up the time). So my Y13 will now not be back in school til January. Fingers crossed that my Y12 doesn’t get a second lot of self isolation (it would their second but the Y12 group’s third lot of SI) and stays in til the end of term. But there’s a lot out and what with the late start to next term I am hoping it will give us enough breathing space to go back in January with a clean (or cleaner, at least) slate.
As mentioned, our early finish/late start was planned a long time ago and lots of people weren’t happy at the time, but it’s unavoidable, but now it feels like we accidentally got ‘lucky’. DH is ECV and I’m CV - I feel like I’m constantly taking part in Russian roulette.