What figures determine which tier you will be?

[3littlewords]

How is is decided what tier areas are placed in? Is the R rate ? The cases per 100000? Mixture of both?

Does anyone think their previous tier will change after lockdown whether it be up or down a tier?

We will be in 3. Fucking bastards.

@3littlewords mixture and also the direction of travel of cases and how the hospitals are coping

Don't know. As a larger family, the rule of 6 excludes us from meeting other people anyway. FFS.

It’s not just about the numbers. The county council can request a higher tier as they did in Essex.

I'm curious about this. We were tier 1 when under100 was good and 100 looked scary. Now we're over 200 with more deaths...

Im not sure how this will work if deaths havent actually reduced.

I’m in a London borough that’s quite low incidence but I assume London will be 2 as a whole.

The size of the Conservative vote I think has a bearing. Notice how Rishi Sunak's constituency has not been in Tier 3, for example.

In Scotland it appears the cut off between level3 and level 4 is 150/100k

Cut off level 2-3 is approx 50/100k.

I would imagine England will be different as that would put most of the country in level 3+

Just for info as I think they are starting to get closer in their systems.

I doubt there will be many (if any) areas in tier 1 and I suspect tier 3 will be stricter than the old tier 3 or there will be a tier 4. All so that we can have a relaxation around Christmas which will probably leave us facing lockdown again in January. On the plus side today’s news about the Oxford vaccine is very promising so perhaps by March we will be unlocking permanently.

The tiers will be reviewed every fortnight against five criteria — overall case numbers in all age groups; case numbers among the over-60s; the rate of increase or decrease in local prevalence; number of cases per 100,000; and NHS capacity

According to telegraph on Twitter

I'm in Liverpool so was the original tier 3 im very hopeful to have at least moved down 1 tier

We will be in 3...out of lockdown into lockdown. I am so depressed and angry. There is no point. What's the point in getting up to go to work to come home and that's it's. No life.

I was just wondering about this. I’m near Liverpool, we were in tier 3 but cases have come down a lot since then and the R rate in the north west is supposedly the lowest in England at 0.8-1.0. Looking at the document just published on gov website, tier 2 looks far preferable than tier 3!

We were tier 1 before at 45 cases per 100000 - now at 145 per 100000 but seems way below the country average which is 210. I really hope we can stay in tier 1.

I'm in leicester, our cases are still high and we are the only place to have been in lockdown since March. I imagine we will be tier 3. I can't stand it. I was coping ok until recently but it is just endless for us

Where I am we have a rate of around 60/100000, which has been stable for couple weeks now. So hoping for tier 1 but we're also in Essex, so maybe not

In Scotland this shows how they calculated it.

Here’s the page fir the 17-11 thinking and supporting info

www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-allocation-of-levels-to-local-authorities-17-november-2020/

I'm Leeds, we were tier 3, our rates have fallen loads and the hospitals are coping- but I bet we're still too high for tier 2.

The annoying thing is, we might be there by next week- and it seems that so far movement between tiers only goes up not down!!!

@nosswith Essex is a 100% Tory county and was put in tier 2 despite having low numbers.

Didn’t mean to add that random number.
Here’s the graphic.

@Daisypod

I'm in leicester, our cases are still high and we are the only place to have been in lockdown since March. I imagine we will be tier 3. I can't stand it. I was coping ok until recently but it is just endless for us

Leicester too. I think tier 3 to begin with but hoping will be brought down to tier 2 after 14 days as cases are finally dropping. The city is on its last legs at the moment and I'm desperate to get out and support the bars and restaurants.

Daisypod
“I'm in leicester, our cases are still high and we are the only place to have been in lockdown since March. I imagine we will be tier 3. I can't stand it. I was coping ok until recently but it is just endless for us“

Hang on in there. The vaccines which are around the corner now have changed everything! We have lived in this strange world for 8 months now, and we never knew how we could get out of it, but in the next coming months things will start to change. We have an exit plan now and it is coming soon.

Even those that cannot safely take a vaccine will be much safer when the majority of other people have taken it I’m sure.

I wonder if they will do blanket county tiers or whether they will divide by area..

We're in a county with such wide variance.. At one end, one particular area was actually the second highest in the country last week whereas there's others which are right at the bottom. My area is roughly in the middle but still below the average in the country as a whole.

@AuntieMarys are you in Swale by any chance? I am. I'm so overloaded with it all I can't get up the energy to feel anything much now but I see we are now highest in England per 100,000 cases.

Liam Thorpe of the Liverpool Echo is saying that local leadership of the Liverpool City Region is hopeful of being placed in Tier 2.

More here:
www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/city-region-leaders-confident-merseyside-19329107

The case rate for each council in the City Region is as follows:

Liverpool 205.2 per 100,000
Knowsley 206.1
Sefton 200.4
Halton 225.6
St Helens 246.4
Wirral 159.3

The national average is around 190 atm I believe.

A note of caution here: there has been a sustained drop in the number of cases in each council, the R looks like its below 1 atm and they have the new testing facilities in place unlike other areas so they might be an outlier if they do go into T2. I would say if you are in an area with numbers higher then you are probably looking at T3.

The reason Liverpool might miss out on T2 is the hospital situation. The number in hospital is still high, and since the lockdowns are ultimately about hospital beds not deaths then this might be the spanner in the works. (Halton is particularly awkward as its sending all its patients to Warrington as Warrington and Halton have a shared NHS trust - and the figures there are still higher than in April).

I think the government probably will put Liverpool City Region in T2 more for political reasons than because of the figures.

So I seriously can't see most of the North getting out of T3 tbh.

And if your council figures are higher than Liverpool, I wouldn't fancy your chances of anything but T3....