What figures determine which tier you will be?

[3littlewords]

How is is decided what tier areas are placed in? Is the R rate ? The cases per 100000? Mixture of both?

Does anyone think their previous tier will change after lockdown whether it be up or down a tier?

Im in Braintree. Cleverlys constiituency. So we were put in tier 2 because of ECC request too

Anyone want to share their ideas on Newcastle Gateshead Northumberland..High but going down lots? Bit worried going to get lumped in with teeside..

Just looking at Liverpool, the positivity rate is now running at just 1.8%.

This is a MASSIVE drop. At its peak it was running at over 20% in mid October (which was the highest in the country).

To put into context anything over 5% is regarded as 'out of control' by WHO. So this is a real success. (I'm surprised at the positivity rate being so good).

With the R below 1 and positivity rates that low and cases dropping like stones, I guess this is why the City leaders are optimistic about where they will be in 10 days time, with some justification.

However I don't think the number of cases in hospital are dropping as quickly - this has a two to three week lag on cases I think. So I think the worst case scenario for Liverpool is realistically out of T3 by mid December. But as I say I think there is some argument that the government WILL say T2 straight away for political reasons as an incentive to other places.

FWIW, given the positivity rate is so low that DOES suggest that compliance rates have been pretty high in recent weeks...

Hmm. I'm in Nottingham. Still dark blue but cases have massively decreased since September. Who knows. Expecting tier 3 but hoping for tier 2, cases down 22% from previous week.

@clareykb

Anyone want to share their ideas on Newcastle Gateshead Northumberland..High but going down lots? Bit worried going to get lumped in with teeside..

Northumberland. Rate 273.9 with a weekly decrease of 8.5% Gateshead Rate 322.7 with weekly decrease of 31.1% Newcastle 391 with weekly decrease of 13.1% North Tyneside 347.3 with weekly decrease of 16% South Tyneside 382.8 with weekly decrease of 7.5%

All look too high above the national average to be anything but T3 for a while yet imho. Gateshead is looking best but those declines aren't enough either - need to be bigger - and Gateshead is likely to be grouped with the rest of the area for purposes of tiers due to its close proximately.

Might struggle to be out of T3 before January on those figures unless the number of cases drops at a steeper rate.

@RedToothBrush how do you think they will define the areas this time though? District level, county or whole region? Previously they even had some parts of districts, but I thought they wanted regional consistency this time

I hope they decide on tiers before all the unis start end-of-term mass testing and find hundreds of asymptomatic cases

Given how much animosity there is between the govt and Andy Burnham I am very sure that the whole of Greater Manchester will stay in tier 3 (which is actually a lot worse than old tier 3 as all hospitality remains closed except for takeaways)
The rate in the borough of GM that I live in has plummeted and is now lower than the England average, but Andy has previously said he wants consistency across the whole of the region, so it will be very frustrating and cause a lot of resentment

The government said the overall rate (which is easily available) and the rate for those over 60s. Mr Johnson was asked about whether it would be by district, and waffled on suggesting not the case.

I think we will be tier 3...I was on the verge of tears all the way home... From my school, where we've had loads of cases.

What I don't understand is all the hospitality etc will be closed... But shops open?! Really?

I don't even care about be shops etc, I just want to be able to go for a walk with my friends and my kids, or see anyone apart from my colleagues who are going batshit with stress, or the kids, who don't seem to care...I'm on edge all day trying to distance, trying to teach in a tiny room without a mask... I'm a single parent and there's no respite, I'm either at work, or at home and can only take my own children out, can't meet anyone while I have them. Can't meet friends when I don't have them, because they have children. Too scared to see my parents because I might pass it on.

I don't want to go to fucking home bargains and primark, I want to have something else to live for as part from this incessant loneliness.

It will be at least County wide unless there is a particular geographical reason to do different (basically are there big hills and snow - do you live in Derbyshire?).

It then depends on who is in charge of over seeing Public Health in the area. So your city regions have a combined strategy so are likely to be treated as single entities. Counties that are not part of larger groupings are likely to be treated a bit differently - again it probably depends a little on geography / patterns of travel (So for example if you are in Nottinghamshire, you will probably be lumped with Nottingham due to where people live and work as before).

I think it will be groups of counties rather than purely on a council level as a general rule unless there is a really compelling argument to do differently. Simply because if you've got a high number of cases in one area and the neighbouring one is low, you still might want to keep it in the higher tier because of hospital pressure / need to move patients to the area with lower cases.

It does look as if a lot of areas which previously had the highest numbers and had tier 3 restrictions have now reduced a lot.

My area OTOH was tier 1 until very shortly before lockdown even though cases were rising . From what I've seen of figures the last week numbers may be stabilising but certainly not reducing yet so we are pretty much certain for the new tier 3

@ceeveebee

Given how much animosity there is between the govt and Andy Burnham I am very sure that the whole of Greater Manchester will stay in tier 3 (which is actually a lot worse than old tier 3 as all hospitality remains closed except for takeaways) The rate in the borough of GM that I live in has plummeted and is now lower than the England average, but Andy has previously said he wants consistency across the whole of the region, so it will be very frustrating and cause a lot of resentment

Pretty sure GM is staying T3 for at least another two weeks.

Numbers in every county still are too high to drop it. Only Trafford is getting near where they might consider it on the basis of its overall average, and tbh its still looking v high in certain hotspots (Lower Irlam and Cadishead still at 546.3, Irlam at 462.6 and Hale Barns at 526.6).

I don't think Andy has much of an argument if you look at the map of the NW and look at the purple patches.... There is a reasonable argument to consider taking the Liverpool City Region and possibly Warrington out before GM which isn't remotely controversial.

@Theghostofchristmasarse that sounds tough. But under the new tier 3 you are allowed to meet outdoors in groups of up to 6, and go for a walk in a park or public garden (depending how many are in your household). Also could you form a support bubble or a childcare bubble?

So annoyed if it is county wide as I am west Kent and my local rates are all so low but I’ll get lumped in with swale and Thanet which are super high

Yep I’m in Trafford, bordering onto Cheshire. Cases down over 50% in past two weeks and looking at the most recent 3 days (that are still in the time lag) it’s continued to fall and is ranking 150th in the country.
(There’s just the one purple area now (Hale Barns)- Irlam and Cadishead are not part of Trafford, they’re in Salford)

@Waxonwaxoff0 notts here too, I m hopeful for tier 2, cases have dropped a lot. I just want to know which of our festive activities will be allowed!! No plans to mix households but lots of festive fun booked and probably cancelled..,

@RedToothBrush thanks, we were tier 1 before, and probably on numbers if it was our district or county alone I would expect tier 2 on current numbers, but as part of the wider West Midlands I wondered if we would end up as tier 3.

@ceeveebee

Yep I’m in Trafford, bordering onto Cheshire. Cases down over 50% in past two weeks and looking at the most recent 3 days (that are still in the time lag) it’s continued to fall and is ranking 150th in the country. (There’s just the one purple area now (Hale Barns)- Irlam and Cadishead are not part of Trafford, they’re in Salford)

I stand corrected.

On that basis its probably more of a difficult argument to make but I think thats possibly one more for Graham rather than Andy though...

I still think given how the city connects its impossible to remove 9 out of the 10 councils without it being a magnet for people to travel and just prolong the problem in the end anyway.

@shittingthreeeyedraven

So annoyed if it is county wide as I am west Kent and my local rates are all so low but I’ll get lumped in with swale and Thanet which are super high

The problem with Kent isn't simply the raw case numbers. Its the direction of travel:

Ashford 0% change in the last seven days
Bexley 0.8% change in the last seven days
Canterbury up 36.8% in the last seven days
Dartford up 1.5% in the last seven days
Dover up 52% in the last seven days
Folkestone and Hythe up 49.7% in the last seven days
Gravesham up 43.6% in the last seven days
Maidstone up 33.9% in the last seven days
Medway up 50.1% in the last seven days
Sevenoaks up 23% in the last seven days
Swale up 51.6% in the last seven days
Thanet up 11.9% in the last seven days
Tonbridge and Malling up 10.9% in the last seven days
Tunbridge Wells up 18.8% in the last seven days

Hard to argue that they should be easing up restrictions too quickly on that basis. R looks far too high even in areas which currently have lower numbers (and everywhere is still above average anyway).

@ceeveebee thanks, I hadn't seen that...better than I thought... Although I'm still confused how they think these measure are harsh, when schools and shops are open, it's not going to help is it..

My childcare bubble is my parents, who do all pickups and drop offs. I don't go in the house after work as too worried about all the cases in school. I try not to see them outside of childcare, they're well, in their 60s, but both have various heath conditions.

My boyfriend is my support bubble... But I can't see him because his lodger is now terrified and has refused to allow me to be in a bubble with his household... Still goes to the shop daily though and buys weed from a random, because that's OK. 🙄

But if I can now go for a walk with someone, that helps. Just hope the weather isn't shitty... Oh, wait 😂😂

[quote HotChocolate12]@RedToothBrush thanks, we were tier 1 before, and probably on numbers if it was our district or county alone I would expect tier 2 on current numbers, but as part of the wider West Midlands I wondered if we would end up as tier 3.[/quote]
I don't think there's a lot of the West Midlands escaping T3...

I’m reckoning on tier 2 for my area, Northampton, Bedford, Milton Keynes, we are a bit varied but running at about 100-250/100,000 at the moment and a downward trend

I can see my area (Warwickshire) being tier 2, the CC we're pushing for it before this lockdown.

Dh could be in for an interesting time with work (field engineer for a brewery) as I think certain areas he covers will be t3 (which he can work in but means they can only be 1 man jobs, not 2, even though the only work they can really do in closed prem tends to need 2 people ). Hopefully he'll be able to go out doing some jobs at least part of each week, if not the usual full time!

I’m in Bristol and we were in tier one - I’m assuming tier 3 for us unfortunately. Meant to be going to centerparcs in (I assume) a lower tier area - I wonder if it will be allowed?