What figures determine which tier you will be?

[3littlewords]

How is is decided what tier areas are placed in? Is the R rate ? The cases per 100000? Mixture of both?

Does anyone think their previous tier will change after lockdown whether it be up or down a tier?

@RedToothBrush

Just looking at Liverpool, the positivity rate is now running at just 1.8%.

This is a MASSIVE drop. At its peak it was running at over 20% in mid October (which was the highest in the country).

To put into context anything over 5% is regarded as 'out of control' by WHO. So this is a real success. (I'm surprised at the positivity rate being so good).

With the R below 1 and positivity rates that low and cases dropping like stones, I guess this is why the City leaders are optimistic about where they will be in 10 days time, with some justification.

However I don't think the number of cases in hospital are dropping as quickly - this has a two to three week lag on cases I think. So I think the worst case scenario for Liverpool is realistically out of T3 by mid December. But as I say I think there is some argument that the government WILL say T2 straight away for political reasons as an incentive to other places.

FWIW, given the positivity rate is so low that DOES suggest that compliance rates have been pretty high in recent weeks...

Isn't that just due to the mass testing they're doing in Liverpool though?

If you're targeting tests towards symptomatic people you're bound to get a much higher positivity rate than if your testing is mostly done on asymptomatic people.

Of the 862 confirmed cases in the last 7 days, 243 (28.2%) were detected using Lateral Flow Testing (LFT) kits. At an assumed Covid population prevalence of 2% in Liverpool, one in five LTF positive results will be false positive. They will require confirmatory Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) testing.

So yes the mass testing is helping but they are still picking up most positives tests through the normal system.

And given it was up to 20% positive at the peak of the problem thats still a massive shift.

@Crumpety

I’m in Bristol and we were in tier one - I’m assuming tier 3 for us unfortunately. Meant to be going to centerparcs in (I assume) a lower tier area - I wonder if it will be allowed?

I think it’s as long as you don’t mix households. I hope we’re in tier 2 at least. The 1+ that rhe major came up with was crap idea.

We’re meant to go to cheddar woods with a friend but I know they’ll refund the money if we can’t mix

@Daisypod

I'm in leicester, our cases are still high and we are the only place to have been in lockdown since March. I imagine we will be tier 3. I can't stand it. I was coping ok until recently but it is just endless for us

Right here with you, Leicester lockdown lifer here too, assuming we'll be tier 3 though unfortunately. Cases in my postcode are 758/100,000 I just can't see how we could go back in at tier 2.

It will get better, it will end, this is just temporary!

@Crumpety

I’m in Bristol and we were in tier one - I’m assuming tier 3 for us unfortunately. Meant to be going to centerparcs in (I assume) a lower tier area - I wonder if it will be allowed?

It looks like its not illegal, but discouraged as previously. Which put you and where you are staying into a difficult position. It ends up being somewhat at the discretion of where you are going.

Wording on the new red sheet uses 'advise against' and 'avoid travelling outside your area' rather than stronger legal 'you must not'

I’m Essex .. I reckon tier 3 only because on an almost daily basis my daughters school has another child test positive and the infection rate has gone up by 25%
When do we find out ?

I’m east Kent and travel into Swale area for work I’m sure we will be T3 but we’re T1 prior to lockdown

But the numbers % increase in many places of Kent are looking big because they are low numbers to begin with. So where i am has gone down 25% last week but that is only 2 fewer cases. Whereas an area with 1000s of cases will look like they have very little increase despite the much higher numbers

@DramaLlama12

I’m Essex .. I reckon tier 3 only because on an almost daily basis my daughters school has another child test positive and the infection rate has gone up by 25% When do we find out ?

Thursday.

@shittingthreeeyedraven

But the numbers % increase in many places of Kent are looking big because they are low numbers to begin with. So where i am has gone down 25% last week but that is only 2 fewer cases. Whereas an area with 1000s of cases will look like they have very little increase despite the much higher numbers

Most places in Kent are now above 250 case per 100,000 though. Thats one problem. Add in how quickly its increased thats also a concern. When that happened in the NW it went up crazy fast from there.

It seems to be what the councils decide. I’m in an error of Essex with low rates and yet they forced us into tier 2...

Does anyone understand what exactly happens with the tiers when they hope to relax restrictions over Christmas? Will the tiers still be in force or will restaurants in tier 3 be allowed to open?

The rate of increase is the problem even when figures are low, because it doesn’t take long to get high figures when they are increasing so rapidly

@Crumpety

I’m in Bristol and we were in tier one - I’m assuming tier 3 for us unfortunately. Meant to be going to centerparcs in (I assume) a lower tier area - I wonder if it will be allowed?

@Crumpety

If you are tier 3 Center parcs won't even allow u in. Not even an option. People who were trying to come anyway were turned away from booking in.

More detail on the restrictions for each of the tiers

www.gov.uk/guidance/local-restriction-tiers-what-you-need-to-know#very-high-alert

Looks like they have also slightly relaxed the rules on support bubbles to cover parents with children under 1, or with a child under 5 with a disability (ie not just single adult households any more)

Thanks - looks like we will be having an Easter centerparcs break then rather than a Christmas one!

Ill be in tier 3.
Tier 3 areas to get much more testing of asymptomatic. It seems to have had a good impact in Liverpool.

Isle of Wight here. We have never come out of T1, but are at 79/100k at the mo which is our highest.

Apparently Hancock has had conversations with our MP around ensuring that the Island is treated separately to the rest of Hampshire.

@RedToothBrush in terms of the old West Midlands county area I agree on tier 3, but not for the whole West Midlands region in terms of current numbers for Shropshire, Herefordshire, Worcestershire and possibly Warwickshire too which I would have thought were more tier 2 unless they go for a whole region approach (I just want to be able to do the Christmassy things we have booked, so really don’t want tier 3 if our local numbers don’t justify it!)

They haven't always Forced whole counties into restrictions together.... Luton has been under restrictions twice but the rest of Bedfordshire was not included

@RedToothBrush

Liam Thorpe of the Liverpool Echo is saying that local leadership of the Liverpool City Region is hopeful of being placed in Tier 2.

More here:
www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/city-region-leaders-confident-merseyside-19329107

The case rate for each council in the City Region is as follows:

Liverpool 205.2 per 100,000
Knowsley 206.1
Sefton 200.4
Halton 225.6
St Helens 246.4
Wirral 159.3

The national average is around 190 atm I believe.

A note of caution here: there has been a sustained drop in the number of cases in each council, the R looks like its below 1 atm and they have the new testing facilities in place unlike other areas so they might be an outlier if they do go into T2. I would say if you are in an area with numbers higher then you are probably looking at T3.

The reason Liverpool might miss out on T2 is the hospital situation. The number in hospital is still high, and since the lockdowns are ultimately about hospital beds not deaths then this might be the spanner in the works. (Halton is particularly awkward as its sending all its patients to Warrington as Warrington and Halton have a shared NHS trust - and the figures there are still higher than in April).

I think the government probably will put Liverpool City Region in T2 more for political reasons than because of the figures.

So I seriously can't see most of the North getting out of T3 tbh.

And if your council figures are higher than Liverpool, I wouldn't fancy your chances of anything but T3....

I think there's a sense of "we've been good and cooperated with all their schemes and got our numbers to drop loads so we deserve to drop a tier" and they may well do that because they need somebody to be an example. You know like praising the first child to sit down at school so all the others will follow??? I'm dubious though, I don't really want to see our numbers go up again this side of Christmas, plus I quite like the security of testing whenever we fancy it.

[quote MercyBooth]@BunsyGirl I saw an article a while back that said Finch is begging for tier 1 after this lockdown ends. Egg on face springs to mind
Shouldnt have been so greedy.[/quote]
I so hope you are right. Quiet and dull Essex here, with far lower rates than the neighbouring county that was still in tier 1 before Lockdown 2.

@MercyBooth what a fucking idiot he is

Another reason lm glad to not live under Essex council, is Priti Patel was my MP when l lived there. I had to look at her smug mug most times l left my house, as she had a poster outside Witham Constituency Conservative Association

I was just discussing this with DH. Our county is very high but our borough is half the rate of the higher boroughs. So if based on the whole county we will definitely be in tier 3. Yet live in an area that may have lower rate than some counties that will likely be in Tier 2.

How is is decided what tier areas are placed in?
The Prime Minister this afternoon confirmed that the tiers would be decided by on five key indicators:

1. Case detection rates in all age groups.
2. Case detection rates in the over 60s.
3. The rate infections are rising or falling.
4. The positivity rate - or number of positive Covid cases as a percentage of tests carried out.
5. Pressure on the NHS, including current and projected bed occupancy.

Does anyone think their previous tier will change after lockdown whether it be up or down a tier?
I think mine will go up from tier 2 to 3 because rates are rising and because our NHS trust has cancelled all elective surgery .