What figures determine which tier you will be?

[3littlewords]

How is is decided what tier areas are placed in? Is the R rate ? The cases per 100000? Mixture of both?

Does anyone think their previous tier will change after lockdown whether it be up or down a tier?

@BunsyGirl Essex county council was. Southend and Thurrock were not as they independent unitary authorities. They stayed as a 1.

I'm in Manchester, things are improving but I'm guessing T3 again.

Oh and Liverpool's figures are something like down 30% from last week...

It's all set out here:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-winter-plan

@WhatKatyDidNxt yes, I am quite aware of that thanks as I live in Essex. It was an arbitrary decision by the county council.

I live in Essex as well. Just a bit frustrated / amused by the maps that were circulating showing all of Essex in tier 2! It’s frustrating for me being a non-Tory and living in Essex with it being a sea of blue. But relieved lm not under Essex council

The size of the Conservative vote I think has a bearing.
We should be ok then 😁

I'm in an area which is seeing 600+ cases per 100,000 so think it is inevitable we'll be in tier 3 (was 1 before lockdown).

Some very rough Guestimating

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

If your council are still Purple on this today, I think you will still be T3 still.

If you are Dark Blue you are most likely to be T3, UNLESS your council has had a significant decrease in cases in the last 7 days (have a look at the % decrease). I think you need to be close to fall of at least 20% in the last week. And then it depends on how bad the hospital capacity issue is locally.

Light Blue and you are probably headed for T2 unless your numbers are on the way down.

That would suggest, that most places are going to be T2 or higher based on today's numbers. Obviously there is still over another week to go, but the decision is being made this week...

@WhatKatyDidNxt I live in an area of Essex that has 107 cases per 100,000. Thurrock has 216 per 100,000 and Southend 153. There is absolutely no justification for my area to be tier 2 whilst the others remain 1. However, I suspect that a lot more areas will be in tier 2 from Thursday.

I'm in Liverpool and whilst the direction of travel has been significant in the right direction, because of the years of underinvestment and PFI fuckups hospital situation I predict it will be Tier 3.

Although of course BoJo would like it to be a good news story because of the testing, I don't think it will be

The size of the Conservative vote i think has a bearing

Fuck me ! Liverpool will forever have tier 3 restrictions even after the pandemic if that's the case 🤣🤣🤣

Someone mentioned Kent - I think we are heading for Tier 3 although I assume Medway will be decided separately.

Has anything been said about travelling out of a tier 3 area over Christmas?

We’re in Lancashire and seem to be getting all lumped together so I guess it’s tier 3 for us despite being in an area with a much lower rate (lower than the National average) 😡

Also in Kent and feeling utterly depressed at the thought of tier 3. Our area is still really low and below average for the country 😩

@BunsyGirl my understanding was the different tiers last time, was due to Essex council wanting time dip their snouts in the trough for more money. Rather than actual cases

@JumboShitake

Someone mentioned Kent - I think we are heading for Tier 3 although I assume Medway will be decided separately.

Has anything been said about travelling out of a tier 3 area over Christmas?

The rules for Tier 3 for travel outside the area still only sound advisory according to the diagram put out by no10's twitter.

People will do it, but i think if you are T3 going to T1 you are being unreasonable and somewhat irresponsible tbh (and vice versa) as its not exactly sensible.

Its one thing to go from one T3 to another T3 or even T2 to T3 and something different to go to T1.

Using that graph. Thanks RedToothBrush my town is green but surrounded by dark blue 🤔😪

Ne lincs. We were comfortably tier 2 but cases escalated first week of lockdown
Were sixth highest in the country so assume tier 3.
Past caring now. I've had it. Dd has had it all we do is school and work.
Just have to sit it out I guess.

@Chosennonesneakymincepie

Using that graph. Thanks RedToothBrush my town is green but surrounded by dark blue 🤔😪

You have to look at council level not town level unfortunately.

I am in Suffolk which is green , hopefully that means tier1 , the area I live in has the lowest in England apparently at 49:100000 but the total area is only 79 . My parents are blue though and my eldest son is in dark blue 🙁

Councils will apparently be asked for input but essentially the government will impose measures as it sees fit. According to the winter plan, there are no strict criteria, but the things taken into account are:
Case rates generally
Case rates in the over 60s
The rate of rise or fall in case rates
Positivity rate
Pressure on the NHS in the area

@nosswith

The size of the Conservative vote I think has a bearing. Notice how Rishi Sunak's constituency has not been in Tier 3, for example.

You're bang on with this. Shocked how little people see it. I live in an local authority area which has both a labour and conservative MP. At one point we had stricter measures in the labour MP region of the LA than the conservative despite the figures being worse in the conservative area. It's a joke...

@BunsyGirl I saw an article a while back that said Finch is begging for tier 1 after this lockdown ends. Egg on face springs to mind
Shouldnt have been so greedy.

I knew Boris would have barely clicked close on his Zoom call before people would start with a new raft of unanswerable questions

We can't do anything about iy so why not just wait and see, they clearly said the tiers wont be announced yet so no one's going to be able to tell you.