Oxford initial news

[tobee]

Covid-19: Oxford University vaccine shows 70% protection www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55040635

Details about the trial interim results from the Oxford web page

www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-23-oxford-university-breakthrough-global-covid-19-vaccine

Fucking hell. Get informed before spouting utter shit. Honestly.

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@ForBlueSkies

Mentioned in this article here:

apple.news/A0UAQrx6oTYqrZAuDycjBlg[/quote]
Thank you. But that’s a news report, there’s no new data in that. Nothing more specific than the direct quote earlier that: “There is just a hint in the data at the moment that those who got that regime with higher protection, there is a suggestion that it was also able to reduce asymptomatic infection.”

This is consistent with my concerns too: “The Oxford team declined to say on how many cases of disease the 90 per cent efficacy finding was based. Some experts said that they were sceptical that it would reach that efficacy level when more results came in.”

I know it sounds like I’m being negative, but I just want as much transparency as possible from all of them. There are big commercial interests at stake here.

Oxford page

www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-23-oxford-university-breakthrough-global-covid-19-vaccine

Oxford will now support AstraZeneca in submitting both the interim Phase III efficacy data and the extensive safety data to all regulators across the world, including in the UK, Europe and Brazil for independent scrutiny and product approval, including for emergency use. Many of these regulators have been reviewing the trial data on a rolling basis during the trial. In parallel, Oxford is submitting the full analysis of the Phase III interim data for independent scientific peer review and publication

These data also suggest that this half dose and full dose regimen could help to prevent transmission of the virus, evidenced by lower rates of asymptomatic infection in the vaccinees, with further information to become available when trial data are next evaluated.

The interim Phase III data builds on Oxford’s phase I/II peer-reviewed trial results which have shown that the vaccine induces strong antibody and T cell immune responses across all age groups, including older adults, and has a good safety profile.

@ForBlueSkies

But the data will be released, it just hasn't been yet. Presumably the researchers wouldn't say that there was a reduction in asymptomatic infection in the vaccinated groups if there was wasn't because that will be fairly quickly disproved when the data is released. Would seem like an odd thing to do.

At the moment the information is thin on the ground but it has only been a few hours!

At least the headline data and numbers of people who caught Covid in each group are in the AZ press release here www.astrazeneca.com/media-centre/press-releases/2020/azd1222hlr.html

The issue is just that the “good” results come from a relatively small sample size. 2700 vaccinated individuals in the UK, from which (if my maths is correct) 3 likely acquired covid with symptoms and 30 acquired covid and did not.

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@ForBlueSkies

But the data will be released, it just hasn't been yet. Presumably the researchers wouldn't say that there was a reduction in asymptomatic infection in the vaccinated groups if there was wasn't because that will be fairly quickly disproved when the data is released. Would seem like an odd thing to do.

At the moment the information is thin on the ground but it has only been a few hours![/quote]
I agree. But it can’t be too conclusive if it’s just “a hint” according to their chief investigator. I imagine that’s back to the sample size again. Such a shame the pool that received the half-dose first was not larger.

3 likely acquired covid with symptoms and 30 acquired covid and did not

Thos statement is wrong. The headline results are not about symptomatic vs asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. The end result is symptomatic COVID, the others likely have no infection.

Oxford have swabbed weekly so will have detailed data on asymptomatic spread at a later stage. I think you've misunderstood the trial design.

The report on their website says:

"These data also suggest that this half dose and full dose regime could help to prevent transmission of the virus, evidenced by lower rates of asymptomatic infection in the vaccinees, with further information to become available when trial data are next evaluated."

So looks as though they need further analysis to be certain but I'd suggest they must have a reasonable indication of something significant otherwise there would be no need to mention it at all, they could just say it was too early to say definitively.

@cathyandclare

3 likely acquired covid with symptoms and 30 acquired covid and did not

Thos statement is wrong. The headline results are not about symptomatic vs asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. The end result is symptomatic COVID, the others likely have no infection.

Oxford have swabbed weekly so will have detailed data on asymptomatic spread at a later stage. I think you've misunderstood the trial design.

Yes, I mistyped sorry. I meant 3 of the 2700 vaccinated acquired C19 and were symptomatic. And 30 of the control group.

I think most people need to stop spouting bollocks, unless you have a PhD in the relevant medical field. Results are great. End of.

@WindChimeTinkle

I think most people need to stop spouting bollocks, unless you have a PhD in the relevant medical field. Results are great. End of.

It’s hard to be informed when so little information is actually released to support the triumphant headlines. But you do uncritical you.

I think developing a vaccine which is 90% effective (that's with 1½ doses) which can be delivered, refrigerated, to the developing world at a tenth of the cost of the American vaccine quite brilliant really.

Yep if anyone is still moaning as per usual time to emigrate I reckon.

That was to everything we do is shit comment.

It's very good news.

That does suggest a statistically significant difference between the main group and the sub group. If there were 3 cases in the vaccine group and 30 in the control group that means 90% effective.

To get similar results to the main group (62% effective) there would have to have been 11 cases in the vaccine group compared to 30 in the control group.

Such a big difference for half dose vs full dose (3 vs 11) is quite unlikely to happen by random chance, that does suggest there's likely to be efficacy gains to be made by optimising the initial dose.

Need more data though!

This is indeed great news. And even better to hear on the news that Oxford will be allowing access to developing countries on a no profit basis. This is literally going to to save millions of lives worldwide. So proud that Britain was so involved in the creation of this vaccine. I also believe that once the dose ratio is worked out fully it will also match the other two vaccines at 90 plus % effectiveness.

A massive well done and thank you to everyone involved - scientists and volunteers nad everyone else who played a part.

Christ, one quote from a briefing the other week;

Do NOT let the perfect become the enemy of the good

This news today is fantastic news, we do not need a "perfect" vaccine, we need one that is Good Enough, good enough to stop this pandemic. The future generations of vaccine will be better and improved upon but we need to work with what we have now, we are up shit creek basically, we have 3 choices in this world, 1) risk getting Covid, 2) live alone in a cave forever or 3) get the vaccine that is offered to you. I know which one I am going for.

It is brilliant news. I work for pharmaceutical companies and they get a lot of flak. But most people who work in pharmaceuticals do it to improve lives, not to profit shareholders.

MASSIVE THANKS to all who took part in the trial and the scientists etc.

Well done @Potager and colleagues

AstraZeneca are tanking in the markets today as there is speculation the vaccine will not be licensed in the US:

SVB Leerink analyst Geoffrey Porges said the treatment may never gain approval from US regulator the FDA, and said Astra had highlighted results from a “relatively small” number of patients

Adam Feuerstein
@adamfeuerstein
SVB Leerink analyst Geoff Porges sharply critical of $AZN #Covid19 vaccine, calls announced efficacy results “embellished” and raises questions about safety data disclosures.

Porges predicts the vaccine will never be licensed in U.S

The combination of lower effectiveness, a troubled trial design and the occurrence of severe safety events make Porges believe the product has no future in the U.S. The analyst also said Astra and Oxford officials would be “roundly criticized” for their lacking safety disclosure that was “hardly reassuring.”

www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/23/markets-live-latest-coronavirus-news-pound-euro-ftse-100/

@ForBlueSkies
More for the UK.

Think I have more faith in the scientists rather than an "analyst"

What a surprise the US tanks the much cheaper non US vaccine!