Oxford initial news

[tobee]

Covid-19: Oxford University vaccine shows 70% protection www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55040635

@ForBlueSkies

It’s 62% with two full doses. 70% averaged overall when you include the smaller subgroup that had a half then full dose (2,741 people). Given the size of that subgroup the 90% efficacy rate won’t have the best confidence interval.

I’m pretty disappointed TBH. This is the vaccine most of us will be getting and it looks like a chunk will still get symptoms and be able to pass it on. Do we know if the elderly that were enrolled later were included in these numbers? The US based recipients were not.

But we have no idea about transmission from the other vaccines yet. They have said it appeared to reduce transmission, particularly in the sub group.

The results of the sub group are statistically significant with p

Have just registered my interest with Bring Back Staff to become a vaccinator. Anyone else in the same situation?

Moderna and Pfizer are much more reassuring with 30-40,000 participants in each, whereas somehow this only has 11K. Odd given they were the first to start trials.

They haven't included the American arm yet because the FDA put that on hold for a long time. Their website says that more and more information will come in. They froze and analysed on 4.11.

There are very low levels of infections in both groups though.

You're including all the controls when talking about M and PF and only the vaccine group when talking about AZ.

I think it’s wonderful. I understand it’s 70% effective in preventing transmission - which is good, as it will massively reduce community transmission. Alongside the most vulnerable having Pfizer (if that’s what they do), it will do great things.

Also, this whole thing is driven by hospitalisations - “protect the NHS”. Those who contracted covid with the vaccine were not hospitalised, so from the perspective of rescuing society from these crippling distancing and lockdown rules, it does the job. If people aren’t hospitalised, or only rarely, the NHS won’t be overwhelmed.

@cathyandclare

You're including all the controls when talking about M and PF and only the vaccine group when talking about AZ.

True, my bad.

Overall I wish they’d all release the full data they have, so proper comparisons can be made. How many people in the half-dose regime actually got sick? Maths I’ve seen on Twitter indicates that it would have been just 3 cases. And instead of hinting at a reduction in asymptomatic cases why not detail that? My understanding is that the cases formally included in this press release were all symptomatic.

One of their spokesmen said: “There is just a hint in the data at the moment that those who got that regime with higher protection, there is a suggestion that it was also able to reduce asymptomatic infection.”

That’s vague.

I agree. But they have said they'll publish in a peer reviewed journal for full scrutiny. And to be fair it obtains more detail and is less vague than the other press releases.

Is it too soon to ask that those planning the logistics include options for drive-through / open-air vaccinations.
Not everyone will be interested, but a large proportion will want to ensure that they don't put themselves at risk getting the vaccination (e.g. in a GP surgery or indoor space).
Please and thank you.

@ChocBeforeCock

I think it’s wonderful. I understand it’s 70% effective in preventing transmission - which is good, as it will massively reduce community transmission. Alongside the most vulnerable having Pfizer (if that’s what they do), it will do great things.

Also, this whole thing is driven by hospitalisations - “protect the NHS”. Those who contracted covid with the vaccine were not hospitalised, so from the perspective of rescuing society from these crippling distancing and lockdown rules, it does the job. If people aren’t hospitalised, or only rarely, the NHS won’t be overwhelmed.

No, it is not 70% effective at reducing transmission. Nobody knows how much any of these vaccinations will effect community transmission at this point. They reduce the development of symptoms.

So a person gets the virus and 70% the time if they’ve had the Oxford virus they will have no symptoms, 30% will still get symptoms, usually mild. Because this virus is so often transmitted in the pre-symptomatic phase we just can’t know how much spread will be reduced after vaccination. In phase I of the Oxford trial involving chimps they were still able to transmit the virus despite having reduced symptoms.

70% effective but (a) cheap and (b) can be stored and transported in normal refrigeration units not the super-special -70C equipment that the other vaccine needs means that it will protect vastly more people than the other recent candidates. You don't need 100% of people protected to stop a pandemic.

^ Oxford vaccine not virus. 🤦‍♀️

@cathyandclare I understand that the US put a hold on the US trial due to safety concerns at one point. But the people who'd already had the jab didn't un-have it at that point, so how come that has prevented them from including the data from the US?

@Firefliess I read that many people in the USA hadn't had their second dose when it was put on hold, therefore affecting their involvement in the trial. I think they were going to continue with them as a separate arm of the trial.

Not sure of the number break down though, I'll try and find the report I read,

AMAZING news - well done to the scientists. Proud to be British today!

AHH, that makes sense @cathy.

@whothehell

Is it too soon to ask that those planning the logistics include options for drive-through / open-air vaccinations. Not everyone will be interested, but a large proportion will want to ensure that they don't put themselves at risk getting the vaccination (e.g. in a GP surgery or indoor space). Please and thank you.

I agree entirely.

If people have their own transport, this would be the ideal way to get vaccinations does quickly, in the same way as the testing is/has been done. Then, anyone who can’t access this type of centre can be accommodated in GP surgeries/pharmacies etc.

I really want to feel positive about this but I can’t shake off the initial disappointment. Also the feeling that, if this had been developed elsewhere, we would buy one of the more effective ones and not pin our hopes on this one.

@ForBlueSkies

The initial report does suggest that there were fewer asymptomatic infections in the vaccinated group suggesting that transmission was reduced not just severity of infection.

@Karmatime

I really want to feel positive about this but I can’t shake off the initial disappointment. Also the feeling that, if this had been developed elsewhere, we would buy one of the more effective ones and not pin our hopes on this one.

I feel the same.

I just hope the government is objective and doesn’t get caught in its usual trap of British exceptionalism. No matter how you cut it this vaccine is not quite as good as the other two.

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@ForBlueSkies

The initial report does suggest that there were fewer asymptomatic infections in the vaccinated group suggesting that transmission was reduced not just severity of infection.[/quote]
Do you have a link? I can only find the press release, which has very limited info. 🙂

@Karmatime

I really want to feel positive about this but I can’t shake off the initial disappointment. Also the feeling that, if this had been developed elsewhere, we would buy one of the more effective ones and not pin our hopes on this one.

I shared your feeling, but honestly I think that is an artefact of the initial reporting, which put “70% effective” in the headline. Since changed on the BBC to “highly effective.”

I mean, given what they have discovered about the two dosing strategies, what will be rolled out will be the small dose/full dose one, and it will be around 90% effective. Who in their right mind would roll out two equal doses on the face of this data?

@ForBlueSkies

Mentioned in this article here:

apple.news/A0UAQrx6oTYqrZAuDycjBlg

Here's the report on the trial pause in the USA

www.statnews.com/2020/10/06/astrazeneca-covid19-second-dose-trial-vaccine/

oops