Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

Previous thread here:

Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

Voting tomorrow on tiers

If no go then what? Feels quite a big deal

@MarshaBradyo

It's will..., the numbers are there to get it through

[quote PrayingandHoping]@MarshaBradyo

It's will..., the numbers are there to get it through [/quote]
On thanks Praying

I think there will be a significant minority voting against but they will get it through. I am actually hoping that they insist on weekly reviews though rather than every two weeks

@Bathroom12345

Could I ask please. The number of CV19 deaths - is that after an actual test on the body - sorry about being so graphic.

Its just I get concerned re these stats. If for example someone had terminal cancer or died in a car crash and sadly passed away if they tested positive (with an actual test) then that would be the cause of death.

@Bathroom12345

I'd not worry too much about car crashes. In 2019 that was around 1700 people in the UK, and in 2020 will be lower due to less usage. So even if every single one had been tested positive and then crashed the car it wouldn't be significant when we're taking about currently almost 60k deaths.

Ugh , Laurence Fox isn't worth anyone's oxygen. I see Rita Ora has been partying too!

At least she apologised, I can't see him doing that.

Take it these aren't the 'responsible and well liked' slebs that will be promoting the vaccine!

Nothing would surprise me anymore.

Bathroom the otherside of that is if someone dies of covid 29 days after a test then it isn't counted as a covid death and I think that is more likely than someone testing positive and then dying in a car crash 28 days later.

I couldn't work out the stats but I bet you'd find them reassuring.

I agree. Two people I know whose relatives died 6 weeks after testing positive (and clearly FROM Covid, not WITH it) are upset that their deaths are not counted in the daily figures, only in the ONS larger ones.

@Piggywaspushed

if Hancock really thinks all unis are doing testing, he really hasn't done any research.

@Piggywaspushed after eight months you've surely realised its all about the soundbite!

Reality seldom has a part to play.

On a more serious point one of our regional universities was on the news today. Testing capacity 800 per day. Testing for 12 days. Recommended that each student has 2 tests.

So effectively a capacity of 4,800 students if each tested twice.

Quick check on HESA tells me it has over 13,000 undergrads to start with, before the 3000+ postgrads get added in.

Those numbers don't quite add up.

There are over 2 million students enrolled in higher education. There is no way they can all be tested within a week.

Some universities and workplaces are doing "sample pooling".

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.06.20052159v2

Samples taken from several students are combined and tested in aggregate (using one test). If the result for a group comes back positive, university / workplace will test individuals within the sample.

In fact, sample pooling could work pretty well with the 4,800 test capacity and 16,000 students to test. The usual "pool" includes 4 to 8 individual samples.

I don't think they're doing sample pooling with the uni students end of term tests. I think it requires more organisation, and time to then re-test individually if anyone in a pool (usually a household) tests positive. I think it may also require the kind of tests they do in labs, which are more sensitive.

But i really don't know why, when they have not got enough tests to go round, they're giving students two each. If they can go home if the second one is positive, what's the point in the first one? And wouldn't it be much more effective to give as many students as possible just one test each?

Tmrws I was wondering too @Firefliess

Don't know where that initial word can from!

DH came home from work today with his quota of rapid tests for the next 3 months - they’re getting all the hospital staff to test themselves twice a week. Feels like this was the sort of step that was being announced as happening a looooong time ago, but I’m happy it’s now a reality at last.

Blimey, Keir Starmer says Labour MPs will abstain in the vote on the new tier system tomorrow.

(Parliamentary data!)

New thread please, this one's nearly full!

New thread has been started

Data & analysis thread, started 1 December www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4094721-data-analysis-thread-started-1-december