Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

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Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

The extract from the ONS survey on the Milton Keynes issue:

This analysis does not count as positive those swab results from the laboratory at Milton Keynes where only the single ORF1ab gene was detected at visits from 15 to 21 November 2020. The numbers of this very specific type of positive result are generally very few (under 5%), but increased very substantially and abnormally during this short period at the Milton Keynes laboratory only. This is consistent with reported technical issues of PCR primer contamination in samples processed between 19 to 23 November 2020. These results were removed from this analysis.

Bbc are reporting 1300 people were told they were positive when in fact tests were void. Dates same as those winter mentioned so assuming same thing

That all starts to add up thanks @wintertravel1980 @Littlebelina

At the regional level those negative reductions are largely concentrated in London and south east, and the to a lesser extent west mids, east of England and east mids. No impact at all for north east or north west.

That would make sense @boys3 if it was the Milton Keynes lab affected

I found it quite reassuring that they're checking so regularly for anomalies, then following up on individual cases. According to media reports, I am the only one because apparently a specific error identified actually means the whole of Kent might be covid free and it brings into question the entire Tier system.

Speaking of errors which might cause one to question a much bigger and important entity:

Has no one apart from me, on hearing about the mistakenly half dosed 3000 under 55s in the Oxford vaccine trials, thought "Um how on earth can a mistake like that happen - in trials they are continually telling us are extremely rigorous and closely monitored?"

I'm very pro vaccines and otherwise have pretty absolute faith in the regulatory system, even this speeded up version, but this has worried me a little!

This mink situation in Denmark would be farcical, if it were funny. I'm actually quite concerned though that they still haven't finished culling and then popped the bodies into shallow graves near water sources. The opposition think the bodies should be dunked in manure. WTF is wrong with burning them like all other contaminated waste products?
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55101058

@Augustbreeze - the issue was a manufacturing error according to the press release, they told the regulator, and the regulator said they should go ahead with two groups.

How are we looking today then my faithful stats analysers? Still going down? How are we doing for a Friday?

Thanks Mrex, I kept waiting for some explanation or comment but hadn't seen any. That makes me feel a lot better!

@boys3

England 7 day moving average falling at a reasonable pace. To Saturday 21st spec date stands at 16816 down from a peak of 22169 on 13th November. 16816 was last seen around 21st October. It is still however just over double the figure at the start of October (8116) and four times higher than the figure on 21st September (4072). And for really fond memories the figure on 1st September was 1297 - a number already causing concern at the time on the thread!

A way to go still.

Back at the turn of August into September, I remember a number of other posters adamant that an increase in cases wasn't underway. It would have been great to have been wrong about that.

@Augustbreeze - before you get too comfortable there, I believe it was discovered in the initial weeks after the dose was given due to lower side effects (but can't find the paper I read any more to back that up). Thankfully mistakes can work out well.

in my line of industry we usually say "nobody's gonna die, do the patch" - unless it's a medical software. In this case though, I would have thought that this mentality was not acceptable, as actual lives depend on it.
How the bloody hell are we supposed to believe after this n-th fiasco that a vaccine will be safe? that the dosage will be correctly manufactures? that they delivery is okay (both logistics and other aspects)?
(and I'm very pro vaccine, but rather go to germany and get a dose of biontech serum as a eu citizen when/if available. Which is terrible.)

This will just give munition to the 100,000s of people that are already on the fence to get it or not, let alone the hard core anti vaxxers.
Why couldn't they publish this data when it happened? Preempt the shitstorm... it's basic PR 101. They should watch us series involving cia/homeland/police: cover ups never work! Or talk to the ghost of nixon.

I’m not concerned about safety but would like to know why / how it happened, from someone with insight.

Pfizer vaccine apparently can only make so many stops before final destination which limits use in community.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/27/hospitals-england-told-prepare-early-december-covid-vaccine-rollout-nhs?fbclid=IwAR2L3ecbkslmZ6vzSOBPD1tlsyaX9Yh4cSkQ06fF7fxltaofz8d5zWLOsK4

Pfizer one realistically does
Not sound like globally it's going to have a big impact.

Science may be great, but not practical

@TheSunIsStillShining - if you mean the mistake in dosing being published when it happened it was. It was in the press that there had been a dosing error and quite widely reported at the time.

Separately my borough’s numbers have plummeted the last few days in a way that is extremely pronounced.

I think mistakes and errors in research do often result in good conclusions. Isn't that how penicillin was found?

Mistakes do happen, but then they use them if possible. So in this case, rather than discarding that group, they decided to look at them as a separate group and study that. They've been honest and upfront about it, so it doesn't concern me at all.
If they start hiding the mistakes-which they could have done, then that's when you worry.

I would be more worried about the US one simply because over there there is so much financial pressure to be the first that they can be tempted to skip steps or cover up mistakes rather than admitting them.

Cases in Leeds have fallen dramatically too. Not soon enough to get out of Tier 3 though.

The Imperial vaccine will be interesting next year. It's RNA (potentially fewest side effects for highest efficacy), cheap and now stable in the fridge: www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/imperial-college-team-work-keep-rna-coronavirus-vaccine-fridge/.
That sounds like the game changer for long-term vaccines. They're recruiting, but won't have me (breastfeeding).

That sounds promising MRex

I might sign up, will check it out. Weirdly (?) a bit nerve wracking to be on a trial but means you get one ;

Love how we’ve moved on from learning about virus variables to vaccine ones, have learnt a lot.

Or potentially get one might be control group

Looking at that articles linked I had missed that Pfizer hadn’t tested on older people. It says unknown.

Also for ‘how effective - 70 - 90 per cent (dependant on dosage)’ for Oxford AZ. Which isn’t quite right?

15,871 cases / 479 deaths / 1451 hospitalised / tests don't update at the weekend.

I'm happy we're running a solid 25% below the week before. Would be great if this can continue this week. (For a personal cava moment, my immediate area is now light green heading for weird yellow, woot for weird yellow!)

Is the weird yellow that inexplicably fashionable baby poo colour?

Chartreuse? 😆