Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

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Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

Do we know why Slough has been put into tier 3 and separated from the rest of Berkshire which is in tier 2?

Slough was previously in tier 2 whereas the rest of Berks was tier 1. The rate was a lot higher then. Not sure now

@MRex I'm not aware of any useful data on how commuter patterns have changed since lockdown. But generally speaking manual/customer facing jobs are less well paid than office based jobs. And people are willing to commute longer distances for better paid jobs. So you would expect to see a reduction in the longer distance commuting (eg from Kent or Sussex into central London) and less of a reduction of more local commuting, especially by car (less risky than public transport)

Slough does seem to have been treated oddly, differently from the rest of Berkshire. Can't help thinking that the rest of Berkshire is full of posh landed types who consider Slough as nothing to do with them and will complain to their mates in parliament if they're dragged down because of it.

12155 / 215

Last Sunday was 18662 and 398

But quite an increase in courier travel which can cover a wide area

@Pahrump

12155 / 215

Last Sunday was 18662 and 398

Good direction, good to see

12,155 UK cases today. That's definitely heading the right way. 18,662 last Sunday. So a 30%+ drop

Patients in hospital looks to becoming down too, although too early to see if itsa trend. But if cases are going down then people being hospitalised should continue to drop too.

@Barbie222

Slough was previously in tier 2 whereas the rest of Berks was tier 1. The rate was a lot higher then. Not sure now

Whereas central Beds was tier 1 and Luton tier 2 and they've both been put in tier 2 even though CB numbers are on the good side and Luton numbers are on the bad side. The main hospital they share is not doing well (I have a friend who is an ICU nurse.)

Luton should have been tier 3 every day of the week. They have always struggled with the numbers and it's never effected the surrounding areas. Tbh I think majority people who live in Luton work there and not many people go in for work.... generally speaking. May be why it's been this way

Last Sunday shows 279k tests were done and todays figure is 383.5k so thats a better ratio too

Numbers are looking great all round, and the map is pleasingly lacking in purple!
A map of hospital occupancy and capacity would be a good thing to have. Always seems to be the statistic with least transparency yet it’s probably the best indicator of how an area is faring

On the issue of Slough. Slough is an upper tier council area, the old Berkshire hasn’t existed for...... a long time. Slough, Reading, Wokingham, Windsor and west Berkshire are all separate councils. The rates in slough look to justify Tier 3, and the inter connectivity issue seems to presumably have little weight, which some might be surprised by. Luton which probably should also be Tier 3 therefore is somewhat anomalous.

@Pahrump

Last Sunday shows 279k tests were done and todays figure is 383.5k so thats a better ratio too

That's the tests from last Thursday, they don't seem to update the tests at the weekend.

All the greater Manchester boroughs are also classed as upper tier local authorities.
However I think the difference is that as well as being a county, it’s a “combined authority” where, as I understand it, the 10 local authorities come together on issues such as education and public transport, and have an elected mayor. Fat lot of good that has done us!

Very happy with those cases and agree Luton should clearly be Tier 3.

@Firefliess - regarding commuting; that works for Surrey and parts of Kent; less so for Essex and other parts of Kent where you do get people moving out because London tents are just so high.

I suspect Luton being in tier 2 is a political decision based on the awkwardness of Tory Central Beds and Labour Luton sharing the hospital?

@Piggywaspushed it hasn't stopped Luton being under restrictions before....

That hospital is starting to struggle badly (only positive is my friend said this time people are actually surviving)

I will be telling friends on the border like me to choose a diff hospital (I always do as have always had a dislike for the L&D after bad experience)

No, true praying but that was when it had its own. The thing with these tiers is they take in larger geographical areas.

Anecdotally, much of CBeds is low because people have an aversion to testing... bizarre little pockets in Bedford Borough as well.

Bedford Hospital is not much better. May even be worse!

@Piggywaspushed is Bedford in central beds. I thought it was it's own council....?

I didn't realise how bad L&D was until I spoke to the ICU nurse today (although the gov report did mention it wasn't great).

Glad I go to Stoke. I know nurses there too and things much calmer.

No, but bits of Bedford Borough are in Central Beds...!

Weird!

I haven't heard if any testing aversion though with people I know in CB.

I genuinely think it is a real localised Luton issue. I think we'd know by now anyway if it wasn't this has been going on for so long

Ah, well working in a school would introduce you to middle class test aversion...