Data and analysis thread, started 12 November

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

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Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4064113-Data-and-Analysis-Thread-started-Oct-29

Regular lurker but I frequent poster, didn't want to lose the threads.

Luton and Slough are very similar demographicly - both surrounded by rural, very wealthy areas. Both commutable to London, but not where you'd choose to live if you had a high paid city job. Both popular with lower income commuters, including keyworkers, and a lot of local employment too. Both also places where extended families settle - Asians in particular in Luton. Luton is also a unitary authority ,(like Slough) so not really clear why you'd pick Slough out and not Luton for tier 3 if rates are similar.

It's interesting.... you're slightly diff side to me. And over here people just don't feel that way 🤷‍♀️ I know loads of people who have been tested

resurrected from a while back the decile chart, weekly since the start of September, current week not colour coded as it is clearly not complete yet in terms of specimen date cases being reported through.

It is worth stressing that whilst cases are clearly falling in England overall the levels are still pretty atrocious. Whilst being at 200 cases per 100,000 is better than being at 400 cases per 100,000 and a significant percentage decline all it really is is a move from staggeringly awful to still really bad. Even with the current decline we've still yet to drop below 10,000 cases a day (based on specimen date).

Not intending to be negative, but a sense of reality does need to be maintained.

@boys3

That is a very good point.
Remember how we were all horrified that first lot down the back of the sofa at about 13k?

It's very easy to think "lower numbers, over the worst" when actually the data last week was worse than the week after the missing data when it looked worryingly high at the time... it wasn't long before the reaction was more along the lines of "only 20k must be improving."

[quote Witchend]@boys3

That is a very good point.
Remember how we were all horrified that first lot down the back of the sofa at about 13k?

It's very easy to think "lower numbers, over the worst" when actually the data last week was worse than the week after the missing data when it looked worryingly high at the time... it wasn't long before the reaction was more along the lines of "only 20k must be improving."[/quote]
Felt quite shocked then to realise that I've actually been thinking that it's getting better without actually quantifying it You're both right that numbers are still far from anywhere near good and maybe I need to keep an eye on the big picture rather than the leaderboard. Four days worth of socialising doesn't bode well with the figures as they stand. Thanks for the insight.

I think we all started to get a bit anxious when UK cases approached 5k a day!

To keep myself from thinking "oh doing great wrt no numbers" I've set the limit to 5k/day when I can book a dentist appointment. At that point it's going to be relatively safe(ish) hopefully.

30% fall in cases - combination of tiers and lockdown

On average. Even higher NE and NW with up to 50% fall

Still high so keep downward pressure needed especially pre Christmas

React study

Wow, a snippet from Calabria (Italy): "two health commissioners for the region were fired within the past month. One was sacked after he called face masks useless and said the only way to catch the virus was to kiss an infected person with a tongue for 15 minutes."
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55098415

The figures are still stubbornly high, and will take more time to come down. I personally would like a figure of below 10/100,000 in my borough to feel confident being with PIL (they have health conditions) or see a dentist, which I believe will take until significant vaccinations or Spring to reach UK-wide, but may be only a few weeks away locally.

In some good environmental news to cheer us all up, did you all see that the beavers built a dam on Exmoor for the first time in 400 years? www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-55125932

It is worth stressing that whilst cases are clearly falling in England overall the levels are still pretty atrocious. Whilst being at 200 cases per 100,000 is better than being at 400 cases per 100,000 and a significant percentage decline all it really is is a move from staggeringly awful to still really bad. Even with the current decline we've still yet to drop below 10,000 cases a day (based on specimen date).

Agreed. I've had a few people locally complain about being in Tier 2 and I put it this way - over the past month several days have seen a death rate from a mostly preventable disease in excess of the total deaths from covid in S Korea since the pandemic began (and their population is only slightly lower than England). As a nation, we increasingly seem OK with that level of preventable death. I'm not, so I'm glad we're in Tier 2.

Friends around the world can't believe we're coming out of 'lockdown' with our cases so high. One friend has just moved into the 'red zone' in her district with cases 1/5th ours in Tier 2.

It’s up to MPs and they reflect their constituents. Not what other countries / friends are doing.

The pressure is there because MPs are feeling it.

Vote tomorrow I believe

Restrictions vary a lot between countries and Tier 2 is quite restrictive with the changes made from the Sage analysis of the first round. My view is that we need to look at restrictions based on whether they actually work to bring down infections, rather than what anybody thinks about them. At the moment, rates are dropping; if they go up again across many Tier 2 areas then something's wrong with the mix still. I would argue for more enforcement, on the police side we've seen many fines for parties but I think we haven't seen enough focus on Local Authorities actually closing down the businesses that don't follow covid guidelines, so that the careful businesses don't have to be punished by closures along with the idiots.

I also wish there could be greater maturity from the general public and MPs to enable different restrictions within local areas and reduce movement between them accordingly. I guess we'll see how it works for Slough in Tier 3, but it clearly ought to be possible in more areas of the country without the chorus shouting that it "makes no sense" there aren't the same restrictions up the road as in their higher case area, so the teens are having a sleepover and they'll have mum come over for lunch.

12330 cases

205 deaths (it’s a Monday of course)

I wonder if the police will be having a word with Laurence Fox after his bragging about his big lunch with a group of friends with lots of hugging. He's a great example.

Looking just at England 95% of cases cover specimen dates from the past three days, mainly Saturday and Friday.

Last Thursday and Friday both below 12000 cases, Friday will probably exceed that over the next day or so but still unlikely to be much over 13000, if that.

Friday 20th was 14464 so at the moment just over 20% lower, but likely to end up at maybe 11% to 14% lower which is perhaps a smaller fall than we might have otherwise hoped for.

I would expect Saturday, currently 6488 to come out certainly below 10000. And hopefully with at least a 20% week on week fall.

Could I ask please. The number of CV19 deaths - is that after an actual test on the body - sorry about being so graphic.

Its just I get concerned re these stats. If for example someone had terminal cancer or died in a car crash and sadly passed away if they tested positive (with an actual test) then that would be the cause of death.

@Bathroom12345

Could I ask please. The number of CV19 deaths - is that after an actual test on the body - sorry about being so graphic.

Its just I get concerned re these stats. If for example someone had terminal cancer or died in a car crash and sadly passed away if they tested positive (with an actual test) then that would be the cause of death.

There are two figures, see here: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

Another Downing st briefing due to start shortly. Matt Hancock leading I think so expect far less mixing of metaphors.

@boys3

Another Downing st briefing due to start shortly. Matt Hancock leading I think so expect far less mixing of metaphors.

I wonder what it will be

Always makes me nervous.

Ugh , Laurence Fox isn't worth anyone's oxygen. I see Rita Ora has been partying too!

Take it these aren't the 'responsible and well liked' slebs that will be promoting the vaccine!

My DM (irony klaxon ahead!) in NYC says the US press is full of how high British cases are and how everything is on the rise here.

@Piggywaspushed

My DM (irony klaxon ahead!) in NYC says the US press is full of how high British cases are and how everything is on the rise here.

Bit of a lag in reporting!

Conclusion
Three weeks into the second national lockdown in England there has been a ~30% proportionate reduction in prevalence overall, with greater reductions in the North.

It is interesting that this press conference isn't on the main channel.

if Hancock really thinks all unis are doing testing, he really hasn't done any research.

I do rather like it that one of their voices is called general messenger!!